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StormCrazyIowan
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Give Me The Goods!!

#1 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Thu Feb 13, 2003 8:42 pm

I've heard about 100 different forecasts for my area tomorrow! I know there is a Winter Storm Warning, but I'd like any input I can get! :wink:
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#2 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Thu Feb 13, 2003 10:51 pm

No comments? Ok, well, I guess I'll have to figure this out on my own..... :cry: lol, I am just not sure where the rain/ice/snow line will fall over my area!
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Rob-TheStormChaser

#3 Postby Rob-TheStormChaser » Thu Feb 13, 2003 11:01 pm

here ya go.......

WINTER STORM WARNING
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 PM CST THU FEB 13 2003

...WINTER STORM TO BRING SNOW AND ICE TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...
.A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT...AND START TO MAKE THE PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE STORM CENTER AT THE SURFACE WILL THEN TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY...AND TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM...MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AND LIFTED OVER MUCH COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
ON FRIDAY. ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BECOME ALL SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS
THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.

IAZ051>054-063>068-076>078-ILZ007-009-015>018-024-141100-BENTON
IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLINTON IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON
IA-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MERCER
IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTT IA-WASHINGTON
IA-WHITESIDE IL-
SOME CITIES INCLUDED ARE...STERLING...ROCK ISLAND...PRINCETON...
MOUNT CARROLL...MOLINE...KEWANEE...ALEDO...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...
VINTON...TIPTON...SIGOURNEY...MUSCATINE...MARENGO...MAQUOKETA...
IOWA CITY...DAVENPORT...CLINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...BETTENDORF...
ANAMOSA AND MONMOUTH

...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE PRECIPITATION THEN CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MAY RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING
AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE RAIN AND SLEET CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW. AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY. THE COMBINATION OF SOME ICE
ACCUMULATION FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND BLOWING
SNOW...WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
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#4 Postby Rob-TheStormChaser » Thu Feb 13, 2003 11:02 pm

Winter storm warning for Friday through Saturday morning.
Tonight. Partly cloudy this evening. Then becoming cloudy. Low in the mid 20s. East wind 10 to 15 mph.

Friday. Snow. Possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet during the morning. Accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Brisk. High in the lower 30s. East wind 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Friday night. Snow. Total accumulation. 4 to 7 inches. Windy. Low in the lower 20s. Northeast wind 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent.

Saturday. Cloudy with a chance of snow. Brisk. High in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 50 percent.

Saturday night. Partly cloudy. Low in the mid teens.
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#5 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Thu Feb 13, 2003 11:04 pm

4 to 7?!?!?!?!?!?!?! :o You mean I might actually have snow to shovel? YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!!!! :D Thanks Rob, ya made my night! :wink:
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#6 Postby Rob-TheStormChaser » Thu Feb 13, 2003 11:05 pm

More goods!........

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 PM CST THU FEB 13 2003

COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 36 HRS. I'LL GET RIGHT TO THE POINT. THE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 FOR A COMBINATION OF SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION. TO THE NORTH TO ALMOST HIGHWAY 20 MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY SNOW WITH AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80 EXPERIENCING SOME
MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION. WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WEST DBQ AND WEST FOR SNOW...MAINLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE WERE SOME INITIALIZATION ISSUES WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING.
SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF SRN CA/NRN MEX TONIGHT AND NO MEXICAN RAOBS
MADE IT INTO THE MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING. IMPACT THIS HAS ON THE
12Z RUNS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. ETA APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE H3
JET MOVING INTO SRN CA STRONGER THAN THE AVN. THE AVN ALSO HANDLED
THE WARMER H8 TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS BETTER THAN THE ETA. ALSO IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AVN HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON PCPN MOVING THROUGH SRN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ETA IS TO FAR SOUTH. GFS HOLDS THE WARMER
AIR FURTHER SOUTH AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. GFS
MOVES THE 0C H8 ISOTHERM JUST N OF BRL BY 18Z FRIDAY WHILE ETA
PUSHES IT TO ALMOST DBQ. IT'S ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM AIR IN THESE WAA SCENARIOS...BUT WITH
MODELS DEPICTING A MODERATE E WIND NORTH OF THE H8 WARM FRONT AND
SW FLOW TO THE SOUTH...IT APPEARS ETA IS OVER DOING THE WARM AIR.
ALSO ADDING TO THE MIX IS THE UKMET WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS BUT
ALSO KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT PCPN SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA. WILL RELY
MAINLY ON THE GFS THIS ISSUANCE. EXPECT ONSET OF PCPN IN SW CWA
AROUND 12Z WITH PCPN SPREADING NW INTO NRN SCTNS BY LATE MORNING. AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE NORTH EAST PCPN IN N WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO SAT
MORNING WITH BULK OF SYSTEM STILL OVER KS/WRN MO. SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE SOUTH WILL BE BORDER LINE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH AMOUNT OF
PCPN EXPECTED FEEL WARNING IS WARRENTED. MOST OF FORCING WILL BE
DUE TO WAA ADVECTION AND GARCIA METHOD USING THE 295K SURFACE
SUPPORTS SNOWFALL IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE OVER CENTRAL CWA...BUT
WILL SHAVE A LITTLE OFF DUE TO SOME MIXED PCPN EARLY FRIDAY.

EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER OVER SERN HALF OF CWA INTO SATURDAY BUT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE MINOR.

FOR REST OF THE SHORT TERM FCST ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FCST WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SETTING UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS.


MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL TO SWLY U/A FLOW NEXT WEEK BRINGING
MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. UKMET/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS. WEEK WILL GET OFF TO A COLD START
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SLIDES EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAPID
SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL ALLOW
WARMER AIR TO RETURN NORTH WITH LITTLE TIME BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A
SIGNIFICAN COOL DOWN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS GULF COAST WILL
BLOCK MOISTURE RETURN INITIALLY. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME BY MID WEEK
WITH UKMET SUGGESTING BEST MOISUTRE RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY. BASED
ON THIS WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS ALREADY IN EXTENDED FOR WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RIDGE MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY'S MINS. I'LL
LOWER THESE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND GO A LITTLE UNDER MEX WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


.DVN...
IA....WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH
OF
HIGHWAY 20.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR.
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 20.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
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#7 Postby Rob-TheStormChaser » Thu Feb 13, 2003 11:08 pm

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#8 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Thu Feb 13, 2003 11:14 pm

Thanks! I am watching my local NBC station, and they just confirmed all of what you said :D The funny thing about it is, that forecast is twice as much snow as we have had the whole season! And I was ready to give up on Winter!!! :wink:
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#9 Postby Rob-TheStormChaser » Thu Feb 13, 2003 11:24 pm

lol...well in that case...I hope you get buried! We still have a few good weeks left!
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#10 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Thu Feb 13, 2003 11:36 pm

me too :wink:
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#11 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Fri Feb 14, 2003 11:51 pm

So for, about 1", but snow expected all through the night with a total of around 5-8", which would be more than we have had for the entire year! :o
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Rob-TheStormChaser

#12 Postby Rob-TheStormChaser » Sat Feb 15, 2003 9:13 am

You should be getting the brunt of the storm now as I speak!
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#13 Postby breeze » Sat Feb 15, 2003 11:37 am

Looks like you're gonna get the goods, Jacki! LoL - enjoy it! We're 61F and have flood warnings out - while you're shoveling, looks like I'm gonna be rowing!! :wink:
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#14 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Sat Feb 15, 2003 12:23 pm

LMAO Breeze! As of 8:30 we had 4.5" but I think it is time to update, I'll be back in a few with the latest! :wink:
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#15 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Sat Feb 15, 2003 12:28 pm

Okay, a solid 5 inches 8)
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#16 Postby Rob-TheStormChaser » Sat Feb 15, 2003 12:35 pm

Close to a foot in Des Moines
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#17 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Sat Feb 15, 2003 12:42 pm

Them forking bastages!!! LOL, they can have it, I am happy with what I have! Makes for pretty pictures :wink:
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#18 Postby breeze » Sat Feb 15, 2003 12:49 pm

Make a snowangel for me, Jacki! :D

(*Too bad the emoticons don't have a smilie getting hit with
a snowball!)
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#19 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Sat Feb 15, 2003 1:33 pm

HEHE, send your idea to the online invention subimission corp! Ok, only kidding. Coming right up, a snow angel with your name on it! :wink:
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#20 Postby JQ Public » Sat Feb 15, 2003 3:06 pm

Storm Crazy Iowan!?!? How much did ya get? I heard Des Moines got 14"!! That will definitly help your snow and precip droughts. The quadcities are close to illinois right? What are the four cities...i've never figured that out. OH well glad you got the snow...we're gonna get the ice. But right now the front hasn't come thru and it is so nice outside. At least sixty degrees here. No one would ever suspect an ice storm to be coming.
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