No risk area yet from the Storm Prediction Center...I personally would expect to see one in the morning given that the GFS and ECMWF have fallen much better in line regarding Saturday across eastern Texas.
Plenty of instability (up to 2000j/kg per GFS), plenty of shear (though out of S from 1000-850mb and then SSW at 500mb might not be the perfect amount of turning), plenty of moisture, plenty of forcing, etc.
Looks like the annual end-of-year outbreak.
Tornado outbreak 12-21?
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TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
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Re: Tornado outbreak 12-21?
I live in Texas now but am back home in Bama for Cmas and one of our local mets here in Central Alabama talked about this a little on his blog. Coincidentally the 16th marks the 13th anniversary of the F4 tornado that hit south Tuscaloosa, less than a mile from my house. Dec can be a dicey month in the South.
This is from James Spann's blog:
STORMY WEEKEND: A warm front extending eastward from the Texas low is expected to move through Alabama Friday night and Saturday morning… this should bring a good round of rain, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to the state as the weekend begins. The 12Z GFS pushes the warm front north of here Saturday afternoon, and there could be a break in the rain at that time with a little sun breaking through. The high Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s; the record high for December 21 is 73 set in 1923, and that record could be in danger.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT? The surface low moves from near Waco, Texas Friday to Little Rock, Arkansas Saturday evening, and on to near Buffalo, New York Sunday. With Alabama being in the warm sector of the storm, and with good support from an upper trough to the west, that will open the door for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms across Alabama late Saturday night or Sunday.
The low level jet (around 5,000 feet off the ground) is expected to exceed 65 knots, low level bulk shear is very high (over 40 knots from the surface to 925 mb), and surface dew points are expected to reach the 60s. This clearly suggests some risk of severe weather.
Using a blend of model output, seems like the main 12 hour severe weather threat over the weekend will come from midnight Saturday night through 12:00 noon Sunday. Hopefully, if the storms come through during the early morning hours when the air tends to be more stable, that will mitigate the severe weather threat to some degree, but we simply don’t know at this point.
It is too early to determine the magnitude of the severe weather threat, or to identify the specific modes of severe weather we will deal with. We will have a good idea by Wednesday morning. Stay tuned.
This is from James Spann's blog:
STORMY WEEKEND: A warm front extending eastward from the Texas low is expected to move through Alabama Friday night and Saturday morning… this should bring a good round of rain, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to the state as the weekend begins. The 12Z GFS pushes the warm front north of here Saturday afternoon, and there could be a break in the rain at that time with a little sun breaking through. The high Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s; the record high for December 21 is 73 set in 1923, and that record could be in danger.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT? The surface low moves from near Waco, Texas Friday to Little Rock, Arkansas Saturday evening, and on to near Buffalo, New York Sunday. With Alabama being in the warm sector of the storm, and with good support from an upper trough to the west, that will open the door for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms across Alabama late Saturday night or Sunday.
The low level jet (around 5,000 feet off the ground) is expected to exceed 65 knots, low level bulk shear is very high (over 40 knots from the surface to 925 mb), and surface dew points are expected to reach the 60s. This clearly suggests some risk of severe weather.
Using a blend of model output, seems like the main 12 hour severe weather threat over the weekend will come from midnight Saturday night through 12:00 noon Sunday. Hopefully, if the storms come through during the early morning hours when the air tends to be more stable, that will mitigate the severe weather threat to some degree, but we simply don’t know at this point.
It is too early to determine the magnitude of the severe weather threat, or to identify the specific modes of severe weather we will deal with. We will have a good idea by Wednesday morning. Stay tuned.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139784
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tornado outbreak 12-21?
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST WED DEC 18 2013
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...TX...ARKLATEX...LOWER MS/LOWER OH VALLEY ON SAT/D4...
THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THE LOCATION OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON SAT/D4 AS THE SWRN UPPER LOW/TROUGH EJECTS
RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/WAVE ALONG THE
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. S OF THIS FRONT...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND N OF A STATIONARY
FRONT EARLY ON SAT/D4...FROM WRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO SERN MO...WHERE STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL EXIST
COURTESY OF A 60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. RAPID COOLING ALOFT...A
VEER/BACK SIGNAL IN THE WIND PROFILE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...A
RATHER MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS A SEMI-CAPPED WARM
SECTOR SUGGEST THAT A STRONGLY FORCED QLCS WILL BE LIKELY...CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT...OR THE NRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
...SUN/D5 AND BEYOND...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOSS OF AMPLITUDE
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WITH
ONGOING STORMS SHOULD TRAIL APPROXIMATELY FROM IND/OH SWWD ACROSS
TN/AL/MS WITH SOME ONGOING THREAT. GIVEN TIMING ISSUES AS WELL AS
THE LOSS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE N...WILL DEFER ANY SEVERE
AREAS TO LATER OUTLOOKS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE ACROSS
ERN MS/AL/GA AND TN IN PROXIMITY TO THE MOST ROBUST MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH LINEAR STORM MODE MOST LIKELY.
