STORM2K

The summer solstice was weeks ago, football is coming back, and meteorological fall is now only three weeks away.

That means we’ll soon be migrating to the “Texas Fall 2025” discussion thread for the next season on the calendar!

Bring on north winds, cooler temperatures and those beautiful fall colors. And plenty of football, Halloween and Thanksgiving too!!!!

Hoping ENSO goes neutral/positive. Cold ENSO winters may be warmer than average but they seem to feature one or two hard freezes (below 20F is what I call a hard freeze IMBY), at least since 2021.

Fall weather for me is thinking all about the coming winter. I hope we have some 80F or above days into November. 50F days don't do anything for me.

Yay! I'm excited for the season to begin.

The first sign of an early fall is candy corn on clearance

We made it.... It may get hot again but meteorological summer is over!!!

I went looking for the 2025-2026 Winter thread this morning.....

I guess I just wanted to skip Fall.

Happy Fall Y'all!! This humidity needs to go!! I'm having to grill later today from the driveway because the backyard is too muddy. As soon as the shadows overtake the driveway it's on. Enjoy the day folks.

As South Texas Storms mentioned in the summer thread, what a great way to finish our summer down here in SC TX with three inches of rain falling across the SA metro yesterday evening.

We get a few days to dry out before we turn our attention to what I've been advertising on here for the past week and that is a pacific tropical system off Mexico and moisture associated with that moving over Texas next weekend. This will be something to monitor for a possible flood risk threat especially if we get a frontal boundary timed with it.

86F at 1 pm in Houston, it isn't quite Fall yet but it isn't Summer either.

Getting another thunder-less torrential downpour...

Things look seasonal to below average for the foreseeable future (next 2 weeks), at least for the northern 1/3rd of the state.Though there does appear to be a brief warm up later on in the week that lasts a couple of days at most before a strong front moves in around the weekend. Still need to iron out timing and exact temps though. As these frontal boundary's this time of year love to bounce around.As txtwister78 mentioned we will need to also watch Invest 94E as heavy rain may become an issue if the system gets entangled in the frontal boundary next weekend...

Gotta be the nicest Labor Day in over 10 years here

It was 108 degrees in 2000

Bring on the EPAC recurves

Hey folks. It looks like a good deal of moisture will move to Arizona and Texas from the SW with the remnants of Lorena.

cycloneye wrote:Hey folks. It looks like a good deal of moisture will move to Arizona and Texas from the SW with the remnants of Lorena.

https://i.imgur.com/WQ8ANFE.png

Yeah some of the ensembles have a flood here this weekend

We still haven't fully cleared out btw there's storms nearby right now

Here is the latest track.

We could always use more rain, it's been a wet summer for some so in contrast could create a flooding issue with the remnants of Lorena. Good to see EPAC juice things up early this Fall! With Kiko potentially gunning for Hawaii it's quite active out there. These two events are not happening in isolation, it is a side effect of the sprawling ridge in the Northeast Pacific that has been a staple for some months now.

Probably too early to think about winter analogs but hurricane Manuel in 2013 did recurve and cause some very heavy rain in West and Central Texas in early to mid September.

Definitely a lot of hype already about Lorena impacting our weekend weather

My weather app is very aggressive with cooler temps this weekend.

NWS, hinting by not buying in.

What's the thoughts around here?

HockeyTx82 wrote:My weather app is very aggressive with cooler temps this weekend.

NWS, hinting by not buying in.

What's the thoughts around here?

Seems like there's potential for cooler temps, for sure. Euro isn't as aggressive with the front and potential leftover tropical moisture/rain as the GFS is. If the GFS solution wins, then temps should be lower. I haven't looked at anything else. NWS has a high of 81F for Sunday here which seems reasonable.

We have a few "hot" days coming up tomorrow (93F) and Friday (94F) to get through first.

HockeyTx82 wrote:My weather app is very aggressive with cooler temps this weekend.

NWS, hinting by not buying in.

What's the thoughts around here?

I dunno if it will make it down there but some of the model runs here have us in the 50s Friday afternoon we haven't even had a low in the 50s yet

I'm not sure I believe that(the NWS is closer to 70) but I guess we'll see

The better rainfall does appear to be down in Texas either way