A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:

[bfez1]

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SW & COASTAL
MS.SOUTH CNTL.EAST CNTL & SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA THROUGH TONIGHT.

A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SW TX WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
EAST OVER EAST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON & NW LOUISIANA
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SE TX WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER WEST LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON & NORTH
MS TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE TO CREATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SO. MS & SE LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME AREAS NO. OF BATON ROUGE & EXTREME SW MS
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. IN ADDITION.A
SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCURRED FROM SAINT CHARLES TO
SAINT BERNARD PARISHES & OVER PORTIONS OF SAINT TAMMANY PARISH.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST.AN ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 WILL CAUSE EXCESSIVE RUN-OFF
AND FLOODING IN RAIN SOAKED AREAS. ISOLATED STORM TOTALS
THROUGH SAT MORNING COULD REACH 6 TO 8 INCHES.

SOME RIVERS ACROSS SE LOUISIANA & SO. MS ARE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE
REFER TO RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR EACH RIVER BASIN FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

We also have watches now out....for all of you who didnt predict this or lived through a flood up north here....its not any fun at all. First we get 30-40" snow on the ground, then warmth into the 40s and 50s (1996 was devastating) into the 60s and then a few inches of rain spells disaster for rivers downstream here. Ice jams and bends in tributaries are at great risk...I will watch my state and locales for updates and make a thread if need be on this upcoming dangerous situation. Stay Tuned.

[Stormsfury]

We also have watches now out....for all of you who didnt predict this or lived through a flood up north here....its not any fun at all. First we get 30-40" snow on the ground, then warmth into the 40s and 50s (1996 was devastating) into the 60s and then a few inches of rain spells disaster for rivers downstream here. Ice jams and bends in tributaries are at great risk...I will watch my state and locales for updates and make a thread if need be on this upcoming dangerous situation. Stay Tuned.

I saw the potential days out ... and posted on this...the low is continued to be progged to still go west of the region ... thus rain/warmer air.

However, there's one thing that I think will have a chance to save you from devastating flooding this go-around ... [but still 6 hours of heavy precip (of up to 2" of liquid still isn't good for dense snowpack)].

THE DRYSLOT ... I'm seeing the best forcing/RH/Lift occurring ahead of the warm front ... as the warm front blasts northward, I believe this will shut down the heavy precip rather quickly (drizzle/light rain) ... followed by the cold front passage.

As the low continues pulling into NY, wrap-around snows should then occur ...

Confidence was higher in the forecast yesterday ... medium today ...
Stay vigilant and keep us informed Rob ... here's to hopefully that DRYSLOT!...