As promised I have been checking several models and realtime observations out. What I see is another TEASER for Houston and a real chance for a mixed bag of sleet, freezing rain, or ice pellets, with maybe a few flakes thrown in on and north of a line that will run from SA to College Station, to Lufkin and ENE to NE from there.
Some models are showing frozen precip all the way to the coast of TX, but with the upper air mass as warm as it is over the Southern 1/3 of TX I don't see that happening. However, areas of N and NE TX may have a SIGNIFICANT snow event tonight and tomorrow if the models verify, which they usually do this close in. I'm talking up to 6"-7.5" of snow in NE TX and less elsewhere(basically the further west you go). Upper air temps do support snows across the N part of TX on a Lubbock to San Angelo to Waco to Longview line. Below that line what is currently falling is more than likely a mix of freezing rain, sleet and ice pellets.
For SE TX even though the frozem precip. could possibly approach the Houston area to as close as 75 mi or so I do not see any frozen precip for the SE TX area as a whole. With lows in the mid 30's in the morning the possibility of frozen precip. for our area will depend on the amount of moisture available more than anything. The disturbance that is causing the current precip over TX is moving NE at relatively fast clip and taking everything with it.
Oh well, maybe next year!!
