Texas Fall 2013

[Tireman4]

Wishful thinking.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for starting the thread, Tireman4. The North Texas office of the PWC (Ntxw) is promising westerlies taking hold soon ... and fropas soon to follow.

[Ntxw]

Indeed, I know many are awaiting the first real front none more than Tireman4. There are good signs as Portastorm mentioned westerlies (Jet stream moving further south into the PAC NW coast) breaking down ridging and shorter wavelengths kicking in the transition of the seasons. With that as well the AO is about to dip it low which is another good sign that a large scale pattern change is in the works. I hope this gives Tireman4 some hope! When? Last week of September, sooner if we get a tropical system. If no system it will be gradual lowering of temps until a big front arrives.



Last month I posted in the winter thread the analog years showed a warm fall (SON) and so far has verified fairly well halfway through September with the wildcard being the tropics keeping our region cool (that has not verified).

For the most part I think it's fairly safe to say 100s are over with for most of us.

[weatherdude1108]

Can we get some big industrial-sized fans down there near the tropical remnants, aimed more in this direction, PLEEEAAAASE?!?!?

000
FXUS64 KEWX 160836
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
336 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HURRICANE INGRID WILL MAKE LANDFALL LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A
TILTED STRUCTURE KEEPING MOST OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION TO EAST
AND SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION FORMING FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AND ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST IS IN PART DUE TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ALSO
THE MOISTURE POOLING FROM A WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
SHEARED STRUCTURE OF INGRID MAY WORK TO HELP ADVECT MORE MOISTURE
INTO SOUTH TX AFTER THE STORM UNDERGOES RAPID WEAKENING ON LAND.
POP TRENDS FOR TODAY ARE UP FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL REMAINING IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY FOR CENTRAL TX. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE TOO MODEST FOR
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE...THE
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS...AND STORM MOTIONS AROUND 25 MPH. ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE HOWEVER...TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY ACCOUNT FOR
MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER MEXICO...SO THE HWO MENTION OF
POSSIBLE RISES ON THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS WARRANTED FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY.

HIGH PWAT VALUES SHOULD PROMOTE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A NICE
ADJUSTMENT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND PROBABLY A MODEST
ADJUSTMENT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TROPICAL REMNANTS FROM THE TWO DISTURBANCES OVER MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL NORTH INTO MAINLY WEST TEXAS AND THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT STILL LEAVING A WEAKENED UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES FOR MOSTLY DAYTIME AND EVENING RAIN CHANCES IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S FOR MOST
AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BRING
DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOWS A
PROMISING TREND FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SO INCREASING WESTERLIES ALOFT TO NUDGE A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT
CONTAINS A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF THE TROPICAL REMNANT MOISTURE.
THIS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO PROMOTE A FRONTAL ZONE THAT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TX. WILL KEEP EXTENDED PERIOD RAIN CHANCES
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECASTS.

[Portastorm]

Well weatherdude1108, the encouraging thing is that most of the medium-range models show a wet end of the work week into the weekend. The Euro and CMC are more bullish than the GFS. The Brits (UKMet) also say rain chances look good late this week. #fingerscrossed.

[dhweather]

From FWD AFD, authored by Dennis Cavanaugh


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD IS...WILL
WE HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE COURTESY OF
MANUEL AND INGRID? IF WE DO...POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED MORE
THAN WHAT WE ARE CARRYING AT THIS TIME. EACH DAY A DIFFERENT MODEL
SHOWS THIS SOLUTION WHILE ANOTHER ONE BACKS OFF. THE CONSENSUS IS
ALWAYS AN ANSWER OF /NO/...BUT THE CONSENSUS NEVER CONSISTS OF THE
SAME MODELS. AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE THE MEXICAN
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL END UP AT THIS TIME.

