Severe weather for deep south and Snow for NC
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wrkh99
Severe weather for deep south and Snow for NC
Monday into tuesday severe weather is likely in the deep south with heavy snow thursday night friday into parts of NC. Time for some sleep
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Anonymous
Severe weather should be limited due to low moisture return from the Gulf.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_dewp.gif
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_dewp.gif
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Stormsfury
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Good evening, this is my first post on Storm2K.
There still will be a CAD event for the Southeast, but not quite enough cold air to produce snows except the NC Mountains, and maybe some initial snows to start. No AFD's this afternoon from Southeast outline any freezing rain which puzzles me at this point. This is a Miller B Type Low scenario. Initial develop of a low in the Western Gulf, will quickly develop a secondary low off the Carolina Coast closer to the thermaline of the Gulf Stream. TD's are running as low as -6 at Rutherfordton to 0 degrees F at Greer, SC to 18 dewpoint F at Charleston. Columbia, SC has an SPS for snow/rain to rain but very cold. Greenville-Spartanburg (GSP) has outlined snow NC mountains, snow/mix north of I-85, mix to rain south of I-85. The temperatures will not get out of the 30's along the surface. This is a CAD event, however, not a real wintery one, but CAD nonetheless - an initial Gulf low transfers its energy very quickly off the Carolinas. No southerly wind component at all in the Carolinas, procludes that the NNE winds will continue throughout the entire event, thus CAD. - looks similar to Dec. 5th, but the arctic air is not as firmly established as the aforementioned storm.
Also concerns for Western Carolinas, and the fact that freezing rain isn't mentioned in the AFD's today - which I think is more possible with an insitu wedge.
Today's placement of the 500mb zonal trough and a closed 500mb low off the California Coast at 48hrs by the ETA is a new development. The 18z ETA actually has multiple low centers at 36hr. One off of Cape Hatteras, and a second ENE of Jacksonville, Fl. The low moves NNE towards the Cape area at 48hr, still moving quick.
I still have my doubt about the low moving as close to the coast as the ETA shows because I believe the low will develop 100 miles further east, again closer to the thermaline of the Gulf Stream.
I like the GFS placement of the Carolina coast low development, but I'm blending the GFS/ETA position to an average about 40/68 low off of Cape Cod at 48 hours which will give Central and Southern NJ a good shot at 4"-8" snows. This is a quick hitter with no 50/50 low, NAO positive, and a screaming SBJ.
There still will be a CAD event for the Southeast, but not quite enough cold air to produce snows except the NC Mountains, and maybe some initial snows to start. No AFD's this afternoon from Southeast outline any freezing rain which puzzles me at this point. This is a Miller B Type Low scenario. Initial develop of a low in the Western Gulf, will quickly develop a secondary low off the Carolina Coast closer to the thermaline of the Gulf Stream. TD's are running as low as -6 at Rutherfordton to 0 degrees F at Greer, SC to 18 dewpoint F at Charleston. Columbia, SC has an SPS for snow/rain to rain but very cold. Greenville-Spartanburg (GSP) has outlined snow NC mountains, snow/mix north of I-85, mix to rain south of I-85. The temperatures will not get out of the 30's along the surface. This is a CAD event, however, not a real wintery one, but CAD nonetheless - an initial Gulf low transfers its energy very quickly off the Carolinas. No southerly wind component at all in the Carolinas, procludes that the NNE winds will continue throughout the entire event, thus CAD. - looks similar to Dec. 5th, but the arctic air is not as firmly established as the aforementioned storm.
Also concerns for Western Carolinas, and the fact that freezing rain isn't mentioned in the AFD's today - which I think is more possible with an insitu wedge.
Today's placement of the 500mb zonal trough and a closed 500mb low off the California Coast at 48hrs by the ETA is a new development. The 18z ETA actually has multiple low centers at 36hr. One off of Cape Hatteras, and a second ENE of Jacksonville, Fl. The low moves NNE towards the Cape area at 48hr, still moving quick.
I still have my doubt about the low moving as close to the coast as the ETA shows because I believe the low will develop 100 miles further east, again closer to the thermaline of the Gulf Stream.
I like the GFS placement of the Carolina coast low development, but I'm blending the GFS/ETA position to an average about 40/68 low off of Cape Cod at 48 hours which will give Central and Southern NJ a good shot at 4"-8" snows. This is a quick hitter with no 50/50 low, NAO positive, and a screaming SBJ.
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mf_dolphin
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
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- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
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Thank you for making me feel quite welcome here! 48 hrs ago, it looks as if Coastal South Carolina, Coastal North Carolina were going to deal with a frozen event, however, the trend north burned us ... again.
The January 23rd, 2003 event did bring snow to Charleston, however, only a dusting to .5". My friends in North Carolina got quite an event that day.
The January 23rd, 2003 event did bring snow to Charleston, however, only a dusting to .5". My friends in North Carolina got quite an event that day.
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WidreMann
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Rainband
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Stormsfury
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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Rainband
