Texas Fall 2013

[Jarodm12]

Don't think I've ever seen more love for the NAM on this board than in the last few days. I'm afraid that some of you Metroplexers are going to be cursing it come Monday for not delivering the goods.

Just sayin' ...

Oh Portastorm you should know better! We don't love any model, all of them have caused us to pull our hairs out one point or another. We just pick the most convenient model that shows 2 feet of snow every time!

Ntxw are you concerned that our temps are too high? why do they seem to be raising some and night has fallen?

[northtxboy]

Hello everyone!! can anyone tell me what to expect here in Windom tx? Im in fannin county near the red river east of hwy 75. Our weather is always much different from dfw.. Been really busy so havent had time to dig into the models..

[Portastorm]

Don't think I've ever seen more love for the NAM on this board than in the last few days. I'm afraid that some of you Metroplexers are going to be cursing it come Monday for not delivering the goods.

Just sayin' ...

hey i dont necessarily want snow i just love winter weather im in Waco and apparently we are in a heavy precip zone i just dont want that heavily precip as cold rain. got to take it when you can get it, know what im saying?

Have faith, amigo. King Euro and the SREF have shown a good shot at some wintry weather for you! You don't need the NAM to have a party.

Right now I'm thinking you may see more sleet than freezing rain.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw are you concerned that our temps are too high? why do they seem to be raising some and night has fallen?

I am not concerned about surface temperatures. When you are looking at winter storms, you have to kind of put aside the readings of what you see. Of course it's important when you are talking about freezing rain and accumulation but the reality is that what happens above our heads is important for precip type. The secondary surge of cold air advection is well on it's way and it's not something you really feel on the ground, it's getting deeper above which means more dynamics such as wet bulb as heavy precipitation comes in from the west/southwest for the entire column.

It will get below freezing when the precipitation gets going on the ground that is not in question really, what is in question is will the warm nose cause more freezing rain, or sleet, or even snow if it is that close.

[Jarodm12]

i guess its time to go get some whiskey. its five o clock somewhere

[jeff]

Both 00z FWD and SHV soundings show the model forecasted 900-850mb drying very well (ie the arrival of the secondary arctic surge from the NNE). Lots of room in both soundings for cooling in that level now once forcing and precip begin compared to the saturated low level soundings at CRP and LCH.

[SnowintheFalls]

The mets in the Wichita Falls area have already begun backing off the forecast regarding type of precip and amounts. I recently stumbled upon this site and may not understand the vernacular or models yet but do find it intriguing. I've never really put much thought beyond the local forecast! Thanks for all the insight!

[Portastorm]

Already seeing chatter online about how the 0z NAM initialized incorrectly and doesn't have the 0z weather matched up correctly.

[DonWrk]

Well we are less than 24 hours away from the event. Isn't it time for the S2K crew to start throwing out their own predictions?!

[gpsnowman]

Already seeing chatter online about how the 0z NAM initialized incorrectly and doesn't have the 0z weather matched up correctly.

Is this in regards to the NAM run earlier that was inconsistent with the several previous runs?

[Portastorm]

Well we are less than 24 hours away from the event. Isn't it time for the S2K crew to start throwing out their own predictions?!

Sure, I'll bite. But I'm not comfortable making a detailed call on North Texas. I would say that freezing rain will transition to sleet and snow and that some accumulations will occur in the Metroplex but it will not be a snowmageddon. Several inches of sleet for DFW is quite possible.

For my area, I think we transition from rain to freezing rain to a wintry mix overnight Sunday night into Monday. I think it'll be one of those events which ices bridges and overpasses and roadways not traveled frequently (i.e. rural areas). And snow flurries Monday night in Austin wouldn't surprise me at all.

That's what I'm seeing now. I'd like to soak in the 21z SREF run (now coming in) and also see tomorrow morning how the ULL is behaving in terms of track.

My two pesos, for now.

[Portastorm]

Already seeing chatter online about how the 0z NAM initialized incorrectly and doesn't have the 0z weather matched up correctly.

Is this in regards to the NAM run earlier that was inconsistent with the several previous runs?

I'm only speaking to the 0z NAM which is running right now. It didn't initialize correctly. I, along with others, think it's way too dry. I'd throw it out.

[joshskeety]

Pretty sure the 2nd front is now through DFW...skies have cleared and wind is stiffening from the north. Air is noticeably drier.

Yup.... Seeing the same thing here in Parker county...

Going to allow temps to drop off at night without the cloud cover and lower dewpoints..

Where is Parker County........among the 256 in Texas?

Just west of the metroplex.. In the boonies as they say..


