STORM2K

What do u all think. Will we have a strong negative nao or positive nao this winter. There reports of both but mostly negative nao. Though its impossible to predict nao this far out for the winter. I hope Chicago or anywhere in the Midwest have a winter like last year where we recieved like no snow. So what do u all think. Will we have a strong negative nao this winter or positive. I can only for a negative. But will probably end up positive most of winter like it always usually is.

I say we will have periods of both positive and negative NAO. I don't think it will be primarily one or the other.

MidwestWeather,

Some winters see the NAO primarily negative; others see it primarily positive. While there appear to be cycles where strings of winters see a predominant sign, this is not a new phenomenon. Reconstructed NAO indices that go back as far as 1500 show this tendency.

Finally, neither major snowstorms nor exceptionally snowy months require either a negative or positive NAO. They have occurred with both signs. Intellicast's Joe D'Aleo has written on this with regard to blockbuster East Coast snowstorms.

At some point in the future--unless, of course I forget --I'll touch on this with regard to snowy months.

With regard to Chicago, January 1918 saw 42.5" of snow with a negative NAO for the month; February 1896 received 27.8" with a positive NAO; and March 1926 witnessed 23.1" with a neutral to slightly positive NAO.