STORM2K

Knowing it is quite likely that we will have a significant (maybe historic) tornado outbreak, I decided to start a separate thread.

Tomorrow looks to be the worst day.

From the language and probabilities with the SWODY2, tomorrow could be a memorable day. I suppose the forecast aspects of the outbreak could continue in the current severe thread, while MCDs, watches, warnings and post storm damage reports could be covered in this thread.

I think we should just move everything here now, and put a link in that thread.

I do think we will go to High Risk tomorrow, and a Moderate for Day 2 tomorrow covering Tuesday for Georgia and the Carolinas. I also think the Moderate Risk for tomorrow will be extended eastward into Alabama.

What a way to (unofficially) begin the severe weather season.

According to the SPC site, the immediate DFW area has a greater chance of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado.

TexasStooge wrote:What a way to (unofficially) begin the severe weather season.

According to the SPC site, the immediate DFW area has a greater chance of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado.

Yeah, some severe weather likely today but nothing like what lies ahead.

High Risk at 1730Z? I don't think so, but I expect the Moderate to be expanded east and north (into W/Mid TN, NE AR and AL), and the Slight Risk also east and north (into W GA, W/Cen KY, S IN, S IL and E MO).

First MCD



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK INTO S CNTRL/E CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021703Z - 021930Z

AN INCREASING RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SEEMS
PROBABLE DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
COOLING IS ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT HAS EMERGED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND
REFLECTED BY ONGOING DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY STILL BASED ABOVE A CAPPING ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ABOVE AN INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BUT...STORMS NOW FORMING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT...NEAR/SOUTH OF DODGE CITY...ARE PROBABLY ROOTED IN OR NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS MID-LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH 18-20Z
...INCREASING/INTENSIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF WICHITA. THIS IS ON THE NOSE OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS...WHERE
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. GIVEN FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...ADDITIONAL SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 20-21Z ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A SHARPENING DRY LINE/SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS...BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF MAIN POLAR TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES.

..KERR.. 03/02/2008

Little change on the new Day 2:

SPC AC 021649

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AR AND MUCH OF LA AND
MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN OK/ERN TX EWD INTO
THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...

--WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.--

...SYNOPSIS...

DYNAMIC MIDLEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
MORNING WILL UNDERGO INTENSIFICATION AND ASSUME AN INCREASING
NEGATIVE TILT AS ATTENDANT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE TROUGH
BASE...CONTRIBUTING TO SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKEWISE DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX AND MS DELTA REGIONS AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN OR MIDDLE TN
BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT INITIALLY FROM W-CNTRL AR TO THE
CNTRL GULF COAST WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NEWD AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING
LOW WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD/SEWD THROUGH ERN TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.

...SRN LOW PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS /LIKELY ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU REGION SWWD INTO CNTRL TX.
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH ACTIVITY RAPIDLY
MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE PERIOD OWING
LARGELY TO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
THROUGH THE 60S FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES. THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS SERN TX...LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS WHERE
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DIABATIC HEATING TO
SUPPORT MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO
DECREASE WITH NWD AND EWD EXTENT ACROSS THE REGION.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG /MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE
MIGRATORY LLJ AXIS/ WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND SRH VALUES SHOULD
EXCEED 45-50 KT AND 300-400 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY. THUS POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS /SOME LONG-LIVED/ EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE
QLCS AND/OR IN ADVANCE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WIND
ALSO APPEAR LIKELY /NAMELY WITH ANY LARGER-SCALE BOWS/ GIVEN
STRONG...AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT FAST STORM MOTIONS.

..MEAD.. 03/02/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1719Z (12:19PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Oi, I do not want an outbreak.

Local media here is going to be taken by surprise.. they've been more interested in our nearly nonexistent chance of snow.

HarlequinBoy wrote:Oi, I do not want an outbreak.

Local media here is going to be taken by surprise.. they've been more interested in our nearly nonexistent chance of snow.

How aware were they of the threat in the lead-up to the Super Tuesday outbreak?

This looks bad.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX INTO WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021917Z - 022145Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SEEMS
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT.



Once Oklahoma starts getting involved, you know it is getting close to the beginning of the peak season.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
133 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

OKZ003-022000-
BEAVER OK-
133 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEASTERN BEAVER COUNTY...

