SPC has Slight Risk areas posted for the next three days. Fairly small areas for today, but much larger for the next two days. Also rainfall may be in the 3" range in some places.
Upgraded to Moderate Risk for 4/3 and added a large Slight Risk for Friday 4/4.
Severe Weather Potential, 4/1, 4/2, 4/3 (Moderate), 4/4
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Severe Weather Potential, 4/1, 4/2, 4/3 (Moderate), 4/4
Last edited by WeatherGuesser on Wed Apr 02, 2014 3:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
TexasStorm
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 174
- Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:00 am
- Location: North Texas
Re: Severe Weather Potential, 4/1, 4/2, 4/3
SPC is talking about in their Wednesday outlook about upgrading the slight risk to a moderate for some areas.
0 likes
-
apocalypt-flyer
- Category 1
- Posts: 468
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:51 am
Re: Severe Weather Potential, 4/1, 4/2, 4/3
Yeah, both tomorrow and Thursday look more hazardous in terms of setups. Particularly the latter. Wouldn't be entirely shocked to see upgrades for both tomorrow and Thursday come out early tomorrow.
0 likes
-
TwisterFanatic
- Category 5
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
- Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma
Weather guys here are expecting a moderate risk for both Tomorrow and Thursday. Going to be very unstable both days.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOW-MID MS
VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OH
VALLEY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY WITH DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS.
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON TIMING...AMPLITUDE AND GENERAL
CHARACTER OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT NEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BENEATH CORRIDOR OF
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE. BY THURSDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE SFC LOW SITUATED OVER SERN KS SWWD THROUGH
NWRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD OVERTAKING THE
DRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS OK AND TX. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AREA SWWD THROUGH WRN TN...LA AND THE TX COASTAL AREA. WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY.
...ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT EJECTS ENEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATER THURSDAY. RICHER GULF
MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED INTO MUCH OF
ERN TX AND LA AND WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY. A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR MOST OF WARM
SECTOR WILL SUFFER FROM EARLY CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING EXCEPT FARTHER
NORTH WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM NRN MO INTO THE
OH VALLEY. A FEW BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECK SHOULD RESULT
IN AT LEAST MODEST WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME PROBABLE ACROSS
THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CAP
WEAKENS WHERE STRENGTHENING LLJ WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS MAY
INITIALLY BE DISCRETE IN CHARACTER...AND VERTICAL SHEAR AND
LOW-LEVEL HODORAPHS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE FARTHER FROM ERN KS/WRN MO...ERN OK AND
POSSIBLY INTO ERN TX AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...AND
SOME STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.
...OH VALLEY REGION...
MOSTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT
EAST DURING THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND NEWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN
THIS REGION SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..DIAL.. 04/02/2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOW-MID MS
VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OH
VALLEY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY WITH DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS.
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON TIMING...AMPLITUDE AND GENERAL
CHARACTER OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT NEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BENEATH CORRIDOR OF
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE. BY THURSDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE SFC LOW SITUATED OVER SERN KS SWWD THROUGH
NWRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD OVERTAKING THE
DRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS OK AND TX. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AREA SWWD THROUGH WRN TN...LA AND THE TX COASTAL AREA. WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY.
...ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT EJECTS ENEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATER THURSDAY. RICHER GULF
MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED INTO MUCH OF
ERN TX AND LA AND WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY. A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR MOST OF WARM
SECTOR WILL SUFFER FROM EARLY CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING EXCEPT FARTHER
NORTH WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM NRN MO INTO THE
OH VALLEY. A FEW BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECK SHOULD RESULT
IN AT LEAST MODEST WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME PROBABLE ACROSS
THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CAP
WEAKENS WHERE STRENGTHENING LLJ WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS MAY
INITIALLY BE DISCRETE IN CHARACTER...AND VERTICAL SHEAR AND
LOW-LEVEL HODORAPHS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE FARTHER FROM ERN KS/WRN MO...ERN OK AND
POSSIBLY INTO ERN TX AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...AND
SOME STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.
...OH VALLEY REGION...
MOSTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT
EAST DURING THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND NEWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN
THIS REGION SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..DIAL.. 04/02/2014
0 likes
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
-
TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Thread will need to be extended. We'll get a break on Saturday as the current shortwave exits, but a new one will eject eastward into the southern Plains by Sunday afternoon, sparking what could be a very interesting day across the Gulf States.
Last edited by TropicalAnalystwx13 on Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 49
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 935 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HOT
SPRINGS ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR. THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR
MASS. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 49
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 935 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HOT
SPRINGS ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR. THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR
MASS. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
0 likes
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Severe Weather Potential, 4/1, 4/2, 4/3 (Moderate), 4/4
Today is the 40th anniversary of the 1974 tornado outbreak and this is only the fourth time since then that we have had a threat of severe weather on April 3.
http://www.wlky.com/weather/severe-weat ... e/25300982
0 likes
-
Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5677
- Age: 58
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
UPDATE: Dr. Greg Forbes has just raised his TOR:CON index today. 80% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of the locations listed in the graphic. More TOR:CON forecasts: http://wxch.nl/1dQrv9u
0 likes
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...WRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 49...
VALID 031705Z - 031800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 49 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS PERSISTS
ACROSS SWRN MO AND WRN AR. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE PREDICATED ON
SFC-BASED DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AND IS LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER ERN OK AND WRN
AR CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS SWRN MO...SHOWING INTERMITTENT
SIGNS OF BEING LOOSELY ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FARTHER N IN SWRN MO. THESE
STORMS INITIALLY APPEARED TO BE ELEVATED...BUT HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INCREASING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND ORGANIZATION MORE RECENTLY. A
TORNADO THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE
BOUNDARY.
