

Despite rains, precipitation still below par
By: Larisa Bogardus , The Independent 08/11/2003
APACHE-SITGREAVES NATIONAL FORESTS - Despite high humidity levels, it's been a dry summer in the White Mountains.
Regionally, the precicipation average is about 83 percent of the long term average for Aug. 1, Forest Service hydrologist Jim Probst wrote in his latest drought update.
"Precipitation across the Forests during the summer months has been consistently below average," he reported.
Summer monsoon rains did not begin until about July 18, about 10 days later than normal. As a result, July precipitation is well below average.
Probst uses provisional data from gauges operated by the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resource Conservation Service and Bureau of Reclamation to draw his conclusions each month.
Since July 1, the eight SNOTEL stations on the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests have recorded an average of only 1.46 inches of precipitation, about 42 percent of the long term average for the month.
Last July an average of 3.81 inches of rain was recorded at the mountain stations.
"Normally, monsoon rains cover a limited area as compared to our winter precipitation," Probst noted. "So there can be significant variation in rainfall from one area to another."
For example, the gauge at Beaverhead did not record any rain for the month of July while the gauge at Hannagan Meadows recorded 3.5 inches - the highest total of all eight gauges.
The cumulative total for this water year (beginning October 1, 2002) at the mountain gauges was at 83 percent of the long term average for Aug. 1.
On the positive side, Probst wrote, that is almost double the amount that was reached by this date last year. Cumulative precipitation levels for the water year range from 12.9 inches of water at the Beaverhead station to 26.8 inches at the Promontory station.
Conversely, the National Weather Service is now predicting above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the fall and winter months.
Rivers in the area have flowed at well below normal levels this summer. For much of the middle portion of July, the Little Colorado River ran dry at the gauging station above Lyman Lake.
"Intense storms at the end of the month dramatically raised the flow in streams in the Little Colorado River basin, but only for a few days," Probst wrote, adding: "They are rapidly falling down to low levels again."
Monsoon season is the time when most streams in the regiona experience their peak flows. So far, the only gauged stream that has experienced a significant peak flow has been the Little Colorado River, Probst reported.
According to his report, as of Aug. 1, the Blue River near Clifton was running at 31 percent of average; the San Francisco River at Clifton was running at 80 percent; the San Francisco at Clifton was running at 33 percent; the Gila River near Clifton was running at 19 percent; the Black River near Point of Pines was running at 55 percent; the Little Colorado River above Lyman Lake was running at 386 percent; and Show Low Creek near Lakeside was running at 140 percent.
Drought conditions are still very much in effect over much of the Southwestern U.S., according to the major drought indices.
Specifically, the Palmer Drought Index, which is based on precipitation, temperature, and historical data, indicates eastern and central Arizona are still experiencing severe drought.
The U.S. Drought Monitor, which looks at long term trends and considers long term deficits in precipitation, is now indicating that this area of Arizona is in the midst of a severe to extreme drought.
Dennis