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[Portastorm]

OK, one last post before the PWC shuts it down for the night to enjoy watching the second half of Okie State-Baylor ... we all need to be watching satellite from here on it and seeing how the upper level low (ULL) is behaving and which short-range models initialize it correctly. As the good NWS folks in Fort Worth have said, the drying air coming in from the northeast will cool down the atmosphere enough that when precip starts and we start to see some wet-bulb cooling, the air column should cool sufficiently for sleet/freezing rain and some snow mixed in North Texas and into Central Texas.

Austin remains on the edge of the cold rain-wintry mix line per the short range models I have seen tonight. It's going to be close.

I think anyone west of a San Antonio-Waco-Greenville line is going to see a healthy dose of "winter" by Monday morning.

[joshskeety]

Well we are less than 24 hours away from the event. Isn't it time for the S2K crew to start throwing out their own predictions?!

Sure, I'll bite. But I'm not comfortable making a detailed call on North Texas. I would say that freezing rain will transition to sleet and snow and that some accumulations will occur in the Metroplex but it will not be a snowmageddon. Several inches of sleet for DFW is quite possible.

For my area, I think we transition from rain to freezing rain to a wintry mix overnight Sunday night into Monday. I think it'll be one of those events which ices bridges and overpasses and roadways not traveled frequently (i.e. rural areas). And snow flurries Monday night in Austin wouldn't surprise me at all.

That's what I'm seeing now. I'd like to soak in the 21z SREF run (now coming in) and also see tomorrow morning how the ULL is behaving in terms of track.

My two pesos, for now.

1 inch of sleet is far worse than snow.. Especially cold hard sleet that turns everything into an instant ice rink.. If Dfw gets 2-3 inches of sleet and a couple inches of snow it will be horrible.. Good news is freezing rain stays far south which can cause power havoc.. But I live way out and can live off the grid anyway, so none of that bothers me.. Kiddos will hate it though.. Lol.


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[downsouthman1]

Don't think I've ever seen more love for the NAM on this board than in the last few days. I'm afraid that some of you Metroplexers are going to be cursing it come Monday for not delivering the goods.

Just sayin' ...

Yesterday in this very thread I said that the DFW is on the northern end of the significant accumulations but was told I was wrong.

[downsouthman1]

Don't think I've ever seen more love for the NAM on this board than in the last few days. I'm afraid that some of you Metroplexers are going to be cursing it come Monday for not delivering the goods.

Just sayin' ...

Oh Portastorm you should know better! We don't love any model, all of them have caused us to pull our hairs out one point or another. We just pick the most convenient model that shows 2 feet of snow every time!

Ntxw are you concerned that our temps are too high? why do they seem to be raising some and night has fallen?

It would appear to me that the large pocket of dry air coming from the north we've been talking about has traveled in more of a SWly direction towards the Permian Basin. I assume it will get absorbed by the ULL as it spreads lift over our area & I'm starting to wonder if it will make it as far east as the I35 corridor. If it does not, this will be a cold rain because wet bulb will be above freezing. Granted I'm looking at surface obs. & I remember what has been said in this thread about surface versus atmospheric column.

[Brandon8181]

Hello winter or perhaps fall winter weather lovers... Haven't been on in awhile, but check things out here regularly.. So what are the best website now days to view computer models?

Thank you,
Brandon

[Ntxw]

Hello winter or perhaps fall winter weather lovers... Haven't been on in awhile, but check things out here regularly.. So what are the best website now days to view computer models?

Thank you,
Brandon

Some popular sites, enjoy

PSU e-Wall

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

Instantweathermaps

http://www.instantweathermaps.com

NCEP Models

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

[joshskeety]

Screwup on the 00z NAM... I dunno.. Anyone look at the 9h 850mb Dewpoints. Its not a mystery why the NAM is going on nutty the past few runs.. Its way over doing the dry air in a crazy mysterious special super duper dry air..

Way overdone considering its just some mysterious dry air that breaks off and hangs over Northern Texas..

Not taking to effect the fact that the ground is still way wet and no way we see -35c Dewpoints at 5,000 feet.. Sounding at 5,000 feet shows the same..



And if that image isn't CRAZY enough for ya.. Look at this sounding.. Im not sure if I have ever seen anything like it...



A bit much??? -5c Dewpoints, MAYBE -10c dewpoints, but -30c? Especially when even east it has -15c? With wet grounds and temps got up near 40 today? Yea.. No doubt there are issues with it.. And probably have been over the past 3-4 runs..

This is exactly why it seems to be going overly nuts on not allowing the atmosphere to moisten.. Yea, the dewpoint at 5-6,000 feet has MAGICALLY hit -22 F in a few hours...

So, until this resolves, and where this anomaly lies, I would stick to the Euro models for the next few runs..