AT 133 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF SLAPOUT MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM
HAS PASSED.

$$

JORDAN

Since the last SPC update, have the models been showing a similar scenario? I'm asking because I'm just to the west of the moderate risk area, in a slight risk area (just west of the Tx/La border), and wondering if the worst of the weather is trending west, east, or pretty much the same.
I have plans tomorrow afternoon that will have me out in this mess, if it does get bad here, so just wondering if the trend is looking better for me, or worse. Thanks.

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 83
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL 800
PM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES EAST OF WICHITA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD AND BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH PRIMARY THREAT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HALES


SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 83
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL 800
PM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES EAST OF WICHITA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD AND BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH PRIMARY THREAT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 021955
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 83
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC007-015-017-033-035-077-079-095-115-155-173-191-030200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0083.080302T2000Z-080303T0200Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER BUTLER CHASE
COMANCHE COWLEY HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN MARION
RENO SEDGWICK SUMNER


OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-059-071-073-093-103-129-149-
151-153-030200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0083.080302T2000Z-080303T0200Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GRANT HARPER
KAY KINGFISHER MAJOR
NOBLE ROGER MILLS WASHITA
WOODS WOODWARD


TXC087-211-295-483-030200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0083.080302T2000Z-080303T0200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLLINGSWORTH HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB
WHEELER


ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...ICT...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW3
WW 83 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 022000Z - 030200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35SW GAG/GAGE OK/ - 50E ICT/WICHITA KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /29SSW GAG - 51E ICT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

LAT...LON 36860020 38599651 36709651 34990020

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.


Watch 83 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

Here's some info from the local NWS offices around our area (Central Gulf Coast):

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1111 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
022200-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1111 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...
TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...AN
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT...THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MONDAY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...AS SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND FORM INTO
A SQUALL LINE.
ACTIVITY OCCURRING WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...WHILE ACTIVITY MONDAY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.
$$
EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
515 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-031200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
515 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. LATEST WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY MONDAY...COMBINES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS ABOUT 5000 FEET BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED SPEED ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ALOFT...SUGGESTS THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI MONDAY EVENING AND OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST STRETCHING
INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE MARINE AREA...A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD BE ALERT MONDAY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1110 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-031715-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1110 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE WEST OF A TYLERTOWN MISSISSIPPI
TO HOUMA LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THIS LINE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE...WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS AND LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND OTHER OFFICIALS RESPONSIBLE
FOR PUBLIC SAFETY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1241 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
ALZ011>015-017>050-031841-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1241 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE AND
TRAVERSE CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 8 AM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SQUALL LINE EARLIER IN THE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...RAINFALL TOTALS COULD EXCEED ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...IF ACCUMULATIONS MUCH BEYOND AN INCH OR
SO OCCUR...WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS EVENT AND SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. TAKE TIME TO GO
OVER YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN...MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO IS FUNCTIONAL AND CHECK BACK HERE OFTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
FINALLY...WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON TUESDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
$$

We're watching closely here.

Good timing on the watch, radar shows severe storm in NW Oklahoma!

Harper County (no PTA mentioned)

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE KS/SW NEB INTO NW MO...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 022009Z - 022215Z

THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.

PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING BENEATH A CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
BUT...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...INTO THE VICINITY OF A MELTING SNOW FIELD
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS COULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOW AND 03/00Z...AS SHARP SURFACE
FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AND
UPSTREAM IMPULSE LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR THE FRONT TO OUTRUN THE
ARRIVAL OF WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT...LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT. AND...THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THEY QUICKLY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. THIS MAY
MITIGATE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES...AND REDUCE THE
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 03/02/2008


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

38949652 39639642 40249560 40809471 41029382 40299303
39719349 39169468 38729525 38589627

TORNADO WARNING
OKC059-022115-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0003.080302T2034Z-080302T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 234 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUFFALO AND SELMAN.

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

LAT...LON 3696 9945 3675 9935 3675 9971 3683 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 244DEG 39KT 3681 9965

$$

A new Special Weather Statement has been issued by the Jackson WFO...........wording now includes STRONG tornadoes I am also wondering if this will become a high/PDS.