2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

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JenBayles
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2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#1 Postby JenBayles » Mon Jan 07, 2013 2:39 pm

Happy New Year! It looks like we begin the new year with bang. We're in the bullseye for flooding rains and possible tornadoes Tuesday and Wednesday. Will we get dry slotted or end up all wet?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 AM CST MON JAN 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COASTAL SITES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS FAR INLAND AS KIAH...BUT ARE MOST LIKELY AT KLBX
AND KGLS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE
LATE EVENING. AREAS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SEA FOG MAY
AFFECT THE COASTAL SITES OVERNIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST MON JAN 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST TODAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW ONSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
EVENING. SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS A LARGE SWATH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER SPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL MOVE
TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST FROM THE LOW TO JUST SOUTH OF MATAGORDA BAY AND THEN OUT OVER
THE GULF. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY NORTH INTO SE TX BY
TUESDAY EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY TUES
EVENING AND FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 600 MB.
UPPER LEVELS WINDS BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT BY WED 00Z. WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...FEEL HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE
WARRANTED. THE HIGH RES NMM SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF 2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND HAVE SOME CONCERN
THAT DESPITE FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP
AS LOWER/MID 60S DEW POINT AIR OVER RIDE WATER TEMPS IN THE LOWER
50S.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH
HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT THE TEXAS TECH 3 KM WRF AND THE NAM FOCUS
MORE OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER SE
TEXAS. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS...
SLOWER CANADIAN WITH THE ECMWF KIND OF IN BETWEEN. THE 00Z GFS IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DRY SLOTTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTN
ENDING THE PRECIP MUCH SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM NEVER
BRINGS THE PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE BUT THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD SUGGEST STRONG
DIVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE. WISH THE MODELS WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT SE TX COULD GET DRY SLOTTED BY 18Z IF THE 00Z
GFS IS CORRECT. THAT SAID...THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND LEAN TOWARD
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL. MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT 3
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL OVER MUCH OF SE TX BETWEEN 18Z
(NOON) TUESDAY AND 00Z (6 PM) THURSDAY. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SE TX IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. RAIN
SHOULD END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AND WARMER AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS NEXT SAT NITE OR
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
GOING THROUGH MONDAY.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#2 Postby JenBayles » Mon Jan 07, 2013 5:16 pm

When the NWS issues a Flash Flood Watch before even one drop of rain has come down, you'd better pay attention!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
323 PM CST MON JAN 7 2013

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-080530-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0001.130108T1800Z-130110T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
323 PM CST MON JAN 7 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START EARLY TUESDAY NEAR THE COAST AND THEN
EXPAND NORTHWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL REGION
LATE TUESDAY AND WILL HELP TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS.

* GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE RAINFALL STREET FLOODING WILL
BECOME MORE COMMON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WORSEN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TRAVEL MAY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. MAINSTEM RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING
MAY BECOME INVOLVED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LARGE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL AND THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
THE GROUND TO QUICKLY SATURATE AND RAIN TO RUNOFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

IF POSSIBLE AVOID TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT
DELAYS IF TRAVEL CANNOT BE PUT OFF TO A LATER TIME.


YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
AS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#3 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:29 pm

Yep, it definitely looks like a busy few days ahead, especially the flooding potential. Everyone stay safe!
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#4 Postby JenBayles » Mon Jan 07, 2013 10:54 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
850 PM CST MON JAN 7 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRAPHICASTS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S MM BRIEFING OUT ON OUR
WEB PAGE COMMUNICATING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT(S). THIS EVENING`S LOWERING PRESSURES OVER CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO IS THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE COUPLE OF
MID-WEEK DAYS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THIS VERY ADVERTISED EVENT
IS STILL FORECAST TO COME TO FRUITION BEGINNING TOMORROW AS A WARM
FRONT SLIDES UP FROM THE COASTAL BEND. A VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIR
MASS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THAT...IN TANDEM WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WILL PROVIDE THE
(THERMO)DYNAMICS FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE WIND/TORNADO SITUATION.
THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN GOOD TURNING (BACKING) OF THE
LOWER 3KM WINDS LEADING TO HIGHER HELICITIES ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOMORROW. THIS INDICATES A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
STRONG CELLS DISPLAYING ROTATING UPDRAFT STRUCTURE...COULD LEAD
TO SUPERCELL ACTIVITY WITH A ISOLATED TORNADO MENTION. THE MAIN
THREAT STILL REMAINS HIGH RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING. THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS WE
FALL WITHIN THE 24 HOUR WINDOW OF THIS THREAT. TRAINING
CELLS...EITHER IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME TOMORROW OR AHEAD
OF THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...WILL CREATE
AVERAGE AREAWIDE 3 TO 5 INCHES (WITH LOCALLY 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION). DARK HOUR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ONLY HEIGHTENS THE NEED FOR STRESSING THIS
FLOODING THREAT.
31
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#5 Postby mcheer23 » Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:07 am