EITHER WAY...THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD SEND A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTH
TX WHICH SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. WE ALREADY HAD 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE
FORECAST ALONG THIS FRONT...SO JUST MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE MEXICAN TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME IN THE COMING DAYS. IF THIS MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IT
DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE WHEN WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS...IT JUST
AFFECTS THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. EITHER WAY...WE WILL
LIKELY BE DRY ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH

[Ntxw]

Euro is leaning towards progress. First "taste" front around the equinox followed by a larger scale pattern shift. May even give us some thunderstorm activity/severe weather across the conus somewhere if the late euro pans out. As many of the AFD's have said, Ingrid/Manuel remnants may or may not enhance rain.

First "front"

[Tireman4]

So that means this weekend..or....?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: So that means this weekend..or....?

That is correct sir, both the GFS and Euro agree. Sat/Sunday with a front heading south and pooling moisture. Should be an active weekend and localized heavy rain in some places.

[Tireman4]

Woo Hoo. At least a break from this disgusting humid, torture fest runs.....

[dhweather]

FWD AFD

THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH TEXAS HAS SEEN IN AWHILE LOOKS TO BE
COMING TOGETHER ON FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN/ECMWF/GFS ARE ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG TROUGH ENTERING THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL SEND A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY.
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SERVE TWO MAIN PURPOSES FOR RAIN
PRODUCTION FOR THE CWA. FIRST...THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. SECONDLY...THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...LIFT
AND A SURFACE FOCUS WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY. SINCE THIS IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT AND THINGS CAN
CHANGE WENT WITH A 50 POP FOR THE AREA FRIDAY. WAS CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO 50 GIVEN THE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
MEMBERS AND WITHIN THE GFS ENSEMBLE GROUP. PRECIP CHANCES WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...LOWS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE AND BRING US CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HAMPSHIRE

[Ntxw]

Beautiful weather still on tap this weekend. Rain (1-2 inches) for a lot of us, donut holes excluded , followed by very comfortable temps. 70s/low 80s for North/Northeast Texas and dry air, 80s in Central and Southeast Texas, rain chances here will likely last a bit longer through Saturday. 60s for lows returns, make plans for some outdoor activities Saturday and Sunday!

[AggieSpirit]

Should it be clear in DFW by Sat afternoon for soccer game?

Want the rain of course!

[Ntxw]

Should it be clear in DFW by Sat afternoon for soccer game?

Want the rain of course!

Most of the rain will be Friday, Sat afternoon looks to clear out, sunshine and 70s/low 80s with a northerly breeze.

[gboudx]

Would suck if 95L "gets in the way" and shuts off the tropical moisture from reaching this far north. Considering how it's been going for us and rain here in the Metroplex, I would almost bet good money this happens.

[Ptarmigan]

Would suck if 95L "gets in the way" and shuts off the tropical moisture from reaching this far north. Considering how it's been going for us and rain here in the Metroplex, I would almost bet good money this happens.

Depends if 95L develops or not.

[dhweather]

Would suck if 95L "gets in the way" and shuts off the tropical moisture from reaching this far north. Considering how it's been going for us and rain here in the Metroplex, I would almost bet good money this happens.

I'd bet this is exactly what happens. We'll be lucky to get 1/4" of rain.

[Portastorm]

Would suck if 95L "gets in the way" and shuts off the tropical moisture from reaching this far north. Considering how it's been going for us and rain here in the Metroplex, I would almost bet good money this happens.

I'd bet this is exactly what happens. We'll be lucky to get 1/4" of rain.

It gets "better" ... how about this? Hurricane in Gulf sucks up moisture ... front comes through relatively dry ... hurricane moves north and hits the Central Gulf Coast, pulling down strong north winds which help create multiple wildfires across the state. Hmm ... where have we seen that before?!

[Tireman4]

Hey. Stop that. Snap out of it. You all are just a bucket of love. I am hoping for copious amounts of rain. Lots of it. My only problem is that it will heat back up next week. I want FALL!!!

Edit: And I say that, the temperatures went down to 90's for highs and upper 60's for lows...

[Ntxw]

Yeah guys have some faith! Could be worse...could be 100 and no chance of rain. Baby steps, let tireman have his little piece of heaven for the time being.