2012 SE TX/SW LA Weather:Cold/cool week.

[vbhoutex]

Starting this since we are over a month into 2012.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner: Heavy rainfall and flooding threat

Flash Flood Watch extended until noon Saturday.

Significant rainfall event likely tonight-Saturday for much of SE TX with flooding possible.

Discussion:

Thus far the models have not handled the overnight short wave very well with almost no rainfall at all along the TX coast. Short wave was modeled too far southward and has ejected out of MX toward NC TX with widespread mainly light to moderate rainfall. Surface frontal boundary currently extends from near South Padre Island to off the coast of Matagorda Bay and then ENE toward southern Louisiana. Air mass over the western Gulf shows dewpoints in the 66-72 degree range with PWS of 1.5-1.6 inches. Thus far the moisture transport northward has been rather unimpressive as PWS over SE TX have only increased to just over 1.0 inch.

This afternoon:

Powerful upper level trough/storm digging SE into northern MX will begin to spread strong upper level lift across much of TX from SW to NE. At the surface, low pressure will develop on the offshore frontal boundary and begin the NE track up the coast. Latest model runs are more northward with this low and this raises the risk of the downstream warm front over the NW Gulf moving further inland. Expect showers to start to develop and expand northward from late morning through the afternoon hours as upglide of moisture over the frontal slope increases

Tonight-midday Saturday:

Widespread heavy rainfall likely with flooding.

By early this evening the surface low along the southern TX coast will be moving NE up the coast and then likely inland around Matagorda Bay after midnight. Warm front will surge northward toward the coast and likely inland to US 59 overnight. Strong lift both at the surface from the warm front and surface low combined with a splitting jet stream structure aloft as the upper trough moves into SW TX points to rapid development of bands of intense thunderstorms. While the meso models are more keen on a couple of bands of excessive rainfall, the global models show more of a larger area of heavy rain…neither is likely correct nor wrong with this kind of set up. Expect numerous thunderstorms to rapidly develop from the coastal bend into SE TX starting late this evening and then continuing overnight into Saturday morning. Feel the warm front will move inland due to the surface low being displaced slightly further north. This really places the counties along US 59 under the gun for the greatest rainfall and strongest storms.

Rainfall/Flooding:

Moisture levels are progged to reach 200% above normal and a look upstream over the western Gulf does show such values out there. Expect the formation of a 30-40kt low level jet by afternoon today to help advect the western Gulf moisture into place by this evening. Factors will be in place tonight into Saturday for a flash flood setup across the region. Air mass will likely become almost tropical like near and south of the warm front overnight with soundings showing a nearly saturated air column…leading to efficient rainfall production in thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be capable of some very intense short term rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour which can get locations in to trouble very quickly. With a slow moving warm front in the region, this will help to focus and possibly train these high rainfall rate thunderstorms along a boundary greatly increasing the flash flood threat near the warm front. Current thinking is that the warm front will move inland along a line from Victoria to Wharton to Katy to Cleveland (near of just north of the US 59 corridor). Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is likely with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches possible. Bands of training thunderstorms will quickly deliver excessive rainfall in a very short period of time overwhelming primary drainage systems. Significant street flooding is likely along with rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers due to the already saturated grounds in place.

Severe Threat:

With the warm front looking more likely to move inland, this does increase the severe weather threat along and south of this boundary and then ahead of the cold front as the surface low moves across the area. While shear is favorable, instability is generally lacking, but there is some lurking out over the western Gulf. Meso models have been hinting at bowing line segments near the cold front across the coastal areas Saturday morning and also a fair amount of development ahead of the main line which could pose a weak tornado threat given the favorable shear profiles that will be in place. SPC does not have SE TX in a slight risk (see graphic below). Feel an upgrade to a slight risk for areas south of US 59 may be needed today. Main severe threat appears to be wind damage and large hail with an isolated tornado threat.

Midday Saturday-Saturday night:

Surface low moves into Louisiana with thunderstorms exiting to the east. Main upper trough will move over our northern counties and may produce a period of wrap around rainfall into late Saturday afternoon or evening north of I-10. Clearing and cooler Sunday as surface high moves into the area behind the cold front.

Extended:

Another storm system approaches the area Monday-Tuesday, but moisture looks limited so likely only a few showers. Another more potent looking system may be on tap for the middle to end of next week as this highly active pattern continues.

[Houstonia]

Appears the threat is lowering?

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
955 am CST Friday Feb 17 2012

Update...
see morning update.

Discussion...
things not going to plan this morning. Last night's shortwave went well
north of the region taking most of the rain well north of the region.
850 mb moisture is still lacking and water vapor imagery does not
show any S/wv's moving toward the region. Other than weak warm air
advection...can't really find any other lifting mechanism so have
decided to lower probability of precipitation and delay the Flood Watch to 00z. The 12z
nam12 is shifting most of the precipitation north of the region overnight
and Saturday. After last nights forecast...confidence is somewhat
lacking. New zones out by 1030 am.

