How low will Lake Okeechobee get by May/June

[boca]

I don't see S Florida getting any rain before June. I'd say the lake O level will drop to 7.5 ft. Any other opinions.

[AJC3]

I don't see S Florida getting any rain before June. I'd say the lake O level will drop to 7.5 ft. Any other opinions.

One thing to remember is that the Lake O level will be more affected by cumulative rainfall in the central Florida peninsula (i.e. the Kissimmee River basin, which drains south into the lake) rather than the southern peninsula. In any event, rainfall prospects for the late winter-spring period, look pretty dire for south Florida, and don't look all that great for central Florida either.

Here's a Feb 5 news release from the South Florida WMD with some of the latest drought-related info...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

[jinftl]

Looks like a new desert emerging south of I-4...or at the very least a parched southern half of the peninsula...with fire season right around the corner...

http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/4km_main.html

[brunota2003]

Interesting note to mention is that mother nature always seems to find a way to balance things out in the end...

[jinftl]

so true...so true...and often in a very dramatic way....applying the laws of physics, 'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction'..let's just hope that 'equal and opposite reaction' isn't a tropical beast this summer/fall

Interesting note to mention is that mother nature always seems to find a way to balance things out in the end...

[boca]

Looks like Tues/Wed time frame for beneficial rains for Central/Southern Florida.

TUE-WED IS WHEN THE WEATHER COULD BECOME POTENTIALLY ACTIVE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MODELS TAKE THIS ENERGY OUT INTO THE GULF WITH AN INVERTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY. GFS RESPONDS
BY DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA THEN QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FL BY 00Z WED WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NE GULF. A QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT. THE LARGER AMPLITUDE TROUGH THEN DIGS
SOUTHWARD WED...AND ACTS TO SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GFS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE NAM SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH ON TUE WITH A WARM FROM MOVING SLOWER ACROSS SOUTH FL
TUE NIGHT. THE NAM TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
EARLY WED WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE MUCH SOONER ACROSS THE AREA
BY WED AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...SINCE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN LINE AND
HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...WILL TREND WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT
CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE NAM EITHER.

ONE THING IS CLEAR...ALL MODELS POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FL IN THE TUE-TUE NIGHT-WED
TIMEFRAME...BUT EACH MODEL HAS TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...SEVERE WX THREAT IS GREATEST LOCALLY TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. IF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE CORRECT...RISK IS GREATEST
TUE-TUE NIGHT FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL OR NORTH FL...BUT ALL OF
THE PENINSULA ON WED. IN DISCUSSION WITH SPC...AGREE THAT THE MAIN
CONCERN TUE-TUE NIGHT WOULD BE POTENTIAL TORNADOES...AND THAT
WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE LINEAR WED WHILE STRENGTHENING...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG A SQUALL LINE...BUT STILL TOR`S
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GFS SHOWS H85 WINDS OF UP TO 50 KT ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH GOOD CAPE AND FORCING WITH THE FROPA.

DECIDED THAT...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
DETAILS...THAT NOW IS THE TIME TO START BRINGING ATTENTION TO THE
SEVERE WX POSSIBILITIES TUE-WED. THUS...UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO DESCRIBE WHAT IS MOST EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK.

&&