Ntxw wrote:La Nina -1.1C this week and it is only August. We are headed for the strongest Nina event since 2010. With the PDO sink last month long term drought will persist if not get worse.
The broad rainfall pattern indexes (PDO, ENSO, and SOI) hasn't changed all that much. We are sitting about where we were in April. And that told us back then the coming months would favor dry, same here.
Short and medium term we can still get bouts of rain from intraseasonal variability. The last half of August should be better than the first half. But this is basic climo saying it should.
Models seem to be looking good in the medium to long range only to slowly fade away as it gets closer. Really discouraging.
I know it's been hopes up and down. The 500mb weakness feature will provide daily rainfall chances, but we have to consider the background state so instead of 1-3" like they show long term reality is probably 0.5-1" just basing off persistence.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:59 pm
by Edwards Limestone
Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:La Nina -1.1C this week and it is only August. We are headed for the strongest Nina event since 2010. With the PDO sink last month long term drought will persist if not get worse.
The broad rainfall pattern indexes (PDO, ENSO, and SOI) hasn't changed all that much. We are sitting about where we were in April. And that told us back then the coming months would favor dry, same here.
Short and medium term we can still get bouts of rain from intraseasonal variability. The last half of August should be better than the first half. But this is basic climo saying it should.
Models seem to be looking good in the medium to long range only to slowly fade away as it gets closer. Really discouraging.
Yup. Until this pattern breaks I don't believe a thing the models are showing. Too much sinking/stable/dry air. So much so that it's basically killed a pretty decent looking tropical system anywhere north of I-10.
Extremely frustrating...example of the feast or famine nature of precip lately:
We actually do have a great chance at setting up a pretty situation for rainfall. Models depict a surging envelope of moisture regardless of development from the BOC heading n/nw. At the same time a front and ULL features moves in. At that point there's no ridge in place to block it. If these two things merge and the tropical plume is absorbed we'll see widespread rainfall. Timing is key.
CPC does highlight risk of heavy precipitation for the region around this time frame.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 15, 2022 3:31 pm
by Brent
My warmest high after tomorrow through August 29th is only 93...
I'll take that any year and yeah a big reason it doesn't get that hot again is because next week is unsettled. We're eating away at the hottest climo now
Oh boy. I am glad I brought my rain poncho here to Starkvegas. Looks like I'm going to need it starting Wednesday (first day of class). Glad much of the rest of the state should be joining in on the fun.
Edit: By the state, I mean Texas. I am not used to living in Mississippi yet. Haha!
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 15, 2022 5:16 pm
by bubba hotep
Ntxw wrote:So a positive post.
We actually do have a great chance at setting up a pretty situation for rainfall. Models depict a surging envelope of moisture regardless of development from the BOC heading n/nw. At the same time a front and ULL features moves in. At that point there's no ridge in place to block it. If these two things merge and the tropical plume is absorbed we'll see widespread rainfall. Timing is key.
CPC does highlight risk of heavy precipitation for the region around this time frame.
This looks like a legit set up and the potential is there for widespread rain across Texas.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:06 pm
by Iceresistance
Reached 100°F today, my grandmother had to call the ambulance because one of the guys who was replacing the water heater got dehydrated to the point where he had cramps all over him, he's doing much better now, but that was a little scary.
Expected to be 103°F tomorrow before the storms come.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:58 pm
by rwfromkansas
I still won’t get excited until Saturday or Sunday. But, hopeful…
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:19 pm
by cycloneye
Follow what is going on with the area NHC is watching that may have weather implications for portions of Texas on the thread at talking tropics forum.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 15, 2022 10:01 pm
by bubba hotep
cycloneye wrote:Follow what is going on with the area NHC is watching that may have weather implications for portions of Texas on the thread at talking tropics forum.
Looks like there will be too much land interaction to allow for anything to really get going. Also, the BOC seems to favor systems moving W or WSW for rapid spin up.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:00 am
by Iceresistance
I wasn't expecting this from the WPC, let alone a 7-Day QPF forecast, with the majority of the rain on Days 6 and 7.
1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave currently located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central America during the next few days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:51 am
by bubba hotep
Multiple stations reporting 5"+ down in Terrell County, TX.
The Euro keeps moving the heaviest rain in NTX north at 0Z and 12Z moves it back south over DFW. Weird. Of course, now that I said that, it won't do it again. I don't like the hole below Tarrant. That could easily go north. But, I think overall the pattern will bring much-needed rain even if it ends up being an inch instead of 2-3.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2022 1:31 pm
by Brent
We may struggle to hit 80 tomorrow... Summer is definitely wrapping up
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2022 1:39 pm
by Iceresistance
WPC has updated, my goodness. 3-4 inches of rain in 2 days!
and yeah a big reason it doesn't get that hot again is because next week is unsettled. We're eating away at the hottest climo now