[southerngale]

Radar is starting to light up across Texas, potentially setting the stage for a heavy rainfall event later tonight into tomorrow. It's not needed here anymore as it's already very saturated, as I'm sure is the case across much of the area, but Mother Nature didn't ask us now, did she?

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=USTX1200

http://www.corad.org/texas_radar.htm

Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
942 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...FLOODING RAINS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ENTER WEST TEXAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND COUPLED WITH THE STRONG
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES.

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
180000-
/O.CON.KLCH.FA.A.0001.120218T0600Z-120219T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...
GRAND CHENIER...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
942 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...
BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...
JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON AND
WEST CAMERON. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...JEFFERSON...
NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
SOUTHERN NEWTON AND TYLER.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* SOILS THAT ARE SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL
EVENTS...PLUS ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS TODAY...WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

[CajunMama]

I don't think the storms are going to weaken before hitting Lafayette this time. Lots of small individual storms moving in front the gom. So much for the day parades today. I'm glad i rode last Saturday!!!!!

[southerngale]

I don't want to be awake this early, but the storms woke me up. I'm going to try to go back to sleep for a while.

Drought? What drought?

Flood Advisory

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

TXC199-457-181415-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.Y.0021.120218T1224Z-120218T1415Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARDIN TX-TYLER TX-
624 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WILDWOOD...THICKET...SILSBEE...
SARATOGA...LUMBERTON...KOUNTZE...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 AM CST

* AT 621 AM CST RADAR AND GAUGE REPORTS INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN HARDIN COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER AND CAUSE SMALL STREAMS TO RISE
QUICKLY TO NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. THE UPPER REACHES OF PINE ISLAND
BAYOU AND LITTLE PINE ISLAND BAYOU AS WELL AS CYPRESS CREEK WILL
RISE RAPIDLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3050 9455 3054 9455 3056 9411 3029 9411
3028 9412 3028 9411 3016 9411 3019 9420
3017 9423 3017 9427 3015 9429 3013 9458
3050 9472

$$

BRAZZELL









Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...FLOODING RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SURGE DEEP MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACT AS A FOCUS. STRONG DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT THE
MOISTURE AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1.5 TO 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AS SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AT MANY LOCATIONS.

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
190000-
/O.CON.KLCH.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120219T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...
GRAND CHENIER...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
653 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...
BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...
JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON AND
WEST CAMERON. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...JEFFERSON...
NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
SOUTHERN NEWTON AND TYLER.

* UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING

* 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 6 PM.

* SOILS THAT ARE SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED FROM RECENT
RAINFALL EVENTS...PLUS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
POORLY DRAINED LOCATIONS AND RAPID RUN OFF AND MAY THREATEN
MOTORIST AND STRUCTURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$








Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

LAZ030-041-073-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-181330-
HARDIN TX-NORTHERN JASPER TX-NORTHERN NEWTON TX-TYLER TX-JEFFERSON TX-
BEAUREGARD LA-CALCASIEU LA-ORANGE TX-SOUTHERN JASPER TX-
SOUTHERN NEWTON TX-WEST CAMERON LA-
643 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...
TYLER...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU AND CAMERON PARISHES UNTIL 730 AM CST...

AT 641 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CANEY HEAD
TO 2 MILES EAST OF LUMBERTON TO 13 MILES WEST OF HAMSHIRE...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

AT 641 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF SILSBEE TO 13
MILES WEST OF HAMSHIRE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WEISS BLUFF...LAKEVIEW AND EVADALE BY 650 AM...
FANNETT...BUNA AND BEAUMONT BY 655 AM...
ROSE CITY...PINE FOREST...GIST AND BUNA BY 700 AM...

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3026 9426 3054 9430 3063 9342 3035 9338
2986 9378 2984 9380 2997 9377 2998 9378
2996 9385 2987 9391 2983 9391 2984 9393
2978 9436 2988 9436 2989 9445 3002 9445

$$









Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
544 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

GMZ435-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262-191200-
VERMILION BAY-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-
EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
544 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS: THE BIGGEST THREATS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FLOODING: DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED TODAY FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED LOCATIONS MAY OCCUR. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM FOR ALL OF THE AREA. FLOODING
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS IS ALREADY ONGOING AND MAY INCREASE
DOWNSTREAM FROM AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHORT LIVED AND ISOLATED
TORNADO TODAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT TO OPELOUSAS LINE.

