AUTUMN DIPPING INTO FLA.-- MID-50s WED............
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2003 1:36 pm
says NWS Tampa this afternoon!
West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
125 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 14 2003
Currently...isolated showers over the East Gulf and then mainly over
interior counties. Showers are small and short lived as they
move rapidly eastward at 15 to 20 miles per hour.
- Term (tonight-thurs)--
models seem very consistent over the past several runs for the
timing and strength of next front for early Wednesday. Upper trough
associated with the front will move into the NE U.S. Late tonight
and into southeast Canada on Wednesday. The upper flow behind the trough becomes
zonal Wednesday and Thursday...which makes it a little difficult to buy the
cool and dry guidance temperatures. Will keep isolated probability of precipitation this evening...
mainly for the S forecast area...then no probability of precipitation Wednesday and Thursday behind the front.
Wednesday...main dew point gradient with front moves into the central forecast area by 12z...
then into the S forecast area by late day. Models have dew points dropping into the
lower 50s north forecast area...around 60 central and middle 60s S forecast area...which will feel
much more comfortable. Wednesday night...much cooler with temperatures likely
around 50 for the north forecast area...55 to 60 central and around 60 S forecast area. Thursday...
surface ridge quickly moves east toward the Atlantic due to zonal upper
flow...which allows low level flow to veer to east-northeast. This will
modify temperatures and moisture some...but still comfortable.
- (Fri-tues)--latest models depicting some great Fall weather
for the area. Progressive pattern to move upper trough from the Great
Lakes extending into the Gulf of Mexico Friday. Easterly flow over the
area to slightly increase moisture. Surface cold front to rapidly move
from the Gulf over the area early Sat morning. Vorticity maximum associated
with trough to provide good lift but limited moisture to only produce a
slight chance for convection late Friday/early Sat. Surface high to build
over the region on back side of upper trough to bring another shot of
cool air to the region for pleasant cool/dry weekend conditions.
Temperatures to remain at or below climatology into early next week.
-
Winds and seas expected to increase late tonight and Wednesday behind the
front. For now...have winds around 15 kts...but may need to be
increased into the scec range (15-20 kts). Will wait another forecast
cycle to decide. Winds and seas should subside some by Thursday and
Friday as winds veer to easterly. Another front on target for Sat...with
scec conditions again possible.
- Weather--
min rhs could dip into the middle 30s Wednesday afternoon over the north 1/2 of the
forecast area...but not expecting durations and sustained winds will are
expected to remain just below 15 miles per hour. Slight modification in low
level moisture for Thursday...thus no flags anticipated either.
West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
125 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 14 2003
Currently...isolated showers over the East Gulf and then mainly over
interior counties. Showers are small and short lived as they
move rapidly eastward at 15 to 20 miles per hour.
- Term (tonight-thurs)--
models seem very consistent over the past several runs for the
timing and strength of next front for early Wednesday. Upper trough
associated with the front will move into the NE U.S. Late tonight
and into southeast Canada on Wednesday. The upper flow behind the trough becomes
zonal Wednesday and Thursday...which makes it a little difficult to buy the
cool and dry guidance temperatures. Will keep isolated probability of precipitation this evening...
mainly for the S forecast area...then no probability of precipitation Wednesday and Thursday behind the front.
Wednesday...main dew point gradient with front moves into the central forecast area by 12z...
then into the S forecast area by late day. Models have dew points dropping into the
lower 50s north forecast area...around 60 central and middle 60s S forecast area...which will feel
much more comfortable. Wednesday night...much cooler with temperatures likely
around 50 for the north forecast area...55 to 60 central and around 60 S forecast area. Thursday...
surface ridge quickly moves east toward the Atlantic due to zonal upper
flow...which allows low level flow to veer to east-northeast. This will
modify temperatures and moisture some...but still comfortable.
- (Fri-tues)--latest models depicting some great Fall weather
for the area. Progressive pattern to move upper trough from the Great
Lakes extending into the Gulf of Mexico Friday. Easterly flow over the
area to slightly increase moisture. Surface cold front to rapidly move
from the Gulf over the area early Sat morning. Vorticity maximum associated
with trough to provide good lift but limited moisture to only produce a
slight chance for convection late Friday/early Sat. Surface high to build
over the region on back side of upper trough to bring another shot of
cool air to the region for pleasant cool/dry weekend conditions.
Temperatures to remain at or below climatology into early next week.
-
Winds and seas expected to increase late tonight and Wednesday behind the
front. For now...have winds around 15 kts...but may need to be
increased into the scec range (15-20 kts). Will wait another forecast
cycle to decide. Winds and seas should subside some by Thursday and
Friday as winds veer to easterly. Another front on target for Sat...with
scec conditions again possible.
- Weather--
min rhs could dip into the middle 30s Wednesday afternoon over the north 1/2 of the
forecast area...but not expecting durations and sustained winds will are
expected to remain just below 15 miles per hour. Slight modification in low
level moisture for Thursday...thus no flags anticipated either.
Well cold for Florida anyhow 
Maybe it will make it through 