..JEWELL.. 12/18/2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST WED DEC 18 2013
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...TX...ARKLATEX...LOWER MS/LOWER OH VALLEY ON SAT/D4...
THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THE LOCATION OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON SAT/D4 AS THE SWRN UPPER LOW/TROUGH EJECTS
RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/WAVE ALONG THE
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. S OF THIS FRONT...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND N OF A STATIONARY
FRONT EARLY ON SAT/D4...FROM WRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO SERN MO...WHERE STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL EXIST
COURTESY OF A 60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. RAPID COOLING ALOFT...A
VEER/BACK SIGNAL IN THE WIND PROFILE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...A
RATHER MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS A SEMI-CAPPED WARM
SECTOR SUGGEST THAT A STRONGLY FORCED QLCS WILL BE LIKELY...CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT...OR THE NRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
...SUN/D5 AND BEYOND...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOSS OF AMPLITUDE
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WITH
ONGOING STORMS SHOULD TRAIL APPROXIMATELY FROM IND/OH SWWD ACROSS
TN/AL/MS WITH SOME ONGOING THREAT. GIVEN TIMING ISSUES AS WELL AS
THE LOSS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE N...WILL DEFER ANY SEVERE
AREAS TO LATER OUTLOOKS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE ACROSS
ERN MS/AL/GA AND TN IN PROXIMITY TO THE MOST ROBUST MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH LINEAR STORM MODE MOST LIKELY.
..JEWELL.. 12/18/2013
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST
NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NEWD OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WHILE ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE-TILT BEFORE APPROACHING THE MID-MS
VALLEY. A SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
OCCUR...WITH A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SFC...A STALLED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE ARKLATEX AND ALONG THE OH
VALLEY...WITH A MOIST GULF AIR MASS SPREADING INLAND S OF THE FRONT.
A LOW WILL DEVELOP OUT OF CNTRL TX AND TRACK NEWD NEAR THE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD.
...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW RICH GULF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO ADVECT NWD
ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREAS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S F LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS FROM
CENTRAL TX NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...RESULTING IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT PRIOR TO THE START OF THE D2 PERIOD
AND PERSIST INTO THE DAYTIME ON SAT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OUT OF
CNTRL TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS
AR/LOWER OH VALLEY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS E TX AND LA/AR...BEFORE REACHING
THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY FOSTER AN
EWD SHIFT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH TIME.
THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH NEWD PROGRESSION. STRONGEST MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SRN OZARKS AND POINTS NEWD...MAINLY ALONG/N OF THE STALLED FRONT
AND SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...LATEST SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT DEPICTING THE EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
LA AND SRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING E OF THE MS VALLEY DURING THE
EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL INTENSIFY GREATLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE D2 PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED WIND PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS/TORNADOES. THE
MAGNITUDE OF EACH INDIVIDUAL THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLUTION. TSTMS MAY TREND TOWARDS LINEAR INVOF BOTH
THE STALLED FRONT AND COLD FRONT. A MIX OF QUASI-LINEAR AND CLUSTER
MODES MAY EXIST FARTHER S WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...WHERE BOTH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER...BUT MERIDIONAL WIND
PROFILES WILL PROMOTE STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY ANY DISCRETE OR CLUSTER TSTMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES/LIMITATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE THE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL BUOYANCY/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR
/PARTIALLY OWING TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING/...AND CONVECTIVE MODE
EVOLUTION. BUOYANCY DECREASES MARKEDLY FARTHER N INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...BUT STRONG WIND PROFILES MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DMGG
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVERNIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW TRACKING NEWD. FARTHER S...PRIMARY SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME WELL SEPARATED FROM THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST IN SOME FORM /BROKEN LINE AND/OR CLUSTERS/
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC-BASED PARCELS.
..ROGERS.. 12/20/2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST
NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NEWD OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WHILE ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE-TILT BEFORE APPROACHING THE MID-MS
VALLEY. A SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
OCCUR...WITH A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SFC...A STALLED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE ARKLATEX AND ALONG THE OH
VALLEY...WITH A MOIST GULF AIR MASS SPREADING INLAND S OF THE FRONT.
A LOW WILL DEVELOP OUT OF CNTRL TX AND TRACK NEWD NEAR THE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD.
