Is time to have a separated thread from the main 2013 U.S Severe Weather general thread.
Tornado Watch
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 6...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
932 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
KSC011-021-037-MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-105-
109-119-131-141-145-167-185-209-217-225-292000-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.A.0006.000000T0000Z-130129T2100Z/
TORNADO WATCH 6 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 22 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
BENTON CAMDEN HICKORY
MILLER MORGAN ST. CLAIR
IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
BARRY BARTON CEDAR
CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS
GREENE JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
POLK STONE VERNON
WEBSTER
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...APPLETON CITY...AURORA...
BAXTER SPRINGS...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...CAMDENTON...CARTHAGE...
CASSVILLE...COLE CAMP...COLUMBUS...EL DORADO SPRINGS...ELDON...
FORT SCOTT...GALENA...GREENFIELD...HERMITAGE...JOPLIN...
KIMBERLING CITY...LAKE OZARK...LAMAR...LEBANON...MARSHFIELD...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...NIXA...OSAGE BEACH...
OSCEOLA...OZARK...PINEVILLE...PITTSBURG...REPUBLIC...
ROGERSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON...VERSAILLES AND WARSAW.
$$
Severe Weather January 29-30
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145277
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Severe Weather January 29-30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145277
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather for Jan 29-30 for MISS,AR,TN,MI,KS,ALA
Latest Torcon Numbers by Dr Forbes:
Tue Jan 29
Severe thunderstorms, many in a cold front squall line but some in advance, in north-central
and east TX, south-central and east OK, extreme southeast KS, south, central, and northeast MO, south, central, and northeast IL, west-central and north IN, AR, northwest LA. TORCON - 6 northeast TX, northwest LA, central and east AR; 3 to 4 for the rest of the above area. Numerous damaging wind gusts.
Tuesday night
Severe thunderstorms in east-central and south IL, IN, west and central OH, KY, TN, north and west AL, MS, LA, extreme east TX, southwest, central, and east AR, southeast MO. TORCON - 6 north LA, central and east AR, west TN; 5 southeast MO, west and central KY, middle TN, central MS, north AL; 3 to 4 other areas above. Numerous damaging wind gusts.
Wed Jan 30
Severe thunderstorms in south and east OH, south PA, MD, DE, south NJ, DC, WV, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL panhandle, AL, east half KY, east half TN, east-central and south AL, southeast LA. TORCON - 5 AL, east TN, east KY; 4 to 5 north GA; 3 to 4 rest of above area. Damaging non-thunderstorm gusts may extend across east PA, NJ, south NY.
Jeff Masters
Tue Jan 29
Severe thunderstorms, many in a cold front squall line but some in advance, in north-central
and east TX, south-central and east OK, extreme southeast KS, south, central, and northeast MO, south, central, and northeast IL, west-central and north IN, AR, northwest LA. TORCON - 6 northeast TX, northwest LA, central and east AR; 3 to 4 for the rest of the above area. Numerous damaging wind gusts.
Tuesday night
Severe thunderstorms in east-central and south IL, IN, west and central OH, KY, TN, north and west AL, MS, LA, extreme east TX, southwest, central, and east AR, southeast MO. TORCON - 6 north LA, central and east AR, west TN; 5 southeast MO, west and central KY, middle TN, central MS, north AL; 3 to 4 other areas above. Numerous damaging wind gusts.
Wed Jan 30
Severe thunderstorms in south and east OH, south PA, MD, DE, south NJ, DC, WV, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL panhandle, AL, east half KY, east half TN, east-central and south AL, southeast LA. TORCON - 5 AL, east TN, east KY; 4 to 5 north GA; 3 to 4 rest of above area. Damaging non-thunderstorm gusts may extend across east PA, NJ, south NY.
Jeff Masters
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather for Jan 29-30 for lower MS Valley
SPC AC 291620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
ERN TX/OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 01/29/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1631Z (11:31AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
ERN TX/OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 01/29/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1631Z (11:31AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145277
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather for Jan 29-30 for lower MS Valley
CrazyC83 wrote:SPC AC 291620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
ERN TX/OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 01/29/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1631Z (11:31AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 291635
ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-TNZ000-TXZ000-300200-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
AND SEVERAL TORNADOES OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
MUCH OF ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST.
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID SOUTH...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE AND
INDIVIDUAL STORMS CROSS THIS AREA...CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES. SOME STORMS MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY
SEVERE.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.
..COHEN.. 01/29/2013
$$
WOUS40 KWNS 291635
ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-TNZ000-TXZ000-300200-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
AND SEVERAL TORNADOES OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
MUCH OF ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST.
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID SOUTH...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE AND
INDIVIDUAL STORMS CROSS THIS AREA...CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES. SOME STORMS MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY
SEVERE.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.
..COHEN.. 01/29/2013
$$
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:1630: Moderate Risk greatly expanded to the north, northeast and west
Yeah, and I'm dead in it. Gonna be a fun night. (NOT!)
Really, really, really hoping for a bust.
