STORM2K

ANOTHER S/W DROPS SSE INTO TX SATURDAY AND COULD TAP INTO PACIFIC
MOISTURE BRING AN INCREASE FROM TODAYS FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS TO
MORE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SW US INTO CO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL A DIGGING S/W MOVES IN FROM GAK. PLEASANT
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE. (A MODIFIED BACK DOOR CANADIAN AIRMASS MAY MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY AND COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS BUT PLAN TO
MINIMIZE ITS IMPACTS ATTM) THIS TROUGH WILL DROP SE AND SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A RAIN EVENT/TSRA TUESDAY. RICH PACIFIC MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING EAST OF HI WILL GET TAPPED BY THIS SYSTEM
AS IT DROPS SOUTH AND FAST WSW WILL BECOME DIFFLUENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND WITH 24-36 HOURS OF GOOD MOISTURE RETURN EXPECT TO
SEE A BOUT OF TSRA MAYBE SOME STRONG ONES AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PRIOR TO FROPA. WOULD EXPECT THE
CURRENT 30-44 POPS TO INCREASE AS THE EVENT NEARS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES EAST AND COULD BRING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SETX SHOULD DRY OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER DRIER WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF INDICATING A WET PATTERN MAY BE TAKING
SHAPE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

CrazyC83 wrote:Doesn't look nearly as bad as this disaster, but things can change in a heartbeat.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST SAT FEB 09 2008

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY /FEB 12-13/...

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG MREF MEMBERS CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AND...THIS GROWS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE LATEST MREF
MEANS AND THE ECMWF LEND SUPPORT FOR GROWING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BY NEXT TUESDAY. A RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER...
AND INLAND ADVECTION...APPEARS PROBABLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE PRECEDING THE MAIN POLAR WAVE. AND...A
SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF FLOW FIELDS...AND DEEP LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...AT THE LIKELY ONSET OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INLAND OF
COASTAL AREAS LATE NEXT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 02/09/2008

fact789 wrote:looks like Florida might get in on this one. Does that mean the run of the duds is over?

weatherrabbit_tx wrote:and the bud shootout tonight!

flwxwatcher wrote:Its looking like Florida will be in on the next bout of Severe weather Tue/wed indeed. Interesting early week shaping up.

SPC AC 100828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2008

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE AFTN/TUE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA....

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL LIKELY BE
SUPPRESSED AS THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INLAND OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND U.S. CASCADES. BUT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL U.S. ROCKIES...IN THE
WAKE OF ANOTHER IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS PROGGED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO A SHARPER/PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL
TILTED BROADER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN PHASE WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE SUBTROPICAL WAVE/JET STREAK EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET IN
THE CREST OF A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BUT...THIS NOW APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ALONG A FRONT OFF SOUTHERN
MID/ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

...GULF COAST/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOIST AXIS BY
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEEP MOIST INFLOW FORECAST
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.
ONLY VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN TEXAS...AND EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT...THIS COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BEFORE SHEAR PROFILES BEGIN TO
WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING....AS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIES A SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSE PRECEDING THE MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE. DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITHIN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER SCALE LIFT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A RISK FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 02/10/2008