...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW RICH GULF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO ADVECT NWD
ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREAS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S F LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS FROM
CENTRAL TX NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...RESULTING IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT PRIOR TO THE START OF THE D2 PERIOD
AND PERSIST INTO THE DAYTIME ON SAT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OUT OF
CNTRL TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS
AR/LOWER OH VALLEY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS E TX AND LA/AR...BEFORE REACHING
THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY FOSTER AN
EWD SHIFT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH TIME.
THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH NEWD PROGRESSION. STRONGEST MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SRN OZARKS AND POINTS NEWD...MAINLY ALONG/N OF THE STALLED FRONT
AND SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...LATEST SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT DEPICTING THE EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
LA AND SRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING E OF THE MS VALLEY DURING THE
EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL INTENSIFY GREATLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE D2 PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED WIND PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS/TORNADOES. THE
MAGNITUDE OF EACH INDIVIDUAL THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLUTION. TSTMS MAY TREND TOWARDS LINEAR INVOF BOTH
THE STALLED FRONT AND COLD FRONT. A MIX OF QUASI-LINEAR AND CLUSTER
MODES MAY EXIST FARTHER S WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...WHERE BOTH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER...BUT MERIDIONAL WIND
PROFILES WILL PROMOTE STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY ANY DISCRETE OR CLUSTER TSTMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES/LIMITATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE THE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL BUOYANCY/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR
/PARTIALLY OWING TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING/...AND CONVECTIVE MODE
EVOLUTION. BUOYANCY DECREASES MARKEDLY FARTHER N INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...BUT STRONG WIND PROFILES MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DMGG
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVERNIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW TRACKING NEWD. FARTHER S...PRIMARY SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME WELL SEPARATED FROM THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST IN SOME FORM /BROKEN LINE AND/OR CLUSTERS/
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC-BASED PARCELS.
..ROGERS.. 12/20/2013
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139784
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tornado outbreak 12-21?
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ALL OF
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM EAST TX THE UPPER TX GULF COAST NORTHEAST TO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO VERY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE
PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. A POTENT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA...WAS PIVOTING
THROUGH THE BASE OF A POSITIVE-TILT LARGER SCALE TROUGH ORIENTED SW
TO NE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
TOWARD DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE ACCELERATES NEWD FROM WEST TX TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...500MB FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 100KT ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX...WHILE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO 60-70KT FROM
EAST TX TO THE OH VALLEY.
AT THE SFC...A SHARP QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING
DEFINED FROM CNTRL/NERN TX TO THE OH VALLEY. AS MID/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY LIFT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW AIRMASS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. IN FACT...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. AS
AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS INTENSIFY...THE PROSPECT FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND OVER THE LA/MS DELTA REGION.
...AKLATEX ACROSS LA/MS...
WHILE SBCAPE WILL BE LIMITED TO AOB 500 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW AND NAM4/ SHOW REMARKABLE
CONSISTENCY AND DEPICT THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONGLY FORCED
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL-LINE NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER BY LATE MORNING. WITH
CLOUD-BEARING MEAN WINDS AND BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS AROUND 60KT...AS
WELL AS ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500
M2/S2...SEVERE WINDS AND TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH LEWP/BOW
STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER QLCS. MESOSCALE LOWS/WAVES
RIPPLING ALONG THE LINE MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY ENHANCED STRONG TORNADO
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LA.
THE BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS NRN LA
AND THE MS RIVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TRAILING PORTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MAKE SLOWER PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN LA AND MAY
NOT ARRIVE ACROSS THE LA/MS DELTA REGION UNTIL AFTER DARK SATURDAY
EVENING. NONETHELESS...EXPECT SEVERE WIND/TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST
AFTER DARK OVER THESE AREAS.
....AR/TN TO OH VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT
MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR FRONTAL WAVES FORECAST
TO FORM AND RIPPLE ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BOUTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SPREADING NEWD FROM AR TO
SRN IL/IND AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SWRN OH INTO THE EVENING.
STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND RELATIVELY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILE...ALONG WITH ORGANIZING INFLUENCE FROM FRONTAL
WAVES/LOWS...SHOULD SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR COINCIDENT
WITH ANY PERSISTENT FRONTAL WAVE.
..CARBIN.. 12/20/2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ALL OF
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM EAST TX THE UPPER TX GULF COAST NORTHEAST TO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO VERY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE
PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. A POTENT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA...WAS PIVOTING
THROUGH THE BASE OF A POSITIVE-TILT LARGER SCALE TROUGH ORIENTED SW
TO NE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
TOWARD DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE ACCELERATES NEWD FROM WEST TX TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...500MB FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 100KT ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX...WHILE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO 60-70KT FROM
EAST TX TO THE OH VALLEY.
