Texas Fall 2012

[Portastorm]

Let's continue the discussion ... lots to talk about, especially with the prospects of moisture from EPAC hurricane Miriam and numerous shortwaves rolling across the state this coming weekend.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Keeping my fingers crossed for rain. Its been really hot and dry up here in DFW and there are critical fire weather condition warnings out for us tomorrow.

[vbhoutex]

Here is what Jeff Lindner has to say about it:

Change on the Horizon‏

After over a week of nice fall weather, changes are on the way.

High pressure aloft over the region and ridging SW from the eastern US has kept a fairly dry and warm air mass in place for the past several days. However high pressure at the surface is moving eastward and low pressure is developing in the lee of the Rockies ahead of a slow moving upper level trough over the SW US. This is resulting in an increase in the southerly flow and slight increase in surface moisture. At the same time powerful Hurricane Miriam is moving NW off the western coast of MX under the influence of ridging over N MX and the developing trough over the SW US. High level moisture plume is clearly noted extending NE from the circulation of Miriam spreading ENE to NE into central MX and toward the TX border.

Parameters are slowly coming together for a period of very wet weather Fri-Sun as the upper trough over the SW US interacts with eastern Pacific hurricane Miriam. The overall setup will likely produce an excessive rainfall event for some location across the state of TX late this week/this weekend. Current upper level trough will slow with lift reaching TX by late this week, while both Gulf and mid/high level moisture increase across the area as Miriam sheds moisture and energy NE. PWS increase toward 1.5 inches on Thursday and 2.0 inches by late Friday and then into the 2.0-2.4 inch range on Saturday with soundings becoming increasingly saturated. Upper level jet dynamics come into play by Friday as a 250mb jet streak is progged over NC TX increasing large scale lift over C and SE TX. Expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop and move inland along the TX coast with more organized rainfall over C and N TX on Friday. With moisture levels running very high expect areas of very heavy rainfall.

Upper trough and moisture plume from Miriam sag eastward over the weekend with SE TX coming increasingly under the influence of both the lifting by the trough aloft and high level moisture/energy from the tropical system. Expect more widespread and organized rainfall potential Saturday into Sunday. With moisture levels in the “excessive” range heavy rainfall is likely, but at this time there is no well defined surface boundary to focus/anchor convection at least not at the present time. One would think that with upstream convection some sort of outflow boundary could/would be present on the following days and this potential will need to be watched.

Since we are still over 48 hours from the onset of any event, there is plenty of time to fine tune and nail down the location that looks most favorable for heavy rainfall. Only recently have model guidance come into decent agreement on the phasing of the moisture of Miriam and the upper level trough so some additional changes are likely.

[Ntxw]

Latest models suggest an upper level low will cut off from the flow in the lower Miss Valley and retrograde. How this feature behaves will likely effect weather for the eastern half of the state starting next week (in additional to the weekend rain). If it decides to move further west, a prolonged cool/cloudy/damp start to the week could be in store for east and southeast Texas into Louisiana.

[South Texas Storms]

Here is my latest weather article! Another rain event is likely this weekend (with some extra moisture courtesy of a Hurricane in the eastern Pacific Ocean)!
http://www.examiner.com/article/another ... b_articles

[weatherdude1108]

Here is Bob Rose's forecast (of LCRA). I have a Homecoming game to go to on Friday night in San Antonio. Good chance to get the cobwebs and dust off of the poncho!

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[Portastorm]

The QPF forecast out of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) continues to ramp up for Texas. Values from 1-4 inches look likely now with a solid 1-2 inches in south central Texas. Seen some parallels in the NWSFO AFDs to the event on Sept. 13-14. That would be great!



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[weatherdude1108]

The QPF forecast out of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) continues to ramp up for Texas. Values from 1-4 inches look likely now with a solid 1-2 inches in south central Texas. Seen some parallels in the NWSFO AFDs to the event on Sept. 13-14. That would be great!

http://imageshack.us/a/img715/3455/p120i12.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

That covers a large area of West and Central Texas who badly need it. They have been stuck on the shorter end of the moisture stick. That is beautiful! The early morning Austin/San Antonio discussion is nice too.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012/

DISCUSSION...
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE
EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX LATE
THIS WEEK.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY FOR THURSDAY.

LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM
MIRIAM BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TX...WITH A FEW DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE MOIST SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10. WEAK STABILITY
ALOFT STILL OVER THE AREA SHOULD STILL MEAN THAT RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN IS LIKELY IN THIS PERIOD OVER
NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH
AND A NW FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ALOFT.

MIRIAM...RECENTLY DOWNGRADED FROM A HURRICANE...IS SLOWLY BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS A
WEAK AND BROAD ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE U.S. MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER MIRIAM WILL ENHANCE THE
SPREAD OF MOISTURE FROM MIRIAM TOWARD TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. INITIAL HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
THE FOCUS SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX
SATURDAY. A CONSENSUS OF MODELS WERE USED AS THE GFS SHOWS HIGHEST
EMPHASIS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MESOSCALE TENDENCIES IN SOUTH
TX WITH SUCH SYSTEMS SUGGEST THAT A MORE BROAD COVERAGE OF RAIN
SUCH AS SUGGESTED IN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS IS MORE
PRACTICAL. THUS A WEATHER EVENT SIMILAR TO THE SEPT 13-14 HEAVY
RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RAINS
FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE PAST EVENT...SINCE
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WAS BETTER TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2-2.5 INCHES...WILL WORD HEAVY RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AND EXPECT 1-2 INCH AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER EASTERN COUNTIES.
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND COVERAGE MAKE IT TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
FLOOD POTENTIAL ASSESSMENTS. MOST OF THE MODEL DATA SHOWS MINIMAL
AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG STORMS...SO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WHILE INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE WRN US PROMOTES
STABILITY IN A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

[weather_novice]

This rain is bad news! I have a 100mile bicycle race on Sat at 8am! Does anyone here think the main event will be Friday night and the rain will be gone by Saturday morning?