HAIL: THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY
PRODUCE HAIL TO AROUND THE SIZE OF QUARTERS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FLOODING ALONG AREA RIVERS THAT ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WILL
BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS HAS HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS
TODAY FLOWS TO THE GULF. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNING FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

$$



Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 27
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-239-245-291-321-339-361-407-481-
181500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0027.120218T1050Z-120218T1500Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND
GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS
JACKSON JEFFERSON LIBERTY
MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY ORANGE
SAN JACINTO WHARTON

[southerngale]

And it appears that I slept through a Severe Thunderstorm Warning a little while ago. My weather alert is going off again. And there's still a lot more rain coming... stay safe out there, guys.

210
WGUS54 KLCH 181337
FFWLCH
TXC245-181630-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0008.120218T1337Z-120218T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
737 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CST

* AT 734 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST JEFFERSON
COUNTY INCLUDING THE PORT ARTHUR AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF BETWEEN 4
AND 5 INCHES PER HOUR HAV BEEN INDICATED BY RADAR AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY INCLUDING PORT ARTHUR

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CENTRAL GARDENS...GROVES...NEDERLAND...PORT ARTHUR...PORT NECHES...
PORT ACRES AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS REGIONAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

[CajunMama]

As hurricane girl used to say, "Holy Crap " Lawdy this storm actually had me scared. Ferocious winds, hail, thunder, lightning. I wanted to be my dog so I could snuggle and hide like he did!

[vbhoutex]

Appears the threat is lowering?

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
955 am CST Friday Feb 17 2012

Update...
see morning update.

Discussion...
things not going to plan this morning. Last night's shortwave went well
north of the region taking most of the rain well north of the region.
850 mb moisture is still lacking and water vapor imagery does not
show any S/wv's moving toward the region. Other than weak warm air
advection...can't really find any other lifting mechanism so have
decided to lower probability of precipitation and delay the Flood Watch to 00z. The 12z
nam12 is shifting most of the precipitation north of the region overnight
and Saturday. After last nights forecast...confidence is somewhat
lacking. New zones out by 1030 am.

Mother Nature fooled that shift!!! Quite a nasty round of storms all across the Houston metro this morning. Seems to have finally ended. I got 2.28" at my house this am.

[cycloneye]

CM,watch over there for possible tornadoes this afternoon. New Orleans is included within the 10% probability.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Ptarmigan]

As hurricane girl used to say, "Holy Crap " Lawdy this storm actually had me scared. Ferocious winds, hail, thunder, lightning. I wanted to be my dog so I could snuggle and hide like he did!

Those storms were quite strong.

[CajunMama]

Thanks ceye but the storms hit us this morning so we were ok this afternoon. There were rumors of funnel clouds and one not too far from me this morning. These 2 reports were probably right near me. I was in a bedroom in the house that faces NE and I looked out the window and I couldn't see more than 15 feet. THAT was quite spooky.

KATC ESTIMATED 75 MPH WIND GUST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF LAFAYETTE WITH THE BOW ECHO. (LCH)

PUBLIC REPORTED WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ALONG AMBASSADOR CAFFREY BOULEVARD (LCH)

[Stephanie]

That must've been spooky Cajun! I hope all of these storms aren't wrecking Mardi Gras celebrations too much.

[CajunMama]

Some have been cancelled and some have been rescheduled and some are piggybacking on other small town parades. It's a logistics nightmare to reschedule a mardi gras parade mainly because of security. You only have X amount of law enforcement officers to go around. Also many of the floats are rented out and many of the small town parades use the same floats.

Again, i can't believe the fury of todays weather. Spots of damage around but there were no injuries that i know of.

[Jagno]

I was driving in the middle of this storm to get to our restaurant. I was doing 20mph and still barely had any visibility. I drive a Toyota 4-Runner and the winds were shaking this vehicle something fierce. It was 8am but as dark outside as midnight. Did I mention, I hate to drive in the rain. Normally I would have stayed home, but this is our grand opening week.

What really suprised me is people were actually in their vehicles lining up along the parade route to get a good spot. I'm sorry but no amount of trinkets are worth bringing children out in this kind of storm. Proves once again that you just can't fix stupid. The parades were cancelled but there were still plenty of indoor events to keep the Mardi Gras spirit going.

It was so unusual how cold it became with the rain then once the storm passed us by it was warmer this evening. Now it's cooling down again. This weather is keeping everyone sick.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Late Week Rainfall Event‏

Transition begins today toward a more moist pattern as cloud cover is increasing on southerly winds this morning.

While guidance remains at odds on how to handle the upcoming event for late this week into this weekend, there is slightly better agreement this morning. Surface low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies today will help instigate increasing southerly winds and a breezy to windy afternoon is in store for the area as south winds gust to 25mph or greater. Low level jet begins to ramp up tonight leading to a rapid increase in low level moisture across the area. Moisture stream off the western Gulf will be capped off between 850 and 700mb, but will deepen enough on Wednesday to likely start to see showers stream inland off the Gulf. Feel the TX Tech 3km WRF model is likely getting to overall pattern correct, but is a little widespread on the amount of rainfall on Wednesday. Think that 30-40% coverage will do with showers increasing toward the afternoon hours.