AT THE SFC...A SHARP QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING
DEFINED FROM CNTRL/NERN TX TO THE OH VALLEY. AS MID/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY LIFT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW AIRMASS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. IN FACT...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. AS
AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS INTENSIFY...THE PROSPECT FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND OVER THE LA/MS DELTA REGION.
...AKLATEX ACROSS LA/MS...
WHILE SBCAPE WILL BE LIMITED TO AOB 500 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW AND NAM4/ SHOW REMARKABLE
CONSISTENCY AND DEPICT THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONGLY FORCED
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL-LINE NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER BY LATE MORNING. WITH
CLOUD-BEARING MEAN WINDS AND BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS AROUND 60KT...AS
WELL AS ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500
M2/S2...SEVERE WINDS AND TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH LEWP/BOW
STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER QLCS. MESOSCALE LOWS/WAVES
RIPPLING ALONG THE LINE MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY ENHANCED STRONG TORNADO
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LA.
THE BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS NRN LA
AND THE MS RIVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TRAILING PORTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MAKE SLOWER PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN LA AND MAY
NOT ARRIVE ACROSS THE LA/MS DELTA REGION UNTIL AFTER DARK SATURDAY
EVENING. NONETHELESS...EXPECT SEVERE WIND/TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST
AFTER DARK OVER THESE AREAS.
....AR/TN TO OH VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT
MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR FRONTAL WAVES FORECAST
TO FORM AND RIPPLE ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BOUTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SPREADING NEWD FROM AR TO
SRN IL/IND AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SWRN OH INTO THE EVENING.
STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND RELATIVELY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILE...ALONG WITH ORGANIZING INFLUENCE FROM FRONTAL
WAVES/LOWS...SHOULD SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR COINCIDENT
WITH ANY PERSISTENT FRONTAL WAVE.
..CARBIN.. 12/20/2013
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TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
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TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
NWS Jackson, MS:
BY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 62F, IF
NOT HIGHER, DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS
1.4-1.6 INCHES (+2 SD). THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL OPEN AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONCURRENT WITH
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE AND ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. GRADIENT SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE 25-35
MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT
HANDLE THIS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON... NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS APPEAR QUITE SUBSTANTIAL THAT COULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE HAZARDS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE MS RIVER. ML
CAPE WILL LIKELY BE 500-1000 J/KG DURING THE EARLY AFTN IN PRESENCE
OF A 60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LVL SUB-TROPICAL JET WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. AS QG
ASCENT BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER LA/AR WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
300M2/S2+...AN INITIAL MODE OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS COULD DEVELOP.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...SOME
POSSIBLY STRONG. GIVEN STRONG MERIDIONAL LOW-LVL FLOW...STORMS WILL
TEND TO MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A BROKEN QLCS AS THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST. LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MESO VORTICIES
ALONG/IN THE QLCS...THE 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTOR NORMAL MAGNITUDES YIELD
25-30 KT TO THE FORCING AXIS. WHILE A MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NE WITHIN THE LINE...ANY BOWING SEGMENT WITH A
GREATER EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING AN
EMBEDDED TORNADO GIVEN THE 25-30 KT 0-3 KM SHEAR. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE SREF, THIS RISK APPEARS PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA AS THE LINE MOVES EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERAL ANALOGS
TO THIS SYSTEM PER CIPS OUTPUT ALSO INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED
HAZARDS SEEM QUITE PLAUSIBLE.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 62F, IF
NOT HIGHER, DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS
1.4-1.6 INCHES (+2 SD). THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL OPEN AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONCURRENT WITH
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE AND ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. GRADIENT SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE 25-35
MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT
HANDLE THIS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON... NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS APPEAR QUITE SUBSTANTIAL THAT COULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE HAZARDS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE MS RIVER. ML
CAPE WILL LIKELY BE 500-1000 J/KG DURING THE EARLY AFTN IN PRESENCE
OF A 60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LVL SUB-TROPICAL JET WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. AS QG
ASCENT BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER LA/AR WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
300M2/S2+...AN INITIAL MODE OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS COULD DEVELOP.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...SOME
POSSIBLY STRONG. GIVEN STRONG MERIDIONAL LOW-LVL FLOW...STORMS WILL
TEND TO MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A BROKEN QLCS AS THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST. LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MESO VORTICIES
ALONG/IN THE QLCS...THE 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTOR NORMAL MAGNITUDES YIELD
25-30 KT TO THE FORCING AXIS. WHILE A MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NE WITHIN THE LINE...ANY BOWING SEGMENT WITH A
GREATER EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING AN
EMBEDDED TORNADO GIVEN THE 25-30 KT 0-3 KM SHEAR. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE SREF, THIS RISK APPEARS PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA AS THE LINE MOVES EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERAL ANALOGS
TO THIS SYSTEM PER CIPS OUTPUT ALSO INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED
HAZARDS SEEM QUITE PLAUSIBLE.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139784
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tornado outbreak 12-21?