[Portastorm]

This rain is bad news! I have a 100mile bicycle race on Sat at 8am! Does anyone here think the main event will be Friday night and the rain will be gone by Saturday morning?

I know you were joking about the first five words of your post, right?! Right??!!

Seriously, if you're in the San Antonio area I doubt the rain will be gone by Saturday morning. Maybe Saturday evening.

[weatherdude1108]

This rain is bad news! I have a 100mile bicycle race on Sat at 8am! Does anyone here think the main event will be Friday night and the rain will be gone by Saturday morning?

I know you were joking about the first five words of your post, right?! Right??!!

Seriously, if you're in the San Antonio area I doubt the rain will be gone by Saturday morning. Maybe Saturday evening.

I'm thinking (at least hoping) the first five words he meant were "bad news" for his bike race, not the ecology/hydrology.

I have a homecoming football game to attend on Friday at 7:30pm in San Antonio. Got my poncho ready and banking on a frog choker. Only thing I'm concerned about is the drive down on Friday afternoon. But I don't mind getting wet, ESPECIALLY in a drought.

[Terri]

Looks like we may be in for a moderate rain event. I really hate seeing the ground out in my pastures with cracks.... I am ready! The only drawback.... Labs coming in with muddy feet... But I have a mop and pail for that!

[ndale]

Looks like we may be in for a moderate rain event. I really hate seeing the ground out in my pastures with cracks.... I am ready! The only drawback.... Labs coming in with muddy feet... But I have a mop and pail for that!

It may be changing from moderate to heavy, this is the latest update from the Austin/San Antonio weather office.

FFA POSTED FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE 06Z NAM/GFS
MODEL RUNS CONFIRMED A TREND THAT INDICATES UPSTREAM ENERGY
HOLDING UP THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES PAST
00Z SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA.
THUS HAVE RUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE
BEGINNING OF THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF TODAY...SO HAVE BEGUN THE FLOOD
THREAT FOR THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AT 6 PM. EVEN SO...A FEW
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY...BEFORE THE ENHANCED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ARRIVES.

[Portastorm]

Folks should notice that the precip estimates for south central Texas have continually ramped up in the last 48 hours. We're now looking at areawide event totals of 2-4 inches with as much as 8 inches in places, if not more. The morning forecast discussion out of EWX also mentioned "historic maxima" regarding the precipitable water values (PWATs), meaning that the atmosphere is basically a totally saturated sponge at the moment.

This could be turning from a "great, bring the rain" event to a "hey, you can stop now" rain event! Stay tuned everyone and be safe!!

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, I have to drive to San Antonio this afternoon, and come back tomorrow morning. I'm more concerned about the drive back tomorrow morning. I'd much rather be viewing it from a house than a car. I'll let you know what I find out and see, while being careful of course.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I have to drive to San Antonio this afternoon, and come back tomorrow morning. I'm more concerned about the drive back tomorrow morning. I'd much rather be viewing it from a house than a car. I'll let you know what I find out and see, while being careful of course.

I'm right there with you, weatherdude. I'm driving to San Marcos this evening for a high school football game and then back to Austin. The little jaunt should be "entertaining" if the heavy rain is upon us by then. Everyone, stay safe!

[Rgv20]

Here is Corpus take on this Rain Event coming up..

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
649 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

TXZ229>234-239>247-282100-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
649 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...

RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY...VICTORIA
CROSSROADS...AND COASTAL BEND ARE THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED FLOODING AND PONDING OF
WATER MAY OCCUR IN LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CORPUSCHRISTI FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

[vbhoutex]

Looking similar for SE TX also.

FXUS64 KHGX 281516
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING WILL WORK THEIR WAY INLAND TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING...SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SLOWER
MOVING ACTIVITY. GREATER RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COMES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.
VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (>2 INCHES) COUPLED WITH DECENT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO HELP
TO PRODUCE EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS EASILY REACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT! WITH AREA GROUNDS POSSIBLY BECOMING WET AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE ISSUED WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S PACKAGE. EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
AND GREATEST FLASH FLOOD RISK ENDS UP IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT DUE
TO DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT LARGE PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT.

HERE ARE SOME AREA RECORD RAINFALL TOTALS (AND YEAR SET) FOR THIS WEEKEND.

SATURDAY (9/29) SUNDAY (9/30)

CLL - 1.84" (1921) 1.85" (1927)
IAH - 2.51" (1985) 2.55" (1913)
HOU - 1.70" (1985) 1.15" (1934)
GLS - 2.12" (1921) 4.33" (1945)

[Ntxw]

If we can avoid the flooding issues by using common sense, this is pretty much the triple crown of rain the state needs. Multiple Epac systems and moisture fetch from the tropical Pacific, coastal low feeding up from the coast, and slow moving frontal boundary. Just about everyone will see rain and the most in areas where lakes need it. None of that 5 inches in one area and Lake Travis rises 0! Widespread upstream and downstream, blessing.

[cycloneye]

Flood Watch from Saturday morning thru Sunday morning

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>23 8-301100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0006.120929T1100Z-120930T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO -FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-M ADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWE LL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD... HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON.. .WILLIS...
WINNIE
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MA DISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EASILY REACHING AT LEAST 2 TO 4
INCHES. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
IF ANY FLOODING IS OBSERVED...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH THE
WATER. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN!

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$