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO N CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291637Z - 291730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR SAN ANGELO NNEWD INTO SRN OK. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY STRONG WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER
DUE TO PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FARTHER E. HOWEVER...OVERALL
LAPSE RATE PROFILES ARE STEEPER NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AND HEATING
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS.
SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWS APPEAR LIKELY AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
MATURE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS AS
STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY NNEWD.
..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30409988 30600050 31010057 32369928 33709830 34219767
34029700 33499650 32919642 32569649 31309743 30799821
30409988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO N CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291637Z - 291730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR SAN ANGELO NNEWD INTO SRN OK. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY STRONG WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER
DUE TO PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FARTHER E. HOWEVER...OVERALL
LAPSE RATE PROFILES ARE STEEPER NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AND HEATING
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS.
SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWS APPEAR LIKELY AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
MATURE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS AS
STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY NNEWD.
..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30409988 30600050 31010057 32369928 33709830 34219767
34029700 33499650 32919642 32569649 31309743 30799821
30409988
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WeatherGuesser
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Thoughts on potential to go High?
Wiki shows one in 1999, so it isn't unheard of.
Wiki shows one in 1999, so it isn't unheard of.
Last edited by WeatherGuesser on Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
WeatherGuesser wrote:Thoughts on potential to go High?
Right now I see it as 50/50. Depends on how much inestability and cape is around.
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WeatherGuesser
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145277
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather Jan 29-30 for lower MS Valley/OH Valley
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1059 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 1115 AM CST
* AT 1057 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CEDAR COUNTY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.
HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1059 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 1115 AM CST
* AT 1057 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CEDAR COUNTY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.
HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MO...W-CNTRL/SWRN
IL...N-CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291754Z - 291930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO INTO S-CNTRL
OK...WHILE LEADING WAA AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS SWRN MO/NWRN AR.
A LEWP STRUCTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OVER HICKORY/BENTON
COUNTIES MO IS TRACKING ENEWD AROUND 50 KT...AND SHOULD EXIT WW6
AROUND 19Z IF IT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR FORWARD MOTION. TRANSIENT
MESOCYCLONES HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE...AND ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES -- BOWS/SUPERCELLS -- WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE AND WITHIN SEMI-DISCRETE LEADING CONVECTION.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OVER 60 KT OF DEEP SHEAR AND AROUND 375 M2/S2
OF EFFECTIVE SRH PER 18Z SGF RAOB. THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
OFFSET ONLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY DEPICTED BY THE RAOB. AS SUCH...DMGG
WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT INCREASING AFTER 19Z.
..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 38929249 39739180 39989086 39678985 38088952 36879004
35869156 35909324 37629260 38929249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MO...W-CNTRL/SWRN
IL...N-CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291754Z - 291930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO INTO S-CNTRL
OK...WHILE LEADING WAA AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS SWRN MO/NWRN AR.
A LEWP STRUCTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OVER HICKORY/BENTON
COUNTIES MO IS TRACKING ENEWD AROUND 50 KT...AND SHOULD EXIT WW6
AROUND 19Z IF IT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR FORWARD MOTION. TRANSIENT
MESOCYCLONES HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE...AND ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES -- BOWS/SUPERCELLS -- WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE AND WITHIN SEMI-DISCRETE LEADING CONVECTION.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OVER 60 KT OF DEEP SHEAR AND AROUND 375 M2/S2
OF EFFECTIVE SRH PER 18Z SGF RAOB. THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
OFFSET ONLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY DEPICTED BY THE RAOB. AS SUCH...DMGG
WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT INCREASING AFTER 19Z.
..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 38929249 39739180 39989086 39678985 38088952 36879004
35869156 35909324 37629260 38929249
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather Jan 29-30 for lower MS Valley/OH Valley
Tomorrow:
SPC AC 291730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SERN STATES...OH
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VORT MAX EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH
THE TN AND OH VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 120+ KT
500 MB JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH
SERN STATES...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. PRIMARY SFC
LOW WILL INITIALLY BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SERN
CANADA...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SERN
STATES...REACHING THE NERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
...SERN U.S. THROUGH OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED THROUGH THE
WARM SECTOR ALONG A VERY STRONG AND EXPANSIVE 65-75 KT SLY LLJ.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 60S OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COASTAL STATES TO UPPER 50S OR AROUND 60 FROM THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES.
MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM AOB 800 J/KG OVER THE SERN STATES TO AOB
500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC.
EXPANSIVE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE TN
AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS POSING AN ONGOING SEVERE THREAT.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SERN STATES AND OH
VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG
DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT
ALONG WITH LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES...MESO-VORTICES AND SUPERCELLS. POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION AND WEAK CAP
SUGGEST A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG CONVEYOR BELT
AHEAD OF THE LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER A PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES
WHERE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE.
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES...WITH THE
GREATER TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED OVER THE SERN STATES. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK AT
THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED.