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
441 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
WEST CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 530 PM CST
* AT 438 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED NEAR REGANTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
NEWMAN AROUND 505 PM CST.
LEARNED AROUND 520 PM CST.
EDWARDS AROUND 530 PM CST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
441 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
WEST CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 530 PM CST
* AT 438 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED NEAR REGANTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
NEWMAN AROUND 505 PM CST.
LEARNED AROUND 520 PM CST.
EDWARDS AROUND 530 PM CST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139784
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tornado outbreak 12-21?
TORNADO WARNING
MSC049-210015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0073.131220T2324Z-131221T0015Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
524 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HINDS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 615 PM CST
* AT 522 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED NEAR EDWARDS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BOLTON AROUND 540 PM CST.
BROWNSVILLE AROUND 555 PM CST.
POCAHONTAS AROUND 615 PM CST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
&&
LAT...LON 3217 9061 3237 9064 3249 9044 3249 9025
3240 9025 3232 9027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 228DEG 20KT 3231 9056
$$
GRG
MSC049-210015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0073.131220T2324Z-131221T0015Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
524 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HINDS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 615 PM CST
* AT 522 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED NEAR EDWARDS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BOLTON AROUND 540 PM CST.
BROWNSVILLE AROUND 555 PM CST.
POCAHONTAS AROUND 615 PM CST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
&&
LAT...LON 3217 9061 3237 9064 3249 9044 3249 9025
3240 9025 3232 9027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 228DEG 20KT 3231 9056
$$
GRG
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TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN/CNTRL LA/MS
ERN
AR...WRN TN...SWRN KY...NWRN AL...MO BOOTHEEL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST
TO THE OH VALLEY...
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...SOME
OF WHICH SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT...
..SYNOPSIS
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF THE AZ/NM/MEXICAN BORDER WILL MOVE
EWD INTO WRN TX THIS MORNING BEFORE EJECTING NEWD AND DAMPENING
SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY. A SWATH OF INTENSE
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE FROM THE WRN/CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES TO THE MIDWEST. MODEST CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AN INITIALLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. PRIMARY SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MIDWEST. AS THIS
OCCURS...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD AS A COLD
FRONT.
..WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY
A BROAD WARM SECTOR OF 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED
AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM CNTRL TX TO THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL ADVANCE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WILL
LARGELY DELINEATE THE NRN/ERN EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...PROGRESSIVELY RICH PW VALUES TOWARDS THE GULF COAST SHOULD
YIELD WEAK TO MODEST BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PROBABLE
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT
12Z/SAT...GENERALLY WITHIN AND N OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. AS STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR...00Z
CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS THE SABINE TO LOWER
MS VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHT VEER-BACK DEEP-LAYER
WIND PROFILES SHOULD EXIST WITH SWRN EXTENT...LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS AOA
50 KT WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THIS LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES /SOME
OF WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG/.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD...CONSOLIDATION OF
FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL LIKELY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE
QLCS BY AFTERNOON. AMIDST 700 MB SWLYS AOA 60 KT AND VERY LARGE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...FAST-MOVING BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE
E/NEWD WITH RISKS OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH NERN EXTENT AND BECOME RATHER
LIMITED...THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW REGIME MAY MAINTAIN A VIGOROUS
QLCS AS FAR NE AS THE OH VALLEY.
FARTHER S...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY WANE LATER IN
THE PERIOD...RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS MAINTAINED AMIDST MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
..GRAMS/GOSS.. 12/21/2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN/CNTRL LA/MS
ERN
AR...WRN TN...SWRN KY...NWRN AL...MO BOOTHEEL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST
TO THE OH VALLEY...
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...SOME
OF WHICH SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT...
..SYNOPSIS
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF THE AZ/NM/MEXICAN BORDER WILL MOVE
EWD INTO WRN TX THIS MORNING BEFORE EJECTING NEWD AND DAMPENING
SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY. A SWATH OF INTENSE
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE FROM THE WRN/CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES TO THE MIDWEST. MODEST CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AN INITIALLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. PRIMARY SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MIDWEST. AS THIS
OCCURS...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD AS A COLD
FRONT.
..WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY
A BROAD WARM SECTOR OF 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED
AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM CNTRL TX TO THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL ADVANCE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WILL
LARGELY DELINEATE THE NRN/ERN EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...PROGRESSIVELY RICH PW VALUES TOWARDS THE GULF COAST SHOULD
YIELD WEAK TO MODEST BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PROBABLE
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT
12Z/SAT...GENERALLY WITHIN AND N OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. AS STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR...00Z
CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS THE SABINE TO LOWER
MS VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHT VEER-BACK DEEP-LAYER
WIND PROFILES SHOULD EXIST WITH SWRN EXTENT...LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS AOA
50 KT WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THIS LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES /SOME
OF WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG/.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD...CONSOLIDATION OF
FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL LIKELY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE
QLCS BY AFTERNOON. AMIDST 700 MB SWLYS AOA 60 KT AND VERY LARGE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...FAST-MOVING BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE
E/NEWD WITH RISKS OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH NERN EXTENT AND BECOME RATHER
LIMITED...THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW REGIME MAY MAINTAIN A VIGOROUS
QLCS AS FAR NE AS THE OH VALLEY.
FARTHER S...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY WANE LATER IN
THE PERIOD...RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS MAINTAINED AMIDST MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
..GRAMS/GOSS.. 12/21/2013
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 210837
ALZ000-ARZ000-KYZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-211800-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is forecasting
the development of a few strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging
wind over parts of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today
through tonight.
The areas most likely to experience this activity include:
Northwest Alabama
Central and Eastern Arkansas
Western Kentucky
Much of Louisiana
Far Southeast Missouri
Western and Northern Mississippi
Western and Middle Tennessee
Surrounding the greatest risk area, severe storms are also possible
from eastern Texas and the central Gulf Coast region into the Ohio
Valley.
A potent jet stream disturbance now over west Texas will track
northeast into Red River Valley later today, before accelerating
northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight and early Sunday.
Associated with this disturbance, an area of low pressure now
forming over eastern Texas will become better organized as it moves
northeast into southern Arkansas this afternoon, northwest Tennessee
this evening, and the lower Ohio Valley early Sunday.
Ahead of the low, a broad flow of unseasonably warm and humid air
will surge north from the western Gulf of Mexico into the lower
Mississippi, the lower Tennessee, and the Ohio Valleys through early
Sunday.
The increasing moisture and strong wind field that will accompany
the jet stream impulse will create an environment favorable for
bands of rotating thunderstorms capable of both potentially strong
tornadoes and damaging wind over a broad swath extending from
eastern Texas and southern Louisiana northeastward into the lower
Mississippi and lower Tennessee Valleys.
Although the severe weather threat is expected to be greatest this
afternoon through early tonight over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas,
Mississippi, and Tennessee, a more conditional risk for tornadoes
and damaging winds will persist into early Sunday from the central
Gulf Coast northeast into the mid-Ohio Valley.
State and local emergency managers are monitoring this developing
situation. Those in the threatened area are urged to review severe
weather safety rules and to listen to radio, television, and NOAA
Weather Radio for possible watches, warnings, and statements later
today.
..Corfidi.. 12/21/2013
WOUS40 KWNS 210837
ALZ000-ARZ000-KYZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-211800-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is forecasting
the development of a few strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging
wind over parts of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today
through tonight.
The areas most likely to experience this activity include:
Northwest Alabama
Central and Eastern Arkansas
Western Kentucky
Much of Louisiana
Far Southeast Missouri
Western and Northern Mississippi
Western and Middle Tennessee
Surrounding the greatest risk area, severe storms are also possible
from eastern Texas and the central Gulf Coast region into the Ohio
Valley.
A potent jet stream disturbance now over west Texas will track
northeast into Red River Valley later today, before accelerating
northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight and early Sunday.
Associated with this disturbance, an area of low pressure now
forming over eastern Texas will become better organized as it moves
northeast into southern Arkansas this afternoon, northwest Tennessee
this evening, and the lower Ohio Valley early Sunday.
Ahead of the low, a broad flow of unseasonably warm and humid air
will surge north from the western Gulf of Mexico into the lower
Mississippi, the lower Tennessee, and the Ohio Valleys through early
Sunday.
The increasing moisture and strong wind field that will accompany
the jet stream impulse will create an environment favorable for
bands of rotating thunderstorms capable of both potentially strong
tornadoes and damaging wind over a broad swath extending from
eastern Texas and southern Louisiana northeastward into the lower
Mississippi and lower Tennessee Valleys.
Although the severe weather threat is expected to be greatest this
afternoon through early tonight over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas,
Mississippi, and Tennessee, a more conditional risk for tornadoes
and damaging winds will persist into early Sunday from the central
Gulf Coast northeast into the mid-Ohio Valley.