SE Texas is expected to be pretty wet next week...
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#6 Postby Jagno » Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:20 am

Okay, I just felt downright guilty for posting in the "Winter Weather" thread today when we're in the 70's and so many of our friends are really battling some extremely cold temperatures.

These low 70's days and upper 50º nights is the perfect weather for me. Whoever ordered it, thank you. Can we please just keep this forecast forever. No rain in our forecast until Tuesday. Perfect weekend for playing in the dirt and getting some landscaping done.

Of course every rose has a thorn and ours is mosquitoes. Three days ago I had to call in the big boys "The Mosquito Authority" to get these mosquitoes under control. I swore that after last year I would NOT go through that again whereby I'd go outside to feed the dogs and come in with upwards of 15-20 mosquito bites. I tried pellets, spray and everything I could with little to no success. It may cost me $100 every 21 days to keep them at bay but the way I see it is that it's still cheaper than West Nile.

Hope everyone has a beautiful weekend and is able to enjoy some of this gentle sunshine a little.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#7 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:59 am

Posting here and in the Winter thread. Jeff's morning email.
Fairly active WSW to SW flow aloft will bring a few chances of rainfall to the region this week in an overall unsettled pattern.

Patchy dense fog across portions of the area is lifting into more of a low deck of stratus clouds, except near the coast and in the bays where thicker sea fog is currently in place. Will continue to deal with the threat for periods of dense sea fog along the coast for the next 24 hours as fairly light to moderate winds combined with warm moist air flowing over the cooler nearshore waters promotes fog development. SE TX will be in between systems today with only a few scattered showers possible mainly E of I-45 and south of I-10.

Attention will focus on the Wednesday afternoon and overnight period as a fairly strong short wave trough in the SW flow aloft moves out of Mexico and into SW and then SC TX on Wednesday and Wednesday afternoon. Low level moisture is already increased over the area in response to a weak short wave passage yesterday afternoon which was able to squeeze out a few fast moving showers. This next incoming system appears more well defined and stronger in the model guidance with both the global and shorter term meso models showing a fair amount of upstream thunderstorms development on Wednesday late morning into the early afternoon over the Rio Grande plains into SC TX and then spreading ESE into the coastal bend and SE TX during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. While the low level flow backs to the ESE enhancing the low level shear late Wednesday, the amount of available instability appears to be lacking for a significant severe weather threat. Additionally clouds will hamper early day heating and forecast soundings only show a small amount of instability through the air column. For now, this looks like an isolated severe weather threat mainly south of I-10, but any modest heating on Wednesday could result in SPC upgrading parts of the area into a slight risk.

Of greater importance is the threat for heavy rainfall mainly over the southern ½ of the region Wednesday-Wednesday night. Short term meso models are suggestive of a couple of bands of training convection over SE TX during this period as the lift from the short wave combines with the southerly low level jet and copious Gulf moisture. Moisture levels will be high with PWS of 1.5 inches but not excessive. Meso models are attempting to develop activity along some sort of boundary near the coast…could be a weak coastal front or air mass change zone due to more surface heating over S TX on Wednesday. I will follow along with the TX TECH WRF model which did well with the early Jan 2013 rainfall event and this model places at least of couple of lines of thunderstorms across the area well into Wednesday night. South of I-10 rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible with isolated amounts of 3 inches while north of I-10 amounts will generally average .5 to 1 inch. Should see rains come to an end Thursday morning…but there may be some left over showers especially near the coast early before drier air arrives from the west.

Area will be dry from Thursday afternoon-Friday ahead of a major SW US storm system that begins to approach the plains over the weekend. Moist southerly flow begins on Saturday, but minus any undetected disturbances in the upper level flow Saturday should be a fairly dry day. With moisture increasing off the Gulf, will throw in a 20% rain chance for any streamer showers on Saturday. Rain chances begin to increase Sunday-Monday as increasing lift from the large storm system spreads into the plains. Still some timing and thermodynamic uncertainties in the forecast for this system in terms of potential capping and severe weather parameters.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#8 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:29 am

Storms this evening? Jeff sees a chance:
Potential for showers and thunderstorms tonight into early Wednesday.

