Texas Spring 2024
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2008
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
- Location: Ponder, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
What are you all seeing for tomorrow specifically and where? NTX is a large area and I'm not sure that any single model can sniff out a single Supercell.
Anyone have any graphics?
Anyone have any graphics?
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
- South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4018
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
South Texas Storms wrote:95F at DFW right now. Ties the record high for the day. Brutal.
Was coming just to post this.
Storms or no storms, these past 2 days definitely overachieved in terms of heat.
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- Tropical Depression
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- Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:26 pm
Re: Texas Spring 2024
According to NWS, we just need to survive today, then below normal temps in DFW for the next week. 50's to low 60's dew points Fri-Sun.
(Gotta figure out a way to change my name to Anti-humidity....)
(Gotta figure out a way to change my name to Anti-humidity....)
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- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2024
Starting to get some agitated CU across DFW
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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- Tropical Depression
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
bubba hotep wrote:Starting to get some agitated CU across DFW
As I figured would be the case, too little too late.
Even the cell that managed to bubble up over downtown is struggling.
We'll see what tomorrow brings (if anything). But this just hasn't been DFW's year for severe stuff.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
On another note, in addition to tying the record high, DFW also saw its earliest highest dewpoint ever observed with the dewpoint topping out at 78*F today.
Previous record was also 78*F on 5/13/1995.
Previous record was also 78*F on 5/13/1995.
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- txtwister78
- Category 5
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- Location: San Antonio
Re: Texas Spring 2024
snownado wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Starting to get some agitated CU across DFW
As I figured would be the case, too little too late.
Even the cell that managed to bubble up over downtown is struggling.
We'll see what tomorrow brings (if anything). But this just hasn't been DFW's year for severe stuff.
Yeah you can have all the cape in the world, but if the cap can maintain then it's all just some cool colors on a mesoanalysis map and that's a good thing when you have instability values like this in place. Obviously, that's not the case NE up I-30 and just along the river. Big hailers up there.
Odds look a little better tomorrow a little further south with the boundary sagging into Central Texas perhaps.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Morning lows are more like midsummer lately. Brutal. But continuing the theme of our toothless winter.
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- Category 5
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- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Spring 2024
It goes almost right from slight to enhanced, which to me implies they expect a quick blow-up to severe status, but I could be wrong.
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- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Ponder, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
A tale of two dew points.
Southern half of Tarrant and Dallas are juiced, north of that not so much.
62F dewpoint in Denton, 68F plus Dallas city and south.
Not sure if that will be the line, but HRRR showing some supercells blowing up right along that path which I assume is the front.
Southern half of Tarrant and Dallas are juiced, north of that not so much.
62F dewpoint in Denton, 68F plus Dallas city and south.
Not sure if that will be the line, but HRRR showing some supercells blowing up right along that path which I assume is the front.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Spring 2024
The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.
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- Category 5
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- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Spring 2024
I was under the impression things would be earlier in the day, 1-2 or so, but it has a supercell going right over me in Tarrant around 4. Right when school would let out, so yay for that. NAM doesn't really fire anything in DFW. But, I am leaning on SPC for their expertise.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
The last few runs of the HRRR, which has the most bullish of all the Hi-Res models for DFW, seem pretty consistent with keeping the severe activity south of I-20 and west of I-35.
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- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
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- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
Things getting active early, the severe warned storm out west is 3 hours early, in location and severity, in comparison to the latest hrrr. Not sure what if any downstream impacts that has
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2008
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
- Location: Ponder, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
That one storm is turning right, I'm surprised it's not Tor Warned. Looks to have some rotation.
North of Graham
North of Graham
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2024
The cell out near Jacksboro needs to be watched if it makes a right turn toward DFW.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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