AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
130 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2003
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 984 LOW OVER C KY...WHICH IS KEEPING A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING NW WINDS 20 MPH. VIS SAT
SHOWS BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM LCH...POE...SHV.
...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AHEAD NEXT WEEK...
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION...AND WINDS SUBSIDING
GREATLY AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. JUST AS FAST AS THIS ONE
EXITS...ANOTHER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WITH A SFC LOW OVER THE N
ROCKIES WILL BE SWINGING SE SUN...MOVING ACROSS OK/AR/TN REGION.
FORTUNATELY...THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THRU SUN NIGHT.
MON...THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA NE WINDS. IT
WILL START OUT PARTLY CLOUDY. BUT...ANOTHER LARGE DEVELOPING STORM
OFF OF CA WILL EJECT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON/TUE
MORNING. THIS WILL MAINLY BE AN ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA EVENT...AND
DOESN'T LOOK SVR AT THIS TIME. THE ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT HELP
THE AREA WITH ALL THE RIVERS IN FLOOD.
EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK TUE DURING THE DAY...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NEVER
CLEAR AS THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM BEINGS TO MOVE E. THIS WILL BRING
PRECIP BACK TUE NIGHT...AND WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WED THRU EARLY THU.
COULD BE ANOTHER FLOODING EVENT...BUT TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS NOW WOULD
BE IMPOSSIBLE. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF WX PATTERN ACROSS
THE COUNTRY...THE EXTENDED COULD BE OFF BY A DAY OR SO...AS THIS
EVENT IS ONE DAY EARLIER THAN FORECASTED YESTERDAY. AT ANY-RATE...
ANOTHER FRONT MAY MOVE THRU LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...HOLD WITH THE SCA FROM ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON OUT 60
NM...AND SCEC FROM CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND. ALL WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DML
More flooding for Gulf Coast next week
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