Cool front has moved off the coast overnight with a drier air mass now over the region and high temperatures today running a good 10 degrees lower than the record heat on Monday. Winds are already starting to shift around to the E and SE this morning and the frontal boundary will begin to return northward as a warm front by early afternoon. Aloft a powerful short wave disturbance over the Great Basin this morning will move ESE toward central and SE TX by late afternoon. Advection of colder air aloft over warm afternoon surface temperatures will make for an increasingly unstable air mass by late afternoon near/along the returning warm front. High resolution short term models show a rapid increase in thunderstorms late this afternoon from central TX into the northern sections of SE TX along the warm front as strong lift from the disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable air mass. Forecasted instability of 1000-1500 J/kg is expect north of I-10 by mid to late afternoon and this combined with favorable shear will support a few strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail being the primary threat. Low level winds typically back near warm fronts and potentially can enhance the tornado threat however surface dewpoints only near 60 suggest high cloud bases and this will likely reduce the tornado threat.

Initial storm mode will be isolated strong to severe supercells which will gradually transition into a broken line of thunderstorms. Storms should affect most of the areas north of I-10 and possibly all the way to the coast overnight. TX TECH WRF model shows most of the activity focused in the corridor from College Station to Liberty while the HRRR shows more widespread activity affecting nearly all of the area but does weaken any storms as they cross south of I-10 toward the coast. Current thinking is that storms will develop and affect much of the northern counties of SE TX this evening and then begin to weaken with the loss of heating and instability by late evening as they move south of I-10. The overall severe threat looks marginal with hail being the primary threat.

Another weak front crosses the area early Wednesday with a slight cool down. End of the week forecast continues to exhibit changes as models are not handling the arrival of a strong cold front over the weekend well. Yesterday models were driving this front off the coast on Friday, but have trended slower recently and have the front off the coast late Saturday. Temperatures will warm back into the 80’s by Friday ahead of this boundary. Flow just above the surface looks more SSW or SW which suggest capping may become entrained across the region which will help to limit rain chances. Not overly confident in the late week/weekend forecast at the moment with respect to any rain chances and just how much cold air will filter in behind the front and at what point.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#9 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Mar 20, 2013 1:53 pm

Some areas to the W and SW of Houston were hit with a severe hail storm early this morning. Damages are in the millions in the Columbus, Sealy, Brookshire, Katy and Sugar Land areas with The Brookwood Community, a live in and working community for the developmentally disabled estimating a minimum of $2M to their green houses and living quarters. I only had some claps of thunder and 0.16" of rain, which might get us up to 0.50" of rain so far this month. If the current trend for rainfall continues we are in MAJOR TROUBLE with us looking at a drought even worse than 2011!!
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#10 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Apr 02, 2013 7:50 pm

Latest from Jeff Lindner-looks like it could get rough here in SE TX tonight.

Severe Weather Update

Nasty cluster of thunderstorms has developed over C TX into the western sections of SE TX this afternoon. Severe weather and flash flooding is ongoing with this cluster.

Initial thunderstorms along I-10 between Columbus and Lulling are pushing E at 10mph while a bowing line is progressing ESE our of Austin attached to a meso low feature N of Austin. SE cluster of cells has been slow moving and with favorable low level Gulf inflow these storms have been excessive rainfall producers with hourly rates of 1-2.5 inches. Flash flooding in ongoing in portions of Bastrop and Fayette counties where storm totals are nearing 3-4 inches. Severe threat with these cells has been mainly large hail, but developing meso low feature and incoming bowing segment along I-35 suggest the threat will become a wind damage issue over the next few hours. Stalled low level boundary running from College Station to Sugar Land to Galveston should run the severe threat down and to the west of this boundary this evening as the upstream storms congeal into a bowing MCS across our western counties.