State and local emergency managers are monitoring this developing
situation. Those in the threatened area are urged to review severe
weather safety rules and to listen to radio, television, and NOAA
Weather Radio for possible watches, warnings, and statements later
today.
..Corfidi.. 12/21/2013
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Widely expanded Moderate:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR
TN VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM E TX AND THE CNTRL GULF CST NE INTO THE OH VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TNGT OVER THE LWR MS
AND LWR TN VLYS. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SWATHS OF DMGG WINDS.
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING W TX SHOULD PIVOT NE ACROSS THE
RED RVR VLY LATER TODAY/EARLY TNGT...AND ACCELERATE NE INTO IL EARLY
SUN...AS LARGE-SCALE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ASSUME A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE IT
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OH VLY
LATER SUN.
AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
A SWATH OF SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR TO SURGE NE ACROSS THE LWR MS
VLY INTO MUCH OF THE OH VLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN. COUPLED WITH
THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THE UPR IMPULSE...SETUP WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF TSTMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH DMGG WIND
AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES LATER TODAY INTO TNGT.
...WRN/CNTRL GULF CST INTO THE OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...
SFC OBS SHOW STRONG/BROAD CURRENT OF VERY MOIST AIR SURGING N FROM
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO ATTM INTO THE LWR MS VLY...AHEAD OF
SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH W TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
NUMEROUS BUOYS REPORT 30 KT SLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70 F IN AREA
WITH PW AOA 1.50 INCHES. THE MOIST PLUME WILL SPREAD FARTHER NE
ACROSS THE OH VLY THROUGH EARLY SUN...AND LARGELY DELINEATE THE
NRN/ERN EXTENT OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER MOST
AREAS. BUT QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL EML
LIKELY WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY /MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/
FOR SUSTAINED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LWR MS VLY/DEEP SOUTH.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OCCURRING ALONG AND W OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR
IMPULSE APPROACHES THE WARM SECTOR. TOGETHER WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING OF CONFLUENT LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SETUP ALSO MAY
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER FAR E TX...LA...ERN AR...AND MS BY EARLY AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY AND NEGATIVE-TILT NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE MAY RESULT IN WIND PROFILES WITH A SLIGHT VEER-BACK PATTERN
IN THE VERTICAL...STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD /WITH 60-70 KT 850-700
MB WINDS BENEATH 100 KT FLOW AT 250 MB/ WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG/...SHOULD EXIST OVER PARTS OF LA...AR...MS...AND WRN TN THIS
AFTN/EARLY TNGT.
CONTINUED NE MOTION OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD FOSTER
CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONTAL AND PRE-FRONTAL STORMS INTO A FAIRLY
LENGTHY SQLN BY MID-LATE AFTN. ATTENDANT FAST-MOVING BOW/LEWP
STRUCTURES WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SWATHS OF DMGG WIND...IN
ADDITION TO A FEW TORNADOES...INTO THE NIGHT FROM WRN/CNTRL KY SSW
THROUGH TN INTO MS...AL...AND LA. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY
WILL DECREASE WITH NEWD EXTENT...THE STRONGEST LOW-LVL MASS
CONVERGENCE/WAA WILL FOCUS ON THE OH VLY BY LATE EVE. COUPLED WITH
THE INTENSITY OF THE WIND FIELD...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MODEST SFC
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THAT PART OF THE FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE OH
VLY...ISOLD TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR AS FAR N AS
PARTS OF IND...OH...AND WV THROUGH SUN MORNING.
..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 12/21/2013
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR
TN VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM E TX AND THE CNTRL GULF CST NE INTO THE OH VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TNGT OVER THE LWR MS
AND LWR TN VLYS. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SWATHS OF DMGG WINDS.
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING W TX SHOULD PIVOT NE ACROSS THE
RED RVR VLY LATER TODAY/EARLY TNGT...AND ACCELERATE NE INTO IL EARLY
SUN...AS LARGE-SCALE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ASSUME A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE IT
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OH VLY
LATER SUN.
AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
A SWATH OF SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR TO SURGE NE ACROSS THE LWR MS
VLY INTO MUCH OF THE OH VLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN. COUPLED WITH
THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THE UPR IMPULSE...SETUP WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF TSTMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH DMGG WIND
AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES LATER TODAY INTO TNGT.
...WRN/CNTRL GULF CST INTO THE OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...
