Winter Storm Warning for Raleigh, NC

[Suncat]

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
505 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003


NCZ026-027-040-041-076-160032-
CHATHAM-FRANKLIN-LEE-NASH-WAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RALEIGH
505 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003

...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

.TODAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN
MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET LATE THIS EVENING. SOME ICE
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET...BECOMING FREEZING RAIN MIXED
WITH RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. ICE ACCUMULATION OF A QUARTER
INCH...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF RALEIGH. COLDER. TEMPERATURES
STEADY 29 TO 32. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET AND
RAIN...TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION
FOR STORM TOTAL ACCRETION BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH.
TEMPERATURES STEADY 29 TO 32. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN. CONTINUED COLD. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.TUESDAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS NEAR 60.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS NEAR 60.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS 55 TO 60.

$$

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Also this:


RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAIN OVER CENTRAL
CWA. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH OVER
THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE SHORT-TERM MODELS TO BE
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z...AND THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT BY 18Z AT PRESENT LOCATION. THROUGH 00Z TODAY EXPECT
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO OCCUR JUST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH LESSER POPS
SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF NEAR 50 NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHEAST LOOK GOOD. WILL ADJUST WIND GRIDS IN THE NORTHERN TIER TO
REFLECT QUICKER ONSET OF NE WIND FLOW. -BL

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING CENTERS ON HOW QUICK
RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...THE PRECIP AMOUNTS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND HOW MUCH WILL THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS.

ETA MUCH QUICKER PUSHING ARCTIC AIR EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE GFS/NGM. ETA INITIALIZED POLAR HIGH A FEW
MBS TOO STRONG AT 00Z AND TREND CONTINUES AT 06Z PER SURFACE ANALYSIS.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ETA FOR PARTIAL THICKNESS/SURFACE
WET BULB PROGS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANGEOVER TO WINTRY PRECIP CONFINED TO
THE FAR N AND NW COUNTIES THIS EVENING...THEN ENCROACHING FURTHER SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TIMING ABOUT RIGHT.

APPEARS MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILLL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND WESTERN COUNTIES. LIFT
SUPPLIED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS. PARTIAL THICKNESS TREND HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SUGGESTING MAJOR SLEET EVENT FOR THE FAR N AND NW COUNTIES WITH A
RIBBON OF SIGNIFICANT ICING PROBABLE FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE. USING A 3:1 RATIO AND A
CONSERVATIVE QPF OF 1.5 INCHES BETWEEN 00Z SUN-00Z MON SUGGEST SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THE TRIAD OF 3 INCHES. WILL INITIALLY GO WITH A RANGE
OF 2-4 INCHES. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST THIS TOTAL UPWARD.
POTENTIAL FOR GREATEST ICE ACCRETION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
TO JUST WEST OF RALEIGH...AFFECTING THE CHAPEL HILL/DURHAM AREAS. WILL
GO WITH TOTAL ICE ACCRETION OF ONE QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.

TRICKY PART IS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS OVER THE RALEIGH
AREA AND FAR NE PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN RECOVERS AS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW FILTERS MODIFIED MARINE AIR
INTO THE LOW LEVELS. THIS MAY CAUSE PRECIP TO CHANGE FROM FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AT RDU AND RZZ TO MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN BY 00Z MON. FOR NOW WILL
PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE AND GO WITH COLDER GFS AND KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE
SINCE THIS IS LATE THIRD PERIOD. IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO
OCCURS...SLEET/ICE ACCRETION IN THE RALEIGH AREA AND ROANOKE RAPIDS
AREA WILL BE LESS.

SINCE PROBLEMS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH AND NW COUNTIES...WILL UPGRADE WATCH TO A
WARNING WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 12 MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS MID
LEVEL LOW CROSSES NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...CENTRAL NC GETS DRY SLOTTED
TOWARD 06Z. THIS SHOULD END SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR MONDAY...WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY WITH A MENTION OF DRIZZLE OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE NW.

WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING ON TUESDAY. MAY KNOCK TUE
HIGHS DOWN A CATEGORY.

.RAH...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE PIEDMONT AND THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

[Stormsfury]

As someone put it, large sleet pellets in Richmond.

DT said it was sleeting the size of boogers!...*LMAO*

[wx247]

Sounds like some icy problems in NC.

Garrett

[Stormsfury]

Almost into NC ... Roanoke Rapids, NC is 33 and light rain
Mount Airy is 36 and Light Snow.

Asheville, NC is now down to 53, but Jefferson is 36 and RAIN
Hickory is at 34 ... Charlotte started falling like a rock - down to 42.
RAH is 35 ...

[wx247]

It's on its way. It is only a matter of time this evening. Lots of moisture to work with as well.

Garrett

[Stormsfury]

Latest RUC runs are slower than the actual surface observations. The CAD is taking place faster than originally progged. However, warmer temps aloft ... also the RUC has the Canadian High strengthening to 1045 mb - which would support a faster surge southward with the CAD.

From Greenville, SC to CLT to RAH - by early am, expect ZR to develop and significant icing is likely. This is a dangerous situation developing.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
925 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2003

FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE EXCEPT FOR THE POPS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
WEAK AND CONSEQUENTLY PCPN IS MAINLY DRIZZLE EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH
POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHERE THE DEEPENING COLD
LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE SOME INCREASED LIFT OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE TO
LOWER THE SOUTHERN TIER POPS AND INDICATE LIGHT PCPN.

THE SURFACE BASED COLD AIR IS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS PROGS
BUT THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING WAS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER ALOFT...8C...THAN
PROGGED. CHANGEOVER WILL STILL OCCUR...BUT SLIGHTLY LATER THAN
ADVERTISED. NOT SO SURE THAT DROPLETS WILL MAKE IT TO SLEET SIZE
GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE LIFT...AND WILL QUALIFY THE NORTHWEST AS
'ZR POSSIBLY MIXED WITH PL'. LIGHT GLAZE AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD.

.RAH...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

MLM

[JQ Public]

they are now saying not to expect anything til tomorrow evening precip-wise

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Sure is slow and training bigtime on some areas...imagine those rain totals converted to ice/snow!!! Monumental storm!

[wx247]

I agree! That would be a mess if that liquid was frozen :o !

Garrett

[Stormsfury]

Got reports from Knoxville, TN of 8" of rain and mudslides occurring.
Hickory NC reporting Snow with sleet and freezing rain.

Spartanburg, SC has been picking up heavy sleet and some snow at 31 (only supposed to get ZR)

[JQ Public]

widremann3 was reporting mod sleet at times in raleigh. I dunno i haben'tgotten a chance to get out into it yet. We;re at 29 right now and 27 at my local weatherbug station

[JQ Public]

OMG! Light snow falling where i am. It is very light...thought it was drizzle but it is snow!!! Very small flakes blowing arouhnd

[Stormsfury]

JQ, I don't think there's much of a chance of you getting above freezing today ...

[JQ Public]

hehe i know...they need to fix that radar on twc...its showing us just gettting rain.

[Stormsfury]

I usually use Intellicast for precip type radar.
And the local radars (NWS) for actual DZ intensities.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Current.html

[JQ Public]

Thanks stormsfury. Temp of 27 now at the airport with a dewpt of 24 so temps will cont to drop due to the fact that heavy precip still isnt here! Also very windy here with ice laden trees!!!

[Stormsfury]

No problem, JQ ... looks like some heavy DZ reflectivities are heading your way ... I hope it'll be sleet and snow, and not ZR.

[JQ Public]

o boy! http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... krax.shtml

[wrkh99]

I use weathertap.com for radars

and I always have stormlab from interwarn.com up and running