Potentially dangerous weather in store this weekend

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Feb 19, 2003 9:11 pm

I decided to stray away from the other thread because after looking at the latest model runs tonight, this is truly looking like a serious flooding threat for the Mid-Atlantic and further up ... Severe weather in the Southland and Southeast ... potential for major flooding in Eastern TN, the Western Carolinas, and the Mid-Atlantic ...

For Details, Go to my website

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 2:33 am

It appears that another cold shot will head to the Deep South for the Feb 25-27 time frame. I would expect snow or at least frozen precip above a line from Huntsville, TX across central LA, just south of Vicksburg, MS and heading ENE towards NE AL on the 25th. This line moves further South(aboout 50 miles) on the 26th for most portions of the South except TX. On the 26-27th another storm begins to brew off of Brownsville, TX and moves NE as it increases in intensity, "landfalling" in Central LA and continuing NE along the approaching front and providing the already cold and snowpacked areas(if it hasn't been washed away) with another dose of snow, hopefully not on the scale of the Blizzard!!

And yes Stormsfury appears to have nailed the potential for severe weather over the S and SE this weekend. Everyone KEEP ALERT AND STAY SAFE!!

HoumaLa · #3 Postby **HoumaLa** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 7:39 am

Friday night is our first mardi gras parade and its going to rain

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 11:37 am

I just updated my prognostic discussion for today (last one I'll issue because it's go time.)

Looks more like a squall line threat and two waves of heavy precip, however, tornadoes still are possible with wind fields favorable for the aforementioned with the stronger cells ... QPF fields look a bit lighter in Eastern TN and the Mid-Atlantic ... heavy rains preceding the warm front, and looking like Eastern TN, through to VA, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic getting dryslotted....

With that said, this morning's runs look a little bit better for the Mid-Atlantic ...

Feb 20th, 2003 Prognostic Outlook (Last one issued on this storm

chadtm80 · #5 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 12:23 pm

Hows it looking for me stormsfury? Looks like we are going to get less than they were thinking the last couple days.

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 12:31 pm

Still looking like thunderstorms, and with some possible severe, however, the models are taking the low further west and north of Florida. The best dynamics may be too far northwest (except the Florida Panhandle and maybe Western Central Florida) ... however, with that said, this is looking like a very strong low ... 995 mb deepening down into the 970's mb range in Central NY by Sunday ...

chadtm80 · #7 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 12:33 pm

Wow. well thanks again for the updates.. Realy appreciate it.

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 12:38 pm

No problem ... (I have to go back to work by 2 pm, so I leaving at 1:30 pm) ...

I have another update then ... if it's anything significantly different, I'll update this on my website.

chadtm80 · #9 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 12:41 pm

Kewl. sounds good. thanks

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 12:45 pm

I heard late saturday afternoon or evening a squall line should be uopn us here. :wink:

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 1:10 pm

Rainband wrote:I heard late saturday afternoon or evening a squall line should be uopn us here.

Are you in the Panhandle?
...or Western Florida.?

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 1:13 pm

New port Richey, Fl west central coast... :wink:

North of Clearwater 8)

chadtm80 · #13 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 1:19 pm

Local News here just said it is going to be severe here sat afternoon

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 1:22 pm

Gotcha ...

12z GFS more aggressive in QPF fields off the West coast of FLorida
12z ETA much less aggressive ...

The 12z GFS depicting a potential squall line, whereas the 12z ETA does not.

ETA
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif
GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

Notice the difference across the West Coast of Florida between the two?

I actually prefer the GFS over the ETA somewhat but confidence is only about medium in this case...

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 1:33 pm

Yea I see that..thanks for the info...as always :wink:

Johnathan

Rainband · #16 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 2:16 pm

FLUS42 KTBW 201030
HWOTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EST THU FEB 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT SPEED OF THE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

MORALES

Amanzi · #17 Postby **Amanzi** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 2:17 pm

AHHH phoey, Im moving to the west coast of FL. FLaming squall lines always end up as dirizil over my house :roll:

There was a mention of possible severe t'storms for the North-eastern portion of FL from the JAX NWS but I have heard that too many times to get excited.

Hey MF what you think bout this, chad, rainband, coldfront77 any fellow floridians what is your take on this weekend for us??? I need some action here, the weather has been down right boring here.......blah. (Not that I want an F3 over my head thank you very much!) But hey.

I cant wait for spring, I am hoping to get some nice thunderstorm cloud pics this year... I took a good one of a funnell cloud last year (which I lost when I got a new hard drive :cry:

)

COOOOMMMMEEE ON I NEED TO HEAR THE RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN MY FLORIDIAN JUNGLE (literaly, you have to fight your way through bushes in summer to get to my front door..lol)

Rainband · #18 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 2:23 pm

Depends on where the low in the gulf develops..at least thats what they said :wink:

Any news on your situation :wink:

Let me know ???Rainband

Amanzi · #19 Postby **Amanzi** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 2:32 pm

8) Hey ya rainband.. Well I hope it gets it's act together and develops in just the right place, with the right dynamics in place, just to give me a little tase of excitement

No, I am still waiting, I have not heard one word from the lawyer...Im getting really nervous now. CAUSE IM NOT GETTING ANY YOUNGER YOU KNOW!!!!!!!!

Rainband · #20 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 2:36 pm

Have faith my dear :wink:

Everything will work out!!! 8)

Potentially dangerous weather in store this weekend

Potentially dangerous weather in store this weekend

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