More severe wx Feb 12th & 13th?

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Ed Mahmoud

More severe wx Feb 12th & 13th?

#1 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Feb 08, 2008 9:08 am

SPC hasn't identified a risk area in the Day 4 to 8 outlook, but here is a snip of the NWS HGX AFD

ANOTHER S/W DROPS SSE INTO TX SATURDAY AND COULD TAP INTO PACIFIC
MOISTURE BRING AN INCREASE FROM TODAYS FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS TO
MORE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SW US INTO CO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL A DIGGING S/W MOVES IN FROM GAK. PLEASANT
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE. (A MODIFIED BACK DOOR CANADIAN AIRMASS MAY MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY AND COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS BUT PLAN TO
MINIMIZE ITS IMPACTS ATTM) THIS TROUGH WILL DROP SE AND SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A RAIN EVENT/TSRA TUESDAY. RICH PACIFIC MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING EAST OF HI WILL GET TAPPED BY THIS SYSTEM
AS IT DROPS SOUTH AND FAST WSW WILL BECOME DIFFLUENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND WITH 24-36 HOURS OF GOOD MOISTURE RETURN EXPECT TO
SEE A BOUT OF TSRA MAYBE SOME STRONG ONES AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PRIOR TO FROPA. WOULD EXPECT THE
CURRENT 30-44 POPS TO INCREASE AS THE EVENT NEARS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES EAST AND COULD BRING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SETX SHOULD DRY OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER DRIER WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF INDICATING A WET PATTERN MAY BE TAKING
SHAPE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.



The 0Z Euro doesn't look too scary, but the 0Z GFS shows a potentially stormy set up late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Last edited by Ed Mahmoud on Tue Feb 12, 2008 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Feb 08, 2008 9:27 am

Doesn't look nearly as bad as this disaster, but things can change in a heartbeat.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#3 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Feb 08, 2008 9:59 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Doesn't look nearly as bad as this disaster, but things can change in a heartbeat.


Still 5 days out. If the Euro is right, the upper system is faster, and doesn't really deepen until it reaches the East Coast.

The Canadian is somewhere in between.

DGEX shows pretty good instability Wednesday late afternoon.
Image

That image will change in a few hours, as I don't have an active Photobucket account. But I can probably come back and edit this entry, and subtract 12 hours of the time in the URL, to make it valid for the same time.

Convective precip forecast
Image

850 mb winds
Image
Last edited by Ed Mahmoud on Sat Feb 09, 2008 7:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: More severe wx ~ Feb 13th?

#4 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Feb 08, 2008 12:44 pm

If the 12Z GFS is correct, any severe weather would be primarily confined to the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast states, and maybe Georgia.

Image
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Re: More severe wx ~ Feb 13th?

#5 Postby RL3AO » Sat Feb 09, 2008 1:30 am

Is it just me, or does this look interesting?

Image
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: More severe wx ~ Feb 13th?

#6 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Feb 09, 2008 10:16 am

Looks like a small area is hi-lighted by SPC.

Good that the hard hit areas get a break.

Image

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST SAT FEB 09 2008

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY /FEB 12-13/...

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG MREF MEMBERS CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AND...THIS GROWS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE LATEST MREF
MEANS AND THE ECMWF LEND SUPPORT FOR GROWING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BY NEXT TUESDAY. A RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER...
AND INLAND ADVECTION...APPEARS PROBABLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE PRECEDING THE MAIN POLAR WAVE. AND...A
SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF FLOW FIELDS...AND DEEP LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...AT THE LIKELY ONSET OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INLAND OF
COASTAL AREAS LATE NEXT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 02/09/2008
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#7 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Feb 09, 2008 10:19 am

looks like Florida might get in on this one. Does that mean the run of the duds is over?
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Re:

#8 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Feb 09, 2008 10:54 am

fact789 wrote:looks like Florida might get in on this one. Does that mean the run of the duds is over?



y'all need the rain.


