STORM2K

It seems here in SW Louisiana we are starting out with cool and wet for the entire week. Mets are talking 2.5-3" of precip. tomorrow alone on top of already saturated ground.

Canadian doing what it does best while gfs is slowly decreasing the amounts of rain for us as each model run has been coming out since this morning.

Newest 12z gfs continues the trend of lowering totals. Actually pretty drastically cut totals from just 12hrs ago. We might only end up with one or two inches by weeks end if the trend continues. Far cry from the 7-8+

Anyone notice the "bomb" coming our way from the gulf? Looks like a low pressure is strengthening and should give us a storm evening/night. If this were the summer months we'd definitely be looking at this for tropical development...very impressive!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-animated.gif

Yep, if this were August I'd be concerned......MGC

Anyone notice the "bomb" coming our way from the gulf? Looks like a low pressure is strengthening and should give us a storm evening/night. If this were the summer months we'd definitely be looking at this for tropical development...very impressive!

PT,
Great minds must think alike. Just downloaded and was coming on here to post this exact image. Everybody take a good look because it will probably be the best looking system we have in the gulf this hurricane season.

And NWS has with only a 60% chance of rain today and tonight. So unless this thing falls apart or stalls think we will be getting a much better chance than shown.

I am soooooooooooooooooo over all this rain. When I saw that graphic all I could think of was seeing that in August would scare the tar out of me.

Its really not as bad as it could have been compared to what models were showing last weekend. But yes it does suck as its just enough to keep everything wet and prevent things from drying.

Training rains coming in from the gulf. Looks like moderate to some heavy rains all day for Acadiana.

It's been hilarious in Baton Rouge... Lafayette is getting slammed and so is Nola. It's dry as hell here.

Where is this El Nino pattern we are supposed to be in? I thought we were supposed to be in a wet spring pattern and have nothing much to show for it. No measurable rain in quite some time and nothing showing up in the next week. Lawns are already starting to slow down when this is the prime time growing period. Going to be a long summer if things don't turn around in the next month or two.

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Where is this El Nino pattern we are supposed to be in? I thought we were supposed to be in a wet spring pattern and have nothing much to show for it. No measurable rain in quite some time and nothing showing up in the next week. Lawns are already starting to slow down when this is the prime time growing period. Going to be a long summer if things don't turn around in the next month or two.

What's interesting is it seems this is the time every year that I say "we start to miss all of the rain." Seems like all the action is always north of us and we remain capped most of the time through late spring. There seems to be exceptions now and then with a few big rainfalls but I feel like this is the case every year. Our 40% chance of rain tomorrow I fully expect to be nothing more than a ground-wetter . This isn't an especially wet time of year for us as March and April are some of the drier months of the year. Looks like we could have a chance at some big rainfall in about 5-7 days so we'll see.

I just got in from Vegas this afternoon. Man o' man, I will take their humidity level (@ 8%) over the 80% here. I walked out of the grocery store this evening and that humidity hit me like a brick wall!

An incredibly wet 7-10 days is in store for our area. Both GFS and Euro are in agreement on copious amounts of rain starting Friday through all of next week. I haven't quite seen model runs like this in a very long time. Euro total precip forecast has several hotspots of over 10" in southern LA over the next 10 days. I would expect a widespread flooding situation to unfold over the next several days if things remain the same.

Already over 4" at my place since Friday. Latest HPC QPF has an additional 5"-10" progged for my area through the next 7 days .

And over here south of baton rouge we might have had half an inch at best since then

These forecasts have been nothing but bust after bust when it comes to precip totals lately. If they are calling for 5-7 inches in my area, then we might get an inch total. Maybe this one will come to fruition, it does seem to have more model support but the other systems did as well and they just never panned out. It has been a really odd year for that. I don't recall so many busts on precip totals as we have had so far this year.

Definitely not a bust so far in Lafayette. I've had over 5" at my house now and 4.24" officially at the airport since Friday. GFS, Euro and the HPC all agree on 5"-10" of additional rainfall this week and yet the weather service just cancelled our flash flood watch after this latest line of storms just moved through? Really doesn't make any sense to me considering the Vermilion river just went above Flood stage and another round of heavy rainfall likely tonight and especially tomorrow. I've seen MANY busts when it comes to heavy rainfall events but this one is panning out. Safe to say there won't be a drought this spring!

Major storm and damages occurred in the Lake Charles area Sunday night into Monday morning. Clean-up continues for many. I am so thankful that I had no damage personally. DH and I just got back from cleaning up the debris from several large old oak trees at my father in laws. Lots of trees completely uprooted due to extremely high winds over saturated soils. Power has been restored to most but you can still see utility trucks all over the city working diligently before the next round of storms. The snakes are horrible right now with all of the water.

With all of the potential for severe weather firing up tomorrow through Saturday I found it odd that this is in our NWS Discussion "THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED". It almost sounds as though most of this storm has it's aim on Texas as well as northern and central Louisiana, not the southern part of the sate.