..DIAL.. 01/29/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1801Z (1:01PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 291730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SERN STATES...OH
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VORT MAX EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH
THE TN AND OH VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 120+ KT
500 MB JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH
SERN STATES...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. PRIMARY SFC
LOW WILL INITIALLY BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SERN
CANADA...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SERN
STATES...REACHING THE NERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
...SERN U.S. THROUGH OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED THROUGH THE
WARM SECTOR ALONG A VERY STRONG AND EXPANSIVE 65-75 KT SLY LLJ.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 60S OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COASTAL STATES TO UPPER 50S OR AROUND 60 FROM THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES.
MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM AOB 800 J/KG OVER THE SERN STATES TO AOB
500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC.
EXPANSIVE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE TN
AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS POSING AN ONGOING SEVERE THREAT.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SERN STATES AND OH
VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG
DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT
ALONG WITH LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES...MESO-VORTICES AND SUPERCELLS. POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION AND WEAK CAP
SUGGEST A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG CONVEYOR BELT
AHEAD OF THE LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER A PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES
WHERE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE.
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES...WITH THE
GREATER TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED OVER THE SERN STATES. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK AT
THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED.
..DIAL.. 01/29/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1801Z (1:01PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 6...WW 7...WW 8...
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NW AR INTO SRN MO. THOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE BOTH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...THOMPSON
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 6...WW 7...WW 8...
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NW AR INTO SRN MO. THOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE BOTH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...THOMPSON
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JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
Re: Severe Weather Jan 29-30 for lower MS Valley/OH Valley
My thoughts on the outbreak mainly in respect to Florida: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... ront-door/
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK AND NWRN AR NNEWD INTO CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6...9...
VALID 291919Z - 292015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 6...9...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
TORNADO WATCHES 6 AND 9.
DISCUSSION...SGF WSR-88D DATA DEPICT SHALLOW MESOVORTICES EVOLVING
WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO INTO NERN OK.
THESE FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE LINE HAS APPROACHED
THE RDA...ALLOWING FOR BETTER SAMPLING OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. A
PAIR OF SUCH CIRCULATIONS IS EVIDENT IN NRN GREENE COUNTY MO...WITH
ADDITIONAL CIRCULATIONS EVIDENT TO THE NE AND SW. WITH AROUND 350
M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH PER SGF VWP DATA...THESE MESOVORTICES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD...AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES AMIDST MARGINAL BUOYANCY. THIS COULD
BE OF INCREASING CONCERN AS THE COLD POOL ACCOMPANYING THE SQUALL
LINE OVERTAKES LEADING CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...POTENTIALLY YIELDING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.
..COHEN.. 01/29/2013
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36439506 35879564 35509569 35439432 35899335 37199236
38669125 39299134 39309194 38659247 37419364 36439506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK AND NWRN AR NNEWD INTO CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6...9...
VALID 291919Z - 292015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 6...9...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
TORNADO WATCHES 6 AND 9.
DISCUSSION...SGF WSR-88D DATA DEPICT SHALLOW MESOVORTICES EVOLVING
WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO INTO NERN OK.
THESE FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE LINE HAS APPROACHED
THE RDA...ALLOWING FOR BETTER SAMPLING OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. A
PAIR OF SUCH CIRCULATIONS IS EVIDENT IN NRN GREENE COUNTY MO...WITH
ADDITIONAL CIRCULATIONS EVIDENT TO THE NE AND SW. WITH AROUND 350
M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH PER SGF VWP DATA...THESE MESOVORTICES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD...AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES AMIDST MARGINAL BUOYANCY. THIS COULD
BE OF INCREASING CONCERN AS THE COLD POOL ACCOMPANYING THE SQUALL
LINE OVERTAKES LEADING CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...POTENTIALLY YIELDING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.
..COHEN.. 01/29/2013
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36439506 35879564 35509569 35439432 35899335 37199236
38669125 39299134 39309194 38659247 37419364 36439506
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 291956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN TX...NRN
LA...EXTREME SERN OK...MOST OF AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN
TN AND NWRN MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND A PORTION OF
THE OH VALLEY...
...NERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY WRN TN AND SWRN OH VALLEY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS.
SFC LOW OVER NERN OK WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. INTENSE 60-70 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW-MID 60S
DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM SHV AND LZK ALREADY INDICATE LOW 60S NEAR SFC
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 700 MB. THIS INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE ELIMINATED AS THE
ATMOSPHERE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATE
EVIDENCE OF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.
SQUALL LINE FROM ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/SWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AXIS.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. OTHER ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE WITHIN THE MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES.
..DIAL.. 01/29/2013
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN TX...NRN
LA...EXTREME SERN OK...MOST OF AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN
TN AND NWRN MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND A PORTION OF
THE OH VALLEY...
...NERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY WRN TN AND SWRN OH VALLEY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS.
SFC LOW OVER NERN OK WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. INTENSE 60-70 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW-MID 60S
DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM SHV AND LZK ALREADY INDICATE LOW 60S NEAR SFC
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 700 MB. THIS INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE ELIMINATED AS THE
ATMOSPHERE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATE
EVIDENCE OF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.
SQUALL LINE FROM ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/SWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AXIS.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. OTHER ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE WITHIN THE MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES.
..DIAL.. 01/29/2013
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