Lets just hope for good weather for the Twin Gatorade races on Thursday and the Daytona 500 on Sunday.
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Re: More severe wx ~ Feb 13th?

#9 Postby weatherrabbit_tx » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:06 pm

and the bud shootout tonight!
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: More severe wx ~ Feb 13th?

#10 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:22 pm

weatherrabbit_tx wrote:and the bud shootout tonight!



Cloudy, but the ARCA race has just started with good weather. Alli Owens just spun.

Image

Flat tires, but no obvious damage in the #12 ElectrifyingCareers.com Monte Carlo. She is only 19, and in her first ARCA race.
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Re: More severe wx ~ Feb 13th?

#11 Postby flwxwatcher » Sat Feb 09, 2008 7:14 pm

Its looking like Florida will be in on the next bout of Severe weather Tue/wed indeed. Interesting early week shaping up.
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Re: More severe wx ~ Feb 13th?

#12 Postby flwxwatcher » Sat Feb 09, 2008 7:31 pm

flwxwatcher wrote:Its looking like Florida will be in on the next bout of Severe weather Tue/wed indeed. Interesting early week shaping up.


Also... looking at the JMA model it brings an even stronger system across the northern gulf coast then quickly up and off the eastern seaboard next week-end.
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Re: More severe wx ~ Feb 13th?

#13 Postby flwxwatcher » Sun Feb 10, 2008 11:00 am

SPC has a good part of the Florida Peninsula under a slight risk for severe weather for day 3 ( Late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night.

SPC AC 100828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2008

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE AFTN/TUE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA....

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL LIKELY BE
SUPPRESSED AS THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INLAND OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND U.S. CASCADES. BUT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL U.S. ROCKIES...IN THE
WAKE OF ANOTHER IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS PROGGED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO A SHARPER/PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL
TILTED BROADER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN PHASE WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE SUBTROPICAL WAVE/JET STREAK EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET IN
THE CREST OF A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BUT...THIS NOW APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ALONG A FRONT OFF SOUTHERN
MID/ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

...GULF COAST/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOIST AXIS BY
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEEP MOIST INFLOW FORECAST
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.
ONLY VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN TEXAS...AND EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT...THIS COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BEFORE SHEAR PROFILES BEGIN TO
WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING....AS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIES A SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSE PRECEDING THE MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE. DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITHIN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER SCALE LIFT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A RISK FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 02/10/2008
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Re: More severe wx ~ Feb 13th?

#14 Postby flwxwatcher » Sun Feb 10, 2008 11:44 am

Todays 12Z GFS continues to show a possible severe weather and much needed rain event for Florida Tuesday Afternoon lasting into Wed.
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#15 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Feb 10, 2008 2:08 pm

From Tampa Bay HWO:

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO FLORIDA BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INCLUDED
ALL OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ZONE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
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#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:07 pm

At least the chance of a major outbreak is low...
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Re: More severe wx ~ Feb 13th?

#17 Postby flwxwatcher » Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:24 pm

Besides the possible Severe threat , its looking like this could be quite a heavy rain producer for parts of Florida.
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#18 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Feb 11, 2008 7:25 am

Day 1-3 Severe Outlooks (as of 6:25am February 11th):

Image
Image
Image
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Re: More severe wx ~ Feb 13th?

#19 Postby ronjon » Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:36 am

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EST MON FEB 11 2008

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEPENING MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMBINES WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INCLUDED ALL
OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ZONE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
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#20 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Feb 11, 2008 2:50 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-120915-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
200 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA
HAS PLACED ALL OF FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE CATEGORY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. THE FIRST
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT BEING PULLED NORTH BY THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CROSSING THE GULF. ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE SECOND WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF. IF THIS LOW HOLDS TOGETHER THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE INCREASED. MORE UPDATES ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ISSUED AS THE STORM
APPROACHES.

$$
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