Ice event for NC next weekend?

[Suncat]

Early forcasts are for freezing rain and rain on Friday through Saturday, Feb 14 and 15 for Raleigh, NC (up to a quarter of an inch). Considering the past couple of false calls, I am wondering if this might be the real things. I'm using a version of Murphy's Law here that says that winter weather occurs on the days when I really need to be out on the road (I have to take the cat to the vet school on Friday and I have my first Java programming class on Saturday morning).

Any thoughts on this?

[Stormsfury]

Right now the models aren't indicating any precip in North Carolina on Friday or Saturday ... however, since it is 7 days away ... things are going to change quite a bit with each run until we get a little closer and the models grasp onto the split flow (which they tend to have a hard time of doing anyway)

[Amanzi]

Hi Suncat

Yucky weather allways happens when we have important things to do, you are right Murphys Law normally comes out on top.

Take care if you do have to drive in bad conditions

[Suncat]

Thanks for the info, Stormfury. Looking at the current predictions for temps on those days, frozen precip seems to be a long shot. But as you say, this far out, things can change.

[Stormsfury]

You're welcome, Suncat ...

The 850mb thermal line is below 0c but the moisture field still way out to the west. If there's any significant threats, particularly in the Southeast region ... I'll post as soon as I can ...

[HeartofNC]

Suncat

I saw the same thing, since that last one, I'm not looking forward to anymore this year. See ya at Kroger!

[Stormsfury]

Some very interesting developments regarding Next weekend - Friday night thru Sunday -

Strong disturbances in the southern stream and the possibility of a strong high wedging down the East side of the Appalachians looks to produce a significant winter storm in the Mid - Atlantic Friday-Sunday.

HPC also highlights this risk as significant plus the possibility of the very cold arctic penetrating further southward than the models indicate ... CAD events aren't picked up very well by the models, however, seemingly the GFS is hinting at it from 7 days out ... if this verifies out, this will be a significant event maybe in the Carolinas as well ... stay tuned.

[ColdFront77]

Sure sounds interesting. Will be awaiting additional forecasts in the coming days.

[Stormsfury]

I took the map down (old map) at the time of issuance

[JQ Public]

:o :o :o :o :o Not again

[Stormsfury]

Hmmm.... Yes, JQ, possible it could happen once again ...

Another reason I like storm2k ... I can post images with no problem, unlike TWC ...

[JQ Public]

Looks like that picture changed a little. maybe we're outta the woods, but i know better than to say that. We just have to watch it closely until we have a better grasp ont hings I am so impatient hahah.

[Suncat]

Well, as of Sunday morning, TWC is calling for a rain event next weekend for the Southeast. It's still a bit less than a week away, so I'm taking this forcast with a bit of salt. Accuweather is still calling for a mix of rain and freezing rain. Both TWC and Accuweather are pushing the next event further back a a day or so, from Friday-Saturday to Sunday-Monday.

[Stormsfury]

Yep, that map had changed quite a bit ... I'll probably take it down ...

However, the placement of the high is crucial next weekend will be the absolute key to determining the rain/snow line ... I still believe this will be a significant overrunning event ...

One thing I saw this morning is that it has the high down in Virginia and not in Eastern Canada. I'm not buying that and the pattern would dictate otherwise with coordinations with other MR forecasters.

Last night's model runs (00z ETA and 00z GFS) both ran on time, but both runs had initialization problems and ETA had no data from Mexican observations at all ...

[wrkh99]

Not meaning to be rude but I don't understand why people waste there time watching TWC . They are a joke along with Accueweather in there forcast because they only use one model the MRF. The MRF does a very poor job out 72 hours . Now for the good stuff check out Joe B's video , WxRisk and Larry C email updates . Okay that was my rant of the day and I feel better

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

I never watch TWC unless there's the mets on there who are reliable...like Cantore, Keneely, Mancuso, and Schwartz. Even though their extended forcasts change more than anything, they still are just ok to 'see' what might be coming down the pike without scrounging sites and reading into models etc. TWC is closer on their temps more then anything and thats what I usually see.

[wrkh99]

I agree Mark Mancuso is really good. After all he is the program director. Dave Swartz has a great personality and makes weather fun for the late night viewers . Also some of those weekened late night ladies are hot

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

lol well I like Sharon Resultan...Jen Carfagno and Jill Brown...those 3 are about the best! Kristina Abernathy isnt too bad either!

[Stormsfury]

How true, Rob ...

I pay attention to Paul Kocin on his winter storm updates, and for some of the severe weather specialists. However, I rely on the NWS followed by my interpretations on the models, and a few selected very good mets and knowledgable enthusiasts training to be mets on a few of the bulletin boards - their input and posts helps out when looking at other areas besides the Southeast. I do not rely on Accuweather at all...

I don't rely on TV mets either, except when there is a severe weather situation going on ... our TV mets are quite good when covering events such as this. The fact of the matter is that MOST but not all TV METS only rely on a couple or maybe three models at the most.

[Suncat]

I agree that TWC and Accuweather have a lot to be desired. I don't take either of them seriously more than 24 hours out from an event

The National Weather Service Office at Raleigh is forecasting a temperature of 50F and cloudy for this coming Friday and 48F with rain for Saturday. That's today's forecast. By Wednesday things can change based on how the model runs look.