SFC OBS SHOW STRONG/BROAD CURRENT OF VERY MOIST AIR SURGING N FROM
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO ATTM INTO THE LWR MS VLY...AHEAD OF
SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH W TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
NUMEROUS BUOYS REPORT 30 KT SLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70 F IN AREA
WITH PW AOA 1.50 INCHES. THE MOIST PLUME WILL SPREAD FARTHER NE
ACROSS THE OH VLY THROUGH EARLY SUN...AND LARGELY DELINEATE THE
NRN/ERN EXTENT OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER MOST
AREAS. BUT QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL EML
LIKELY WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY /MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/
FOR SUSTAINED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LWR MS VLY/DEEP SOUTH.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OCCURRING ALONG AND W OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR
IMPULSE APPROACHES THE WARM SECTOR. TOGETHER WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING OF CONFLUENT LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SETUP ALSO MAY
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER FAR E TX...LA...ERN AR...AND MS BY EARLY AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY AND NEGATIVE-TILT NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE MAY RESULT IN WIND PROFILES WITH A SLIGHT VEER-BACK PATTERN
IN THE VERTICAL...STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD /WITH 60-70 KT 850-700
MB WINDS BENEATH 100 KT FLOW AT 250 MB/ WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG/...SHOULD EXIST OVER PARTS OF LA...AR...MS...AND WRN TN THIS
AFTN/EARLY TNGT.
CONTINUED NE MOTION OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD FOSTER
CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONTAL AND PRE-FRONTAL STORMS INTO A FAIRLY
LENGTHY SQLN BY MID-LATE AFTN. ATTENDANT FAST-MOVING BOW/LEWP
STRUCTURES WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SWATHS OF DMGG WIND...IN
ADDITION TO A FEW TORNADOES...INTO THE NIGHT FROM WRN/CNTRL KY SSW
THROUGH TN INTO MS...AL...AND LA. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY
WILL DECREASE WITH NEWD EXTENT...THE STRONGEST LOW-LVL MASS
CONVERGENCE/WAA WILL FOCUS ON THE OH VLY BY LATE EVE. COUPLED WITH
THE INTENSITY OF THE WIND FIELD...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MODEST SFC
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THAT PART OF THE FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE OH
VLY...ISOLD TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR AS FAR N AS
PARTS OF IND...OH...AND WV THROUGH SUN MORNING.
..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 12/21/2013
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Re: Tornado outbreak 12-21?
Just stepped outside here in Tuscaloosa, feels like spring. 71 degrees with a 67 degree dew point.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139784
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tornado outbreak 12-21?
Tornado Watch issued
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 950 AM UNTIL
600 PM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
ANGLETON TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY WHILE
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INTENSIFYING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
PROMOTE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES --SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT-- AND CORRIDORS OF WIND
DAMAGE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22050.
...MEAD
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 950 AM UNTIL
600 PM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
ANGLETON TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY WHILE
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INTENSIFYING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
PROMOTE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES --SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT-- AND CORRIDORS OF WIND
DAMAGE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22050.
...MEAD
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211645Z - 211745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADS ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER INTO AR/LA. NUMEROUS SMALL
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS SERN TX/WRN LA OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION IS NOW SPREADING NEWD INTO SERN
AR...AS EVIDENT BY ORGANIZED UPDRAFT OVER UNION COUNTY. THIS STORM
HAS STRENGTHENED NEAR THE SHALLOW POLAR FRONT AND SHOULD LIFT NEWD
TOWARD THE MEMPHIS METRO REGION...NEAR/JUST WEST OF SAGGING FRONTAL
ZONE. STRONGLY SHEARED AIRMASS SHOULD ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT FOR
WARM SECTOR UPDRAFTS THAT STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY.
..DARROW/MEAD.. 12/21/2013
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211645Z - 211745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADS ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER INTO AR/LA. NUMEROUS SMALL
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS SERN TX/WRN LA OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION IS NOW SPREADING NEWD INTO SERN
AR...AS EVIDENT BY ORGANIZED UPDRAFT OVER UNION COUNTY. THIS STORM
HAS STRENGTHENED NEAR THE SHALLOW POLAR FRONT AND SHOULD LIFT NEWD
TOWARD THE MEMPHIS METRO REGION...NEAR/JUST WEST OF SAGGING FRONTAL
ZONE. STRONGLY SHEARED AIRMASS SHOULD ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT FOR
WARM SECTOR UPDRAFTS THAT STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY.
..DARROW/MEAD.. 12/21/2013
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
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WeatherGuesser
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- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139784
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tornado outbreak 12-21?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
* UNTIL 345 PM CST
* AT 321 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HUGHES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HUGHES AND
WEST MEMPHIS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
* UNTIL 345 PM CST
* AT 321 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HUGHES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HUGHES AND
WEST MEMPHIS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
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