Lead supercells now moving into Colorado County will continue to produce severe hail and excessive flooding rainfall along/either side of I-10.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#11 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:25 pm

Storms to the West of Houston are strengthening. They are about 1 hour out from the West side of Houston and could be into the downtown area around 10 pm. Radar indicates that some of these storm, especially SW of Houston may have hail in them.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#12 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Apr 02, 2013 10:34 pm

Looks like the entire Houston metroplex is under the gun right now with severe thunderstorms and torrential rain! Definitely a needed soaking for our neighbors! We have dried out pretty well the past few weeks after a very wet start to the year but we are having our first thunderstorm of this event right now with 2"-4" expected.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#13 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:16 am

I ended up with 2.06" last night and one 6"-8" limb down across my driveway. Slept through the second round so it apparently wasn't as rough as the first round. More later today? Could be.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#14 Postby Jagno » Sun Apr 07, 2013 12:27 am

VB, glad the damage was minimal. My encounter was also downed vegetation. I was headed out early (still dark) and was driving about 50mph when I suddenly realized the road was blocked. I gave my anti lock breaks a good work out. There were 2 whole trees down across the entire road. Whew, that was not what I expected first thing in the morning. I didn't need a cardio workout after that.

Right now 3 out of every 4 people are suffering with terrible sinus and allergy related problems from the extremely high pollen count around here. Several have been hospitalized with respiratory problems. Everyone keeps saying that they've never ever seen it like this or had such terrible reactions as they've had this year. I spent Easter weekend in bed. I started feeling better and got out to attend my grandsons wee-ball game this morning and was back in bed by 1pm. I've never had problems with seasonal allergies or anything like this myself and frankly I hope I never feel like this again.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#15 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Apr 09, 2013 8:31 am

Jeff's take on the weather this week:
Humid and breezy morning in progress will become and warm and windy afternoon as the next storm system approaches the state from the west.

An upper level trough over the western US is creeping into the plains with surface low pressure deepening over KS with blizzard conditions developing NE from CO into the central and northern plains. A secondary surface low pressure will be developing over NE NM and the TX panhandle today and will help be response for an outbreak of severe weather over N TX into OK this afternoon and evening. Surface cold front will dive southward into TX late today and into SE TX on Wednesday. Defined and established warm sector will remain capped off by warm air in the mid levels for today and into early Wednesday. While some models are attempting to erode the capping, I think they may be overdoing the cooling in the mid levels. Even so, strong frontal push could be enough to overcome the warm layer and force surface parcels through the cap. Shear and instability will be favorable for strong to severe storms should the cap break. Think the best chances for active weather will be north of I-10 where the capping is weakest and jet stream dynamics strongest and this is where SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday. South of I-10, capping may hold back storms to just a thin line of showers as suggested by the TX TECH model. Will review the severe threat again early Wednesday, but at this time it looks like most of the action will be north and east of our region.

A secondary short wave rounding the base of the mean upper trough will move across the area Wednesday night. May see some additional development of showers and thunderstorms in the post frontal cold air mass late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

With decent moisture profiles in place widespread rains of .5 to 1 inch will be possible with isolated totals up to 2 inches especially north of I-10 and east of I-45. Lower rainfall amounts will be found around the Matagorda Bay area southward.

Another cold air mass will drop into the region behind the Wednesday cold front with lows falling back into the 40’s on Thursday and Friday mornings. Highs on Thursday may not reach 70 depending on when clouds clear. Slow warming trend starts Friday on into the weekend.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#16 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:47 am

Looks like our area is primed for another good soaking with severe weather potential tomorrow night into Thursday. I'm liking the trend of regular rains this spring as it should slow the onset of the miserable (to me) summer heat! It's actually been one of the nicest spring's in recent memory around here and many others have been saying that 8-) .
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#17 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:59 pm

Received about .75" at my house with this system which was less than forecast but a good soaking. I'm just so happy this weather system has cleared us now. We had nearly 3 days of winds gusting 30-40mph and nasty gray skies and humidity. Welcome back sunny blue skies and beautiful spring weather! :sun:
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#18 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Apr 11, 2013 10:44 pm

We managed 0.91" out of this last one. Many areas of Metro Houston also reported hail with the storms we had last night. Today turned into a beautiful sunny day.
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#19 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Apr 16, 2013 12:16 pm

Had over 2" of rain late Saturday night into Sunday AM with the warm front. Figured we wouldn't get more than about a half inch from this but the downplayed system always seem to be the bigger rain producers. Bracing for another severe threat/cold front Thursday then it's back to below normal temps through the weekend. Keep it up spring!
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Re: 2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

#20 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Apr 27, 2013 1:28 pm

Rains and tstorms beginning to build SW and W of Houston metro moving NE. Looks like Katy is getting pounded and Cypress is next. More off to the SW of that. Now starting to hear rumbles of thunder. Come on rain!!!
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