Tell me what you think of my Weather Experiment Numbers.

[MonsoonDude]

This is an Experimental Project for these areas only. This is for today, August 15th 2003. The
descriptions show the percent of severe potential. 100% being the most it can get, 0% being the least.
at the bottom of each column, it shows a line of numbers with percents. some have a plus sign , and
some have a negative sign. the plus signs show that that severe ingredient MUST BE THERE. at the end
I add up every positive percent, and come up with a percentage. i think take that percentage and
divide it by the most possible percentage of all 6 positve ingredients. I then get the number of
possible severe weather for the day for that area.
========================================================================================================
Northeastern Arizona/New Mexico Border. 5pm August 15th, 2003

The air will be Semi Juicy today. 50% YES

The temperature will be 72 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be fairly unstable. 40% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 30 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 60 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

OUTLOOK for Northeastern Arizona/New Mexico Border storms today.

THE POSITIVES MEAN THAT FACTOR MUST BE THERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEGATIVE, NOT NEED BUT HELPS

60% YES+
40% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+

300% all added up. 50% Severe Potential



Could see much of the same thing as yesterday afternoon, but not as bad.
Severe Weather is in slight risk possible.
========================================================================================================
TUCSON AREA SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL

The air will be Semi Juicy today. 50% YES

The temperature will be 82 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be very unstable. 60% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 33 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 60 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

OUTLOOK for Tucson Area storms today.

50% YES+
60% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+

310% all added up. 52% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================
PHOENIX AREA STORM POTENTIAL

The air will be Juicy today. 75% YES

The temperature will be 87 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be very unstable. 60% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 34 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 60 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

OUTLOOK for Phoenix Area storms today.

75% YES+
60% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+

335% all added up. 56% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================
Coachella Valley, Southern California.

The air will be Juicy today. 75% YES

The temperature will be 101 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be incredibly unstable. 100% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 38 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 30 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

COACHELLA VALLEY STORM POTENTiAL

75% YES+
100% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+

375% all added up. and 62% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================

So out of these areas, the Coachella Valley storms will most likely be the most severe with 62%
potential that the storms will become Severe.

Kevin Martin

[MonsoonDude]

This is an Experimental Project for these areas only. This is for today, August 16th 2003. The
descriptions show the percent of severe potential. 100% being the most it can get, 0% being the least.
at the bottom of each column, it shows a line of numbers with percents. some have a plus sign , and
some have a negative sign. the plus signs show that that severe ingredient MUST BE THERE. at the end
I add up every positive percent, and come up with a percentage. i think take that percentage and
divide it by the most possible percentage of all 6 positve ingredients. I then get the number of
possible severe weather for the day for that area.
========================================================================================================
Eastern Arizona/New Mexico Border.

The air will be Semi Juicy today. 50% YES

The temperature will be 72 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be fairly unstable. 40% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 21 knots , a Marginal Low Level Jet is in place. 40% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 30 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

OUTLOOK for Northeastern Arizona/New Mexico Border storms today.

THE POSITIVES MEAN THAT FACTOR MUST BE THERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEGATIVE, NOT NEED BUT HELPS

50% YES+
40% YES+
40% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+

270% all added up. 45% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================
TUCSON AREA SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL

The air will be Semi Juicy today. 50% YES

The temperature will be 90 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be Extremly unstable. 80% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 31 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 60 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

OUTLOOK for Tucson Area storms today.

50% YES+
80% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+

330% all added up. 55% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================
PHOENIX AREA STORM POTENTIAL

The air will be Juicy today. 75% YES

The temperature will be 94 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be extremly unstable. 80% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 32 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 81 knots, for Marginal Divergence. 40% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

OUTLOOK for Phoenix Area storms today.

75% YES+
80% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
40% YES+
20% YES+

375% all added up. 63% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================
Coachella Valley, Southern California.

The air will be Juicy today. 75% YES

The temperature will be 95 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be extremly unstable. 80% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 40 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 20 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

COACHELLA VALLEY STORM POTENTiAL

75% YES+
80% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+

355% all added up. and 59% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================

So out of these areas, the Phoenix storms will most likely be the most severe with 63%
potential that the storms will become Severe.

Kevin Martin

[Guest]

I for one kinda like them..................Kinda explains how the whole atmosphere is behaving and as well points out what is needed for severe storms..........................Alot of good info there......................How about CAP info?????????

[MonsoonDude]

i will have that out tomorrow, along with helicity.

Thanks for your help on the next needed ingredients to add

Kevin