Large upper level storm system will dig southward down the interior of the Rockies and then stall out over AZ/NM late this week into this weekend. A cold front will drop southward down the plains and into TX Thursday and then greatly slow and possibly stall somewhere over SC to SE TX on Friday. Very favorable inflow of a very moist air mass off the Gulf and Pacific will lead to a saturated air mass by late Thursday. As has been so common for the start of 2012 PW values rise to near +2 SD (1.55 inches) for early March and the threat for repeat cell training along a stalling surface front is really raising the red flags for some sort of heavy rainfall/flash flood event from the period of Friday-early Sunday. Strong surface to 850mb moisture advection off the Gulf will help feed convection. With the upper level low stalled out to our west for 36-48 hours (Thursday-late Saturday) expect disturbances to rotate around the SE side of this feature about every 6-12 hours and this will help to ignite rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With enough breaks between rounds the flooding threat could be minimized however impressive 250mb divergence will position itself near/just WNW of the region and a surface trough is progged by the models to develop from near Matagorda Bay northward to near Dallas. The surface trough will align close to the surface to 850mb inflow off the western Gulf and is located on the favorable portion of the jet aloft. This all points to a sustained heavy rainfall event for multiple periods of time. Still much uncertainty with the timing of the whole event and how quickly the upper low ejects across TX over the weekend (GFS is quick while the ECMWF/CMC hold the thing back until late Saturday). General consensus this morning is to hold the system back to our west and not eject it across until the middle of the weekend following the ECMWF/CMC guidance.

Surface front should stall out Friday across the region with showers/thunderstorms moving SSW to NNE across the area. Front may make it toward the coast by early Saturday with the help of convective outflows along the boundary. Axis of continued heavy rainfall appears to align from roughly the Columbus area to College Station to Dallas. Current thinking is that this is the area where some decent training and bigger rainfall totals could be, but we are still talking over 48 hours out from the event and much can/will change. Will go with widespread rainfall totals from late Wed-early Sunday of 2-3 inches across the entire area with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches. Would not be surprised to see a few 6-8 inch totals given the excessive amounts of moisture that will be in place especially near and just east of where the surface trough/cool front stall out. The overall setup is a fairly common eastern TX heavy rainfall event pattern, but as usual the devil is in the details of where narrow bands of heavy training rainfall will develop and who get clobbered with some really big rainfall amounts. Current thinking is that N/NE TX into NW LA and AR will be the locations under the greatest threat. Or course the water that falls to our north will need to come southward, so there is some concern for some big rises on area rivers with the heavy rainfall axis north/NW of our region.

Severe threat looks overall minimal although a few strong storms will be possible Thursday afternoon near the frontal boundary and then continuing into Thursday night and Friday. Could also see a round of strong storms late Saturday/early Sunday with the ejection of the main upper level.

[txwxpirate]

US National Weather Service Houston-Galveston Texas


A wet end of the week is coming thanks to a slow moving upper level low pressure system and a cold front that will likely be slowing as it moves into the region late Thursday. This will set the stage for heavy rainfall across the region beginning Thursday and continuing through Sunday. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will blanket the region by Sunday with some areas receiving as much as 3-6 inches. A flood watch may be issued as confidence in the forecast rainfall amounts increases on Thursday or Friday. Stay tuned. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx

[Jagno]

Today is the very first time in ages that I've slept until 8:00. The metal roof, the steady rain and rumbling thunder made the perfect sleeping weather.

I did immediately spring into action worried about flooding since we get it pretty bad out here and thanks to the annoying and messy construction they've been doing for months on our roads and drainage there is not a drop of standing water on our road or backed up into our yards this time. Now this puts a whole new perspective on all the delays and dust they've been creating for us. I'll never complain about their progress again. LOL

Okay, so now it's off to buy as much ant and mosquito poison as I can because we are going to need it.

Hope everyone can see the bright side in all this liquid sunshine this weekend. Be careful and have a great day!

[vbhoutex]

I posted this in the Winter Weather forum too. What is one to do?
What a difference one day makes!!! Yesterday I was in shorts and tshirts with light rain and 78F. Today I'm in jeans and long sleeves with rain and 48F!! Can't even figure out which thread I should be posting in, this one or the non-winter thread

[PTrackerLA]

Got a little over an inch of rain this morning and it's been cloudy, breezy and in the lower 50s much of the day. We're maintaining our above average lead on yearly rainfall since Jan 1 fairly well. Could March 2012 be our 3rd month in a row of above normal rainfall? That probably hasn't happened in at least two years.