STORM2K

Thats right...

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO
HILLSBORO...TO ATHENS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

According to this, Texas, along with other states in the southern plains, could be getting several more rounds of severe weather over the next week. Any thoughts?

All I see in the forecast is T storms, so I don't see anything for tornadoes to sporn. Basically, its a lightning show.

One of our local mets said that this upcoming week is likely to be the most active of the year... and with the fact that we have had ice storms, tornado outbreaks, catastrophic flooding, a nearly 12 inch snowstorm, and a major hail storm already in 2008... I am hoping he is wrong!

tornado92 wrote:All I see in the forecast is T storms, so I don't see anything for tornadoes to sporn. Basically, its a lightning show.

4 days out, you will never see tornadoes in a forecast. It is too inexact to predict so far out. Thats why i put "severe weather" in the title, instead of "tornadoes"

Yeah, I think Missouri Tuesday gets it more than Texas on Monday.




Now, Thursday might be interesting in the Southern Plains

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Yeah, I think Missouri Tuesday gets it more than Texas on Monday.




Now, Thursday might be interesting in the Southern Plains

Yeah the forecast for DRW got changed slightly...pops were lowered monday night to just 20%, although severe weather is still possible. But it appears that Wednesday night will be bit more active for texas

OT- but is is cloudy and chilly in SE Texas, on April 5th. Old man Winter isn't relaxing his icy grip on the Lone Star State without a fight.

56ºF (13ºC) cool degrees at IAH

The SPC has definitely been holding back on the threat late next week (Day 6-7 now)...although they do now mention Day 5 (the initiation stage).

This might be quite the week.

RL3AO wrote:This might be quite the week.

I don't see a lot happening in the early part of the week - SLGT risk days with isolated tornadoes is my guess. But the end of the week - especially Thursday and Friday - could be historic.

cheezyWXguy wrote:

tornado92 wrote:All I see in the forecast is T storms, so I don't see anything for tornadoes to sporn. Basically, its a lightning show.

4 days out, you will never see tornadoes in a forecast. It is too inexact to predict so far out. Thats why i put "severe weather" in the title, instead of "tornadoes"

Sorry, I'm still a trainee Chaser and haven't come across weather reports like this before. Over here in England, they tell it to you straight. I thought that it was like that in all countries.

In the grand scheme of things, the jet stream will be transferring a lot of Low pressure systems over next week across and for Ontario it's a yo-yo. It will get to for example:

Day 1. 15C and rain
Day 2. 9C and sunny
Day 3. 14C and rain
Day 4. 8C and sunny and so on.

tornado92 wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:

tornado92 wrote:All I see in the forecast is T storms, so I don't see anything for tornadoes to sporn. Basically, its a lightning show.

4 days out, you will never see tornadoes in a forecast. It is too inexact to predict so far out. Thats why i put "severe weather" in the title, instead of "tornadoes"

Sorry, I'm still a trainee Chaser and haven't come across weather reports like this before. Over here in England, they tell it to you straight. I thought that it was like that in all countries.

Haha I didnt know you guys even had tornadoes up there...but from what ive seen in our forecast discussions/ hazardous weather outlooks, they usually dont mention tornadoes until maybe 1 or 2 days away from the event.

Only the SWODY1 actually breaks out the individual modes of severe weather for probabilities, although the SWODY2 and SWODY3 will sometimes mention tornado or hail threats.

cheezyWXguy wrote:Haha I didnt know you guys even had tornadoes up there...but from what ive seen in our forecast discussions/ hazardous weather outlooks, they usually dont mention tornadoes until maybe 1 or 2 days away from the event.

You would be surprised how many tornadoes England gets, I heard that they get more tornadoes per sq. mile then the US does. I'm not sure if that's exactly right, it's something similar to that.

Cyclenall wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:Haha I didnt know you guys even had tornadoes up there...but from what ive seen in our forecast discussions/ hazardous weather outlooks, they usually dont mention tornadoes until maybe 1 or 2 days away from the event.

You would be surprised how many tornadoes England gets, I heard that they get more tornadoes per sq. mile then the US does. I'm not sure if that's exactly right, it's something similar to that.

Thats probably a true statistic, since england is small and there are many places in the US that dont get many, if any, tornadoes, such as hawaii and alaska.

Cyclenall wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:Haha I didnt know you guys even had tornadoes up there...but from what ive seen in our forecast discussions/ hazardous weather outlooks, they usually dont mention tornadoes until maybe 1 or 2 days away from the event.

You would be surprised how many tornadoes England gets, I heard that they get more tornadoes per sq. mile then the US does. I'm not sure if that's exactly right, it's something similar to that.

It is true mainly because basically anything west of the Rockies get so few tornadoes it lowers the per sq mi average greatly. Also, the UK almost never gets anything above an EF2 or equivalent on the TORRO scale.

I'm not even close to being an expert but the 18z run of the GFS around 120-144 hours looks very very impressive.

RL3AO wrote:I'm not even close to being an expert but the 18z run of the GFS around 120-144 hours looks very very impressive.

Can you post a link to it?