THE 15Z SGF SOUNDING INDICATED WEAK CAPPING WAS STILL PRESENT...AND
HEATING ACROSS THE REGION IS BEING AFFECTED BY ANVIL-LEVEL CIRRUS
FROM CONVECTION OVER SERN OK AND NE TX. HOWEVER...CINH FOR SFC-BASED
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON VIA DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...AND ANY
ADDITIONAL HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES /0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 300 J/KG PER SRX
VWP/...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS.
LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTM WILL OCCUR ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE...AND MAY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 49 LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A RENEWED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
..ROGERS/HART.. 04/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 37269125 35829162 34389222 33999335 34229435 36039454
37369438 37929396 38159291 37859187 37269125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...WRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 49...
VALID 031705Z - 031800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 49 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS PERSISTS
ACROSS SWRN MO AND WRN AR. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE PREDICATED ON
SFC-BASED DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AND IS LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER ERN OK AND WRN
AR CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS SWRN MO...SHOWING INTERMITTENT
SIGNS OF BEING LOOSELY ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FARTHER N IN SWRN MO. THESE
STORMS INITIALLY APPEARED TO BE ELEVATED...BUT HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INCREASING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND ORGANIZATION MORE RECENTLY. A
TORNADO THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE
BOUNDARY.
THE 15Z SGF SOUNDING INDICATED WEAK CAPPING WAS STILL PRESENT...AND
HEATING ACROSS THE REGION IS BEING AFFECTED BY ANVIL-LEVEL CIRRUS
FROM CONVECTION OVER SERN OK AND NE TX. HOWEVER...CINH FOR SFC-BASED
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON VIA DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...AND ANY
ADDITIONAL HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES /0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 300 J/KG PER SRX
VWP/...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS.
LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTM WILL OCCUR ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE...AND MAY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 49 LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A RENEWED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
..ROGERS/HART.. 04/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 37269125 35829162 34389222 33999335 34229435 36039454
37369438 37929396 38159291 37859187 37269125
0 likes
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO....SRN IL...FAR WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 031728Z - 031830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF TSTMS
APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL MO. A WW IS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
DISCUSSION...MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SERN MO AND
FAR SRN IL ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN EML PLUME...AS SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOW 70S F AND ARE YIELDING MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS S-CNTRL
MO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A W-E ORIENTED
WARM FRONT ACROSS W-CNTRL MO AND SRN IL...BUT A COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT TSTM INTENSITY INVOF THE
FRONT FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY INTO SERN MO AND FAR SRN IL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
DEVELOP.
..ROGERS/HART.. 04/03/2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO....SRN IL...FAR WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 031728Z - 031830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF TSTMS
APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL MO. A WW IS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
DISCUSSION...MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SERN MO AND
FAR SRN IL ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN EML PLUME...AS SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOW 70S F AND ARE YIELDING MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS S-CNTRL
MO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A W-E ORIENTED
WARM FRONT ACROSS W-CNTRL MO AND SRN IL...BUT A COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT TSTM INTENSITY INVOF THE
FRONT FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY INTO SERN MO AND FAR SRN IL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
DEVELOP.
..ROGERS/HART.. 04/03/2014
0 likes
MDs rolling in, now.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK...FAR NW AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 031733Z - 031900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS SE KS INTO NE
OK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED CU FIELD JUST
AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS SE KS SWD INTO NE OK. 17Z
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE IF ANY CAP REMAINED ACROSS THIS
REGION. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MODIFIED 17Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS /AT LEAST INITIALLY/. AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL WAVE
IMPINGES ON THE REGION...STORMS MAY TEND TOWARD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR QLCS STRUCTURES. EITHER WAY...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
ADDITIONALLY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8 DEG C PER KM
AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL
DEVELOPMENT.
PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 0049 WOULD LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THREAT AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO SW MO/NW AR.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36379615 36949586 37689560 38149538 38409491 38489449
38519434 38519375 38389318 37939291 37319275 36669292
36569297 35569367 35219416 35029511 35119608 35299649
35509661 35909648 36379615
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK...FAR NW AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 031733Z - 031900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS SE KS INTO NE
OK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED CU FIELD JUST
AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS SE KS SWD INTO NE OK. 17Z
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE IF ANY CAP REMAINED ACROSS THIS
REGION. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MODIFIED 17Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS /AT LEAST INITIALLY/. AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL WAVE
IMPINGES ON THE REGION...STORMS MAY TEND TOWARD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR QLCS STRUCTURES. EITHER WAY...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
ADDITIONALLY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8 DEG C PER KM
AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL
DEVELOPMENT.
PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 0049 WOULD LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THREAT AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO SW MO/NW AR.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36379615 36949586 37689560 38149538 38409491 38489449
38519434 38519375 38389318 37939291 37319275 36669292
36569297 35569367 35219416 35029511 35119608 35299649
35509661 35909648 36379615
0 likes
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 50
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM
UNTIL 700 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FARMINGTON MISSOURI TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 49...
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HART
===========================================================================================================
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (30%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (70%)
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 50
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM
UNTIL 700 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FARMINGTON MISSOURI TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 49...
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HART
===========================================================================================================
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (30%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (70%)
Last edited by Bunkertor on Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Severe Weather Potential, 4/1, 4/2, 4/3 (Moderate), 4/4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 50
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM
UNTIL 700 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FARMINGTON MISSOURI TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 49...
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HART
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 50
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM
UNTIL 700 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FARMINGTON MISSOURI TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 49...
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HART
0 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 55 guests