C/S TX Weather: Seasonal with some rains

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gboudx
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Re:

#941 Postby gboudx » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:42 am

Shoshana wrote:Police have been called but they keep coming back. I don't think they're homeless, I think they think they found a good spot to hang out at dusk into night to drink and maybe smoke some weed.


They're just doing their part to keep Austin weird. :wink:
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Re: Re:

#942 Postby Portastorm » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:44 am

gboudx wrote:
Shoshana wrote:Police have been called but they keep coming back. I don't think they're homeless, I think they think they found a good spot to hang out at dusk into night to drink and maybe smoke some weed.


They're just doing their part to keep Austin weird. :wink:


Best line I've seen on this board in days!! :lol: :lol:
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Re: Re:

#943 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:46 am

Portastorm wrote:
gboudx wrote:
Shoshana wrote:Police have been called but they keep coming back. I don't think they're homeless, I think they think they found a good spot to hang out at dusk into night to drink and maybe smoke some weed.


They're just doing their part to keep Austin weird. :wink:


Best line I've seen on this board in days!! :lol: :lol:



Indeed
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Re: C/SC TX Weather: Frying Pan Summer

#944 Postby Shoshana » Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:23 am

lol
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#945 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:41 pm

on a Texan friend's facebook page:

ATTENTION: IF YOU ARE LOCATED IN THE TEXAS OR ARIZONA AREA AFFECTED BY DROUGHT, PLEASE LEAVE SEEDS, WATER, AND FOOD IN YOUR YARDS, THE WILDLIFE ARE ABANDONING THEIR OWN YOUNG DUE TO LACK OF ABILITY TO SURVIVE THE DROUGHT. TO HELP SAVE THE WILDLIFE AND ITS OFFSPRING, VETS ARE ASKING FOR FOOD AND WATER TO BE LEFT OUT FOR THE ANIMALS TO FIND TO AID IN THE OFFSPRING AND YOUNGSTERS SURVIVAL. PLEASE PLEASE REPOST & SHARE!!
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#946 Postby Shoshana » Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:39 pm

Austin: Tues Day 62 100+ ( 7 days to tie 1925's record of 69)

Day 3 in a row 100+

Day 14 105+

Day 0 in a row 105


27 in a row 100+ current record 2011!
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Re: C/SC TX Weather: Frying Pan Summer

#947 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:31 pm

Do you guys think this is a sign of things to come? I was reading the Time Magazine article on how we are forecast to get drier in the future, but actually we have been getting wetter during the past 50 years compared to the late 1800s and early 1900s.
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#948 Postby Shoshana » Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:14 pm

Austin: Wed Day 63 100+ ( 6! days to tie 1925's record of 69)

Day 4 in a row 100+

Day 14 105+

Day 0 in a row 105


27 in a row 100+ current record 2011!
Last edited by Shoshana on Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#949 Postby Shoshana » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:24 pm

Austin to Implement Stage 2 Water Restrictions

Updated: Wednesday, 17 Aug 2011, 8:58 PM CDT
Published : Wednesday, 17 Aug 2011, 8:58 PM CDT

Sources Tell FOX 7 that the City of Austin is about to enter Stage 2 water restrictions.

Effective Sept. 6, residents will only be allowed to water once a week, but they can still hand water anytime.

No outdoor fountains will be allowed, unless it’s necessary to provide aeration for aquatic life. Also restaurants will only be able to serve water upon request.

The city is expected to officially announce the new restrictions on Thursday.
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#950 Postby gboudx » Thu Aug 18, 2011 7:21 am

DFW with a ray of hope end of next week.

FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT AN UPPER
LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM AND TRACK ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS
WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE FROM THERE. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS DROP TO THE SOUTH AND PLACES THE NORTH TEXAS
IN A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR LIFT AND THIS WOULD EQUAL DECENT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS AN UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
GETS WEDGED BETWEEN THE TWO DOMINANT RIDGES AND STALLS BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF HAS
FOLLOWED THE GFS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK WITH A PATH SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD ALSO
INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND THUS OUR
POTENTIAL TROUGH. MANY VARIABLES HAVE TO BE SORTED THROUGH...BUT
KEPT THE 20 POPS FOR THURSDAY IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS SOMETHING
TO WATCH AND CAN HOPEFULLY BRING THE REGION SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL.
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#951 Postby Shoshana » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:17 am

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE 192 TO 240-HR TIME
FRAME. THIS IS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT BEARS
WATCHING AS IT WOULD BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT FOR RAIN.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY. 20-FT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT TO
PROMOTE THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. THE ONGOING DROUGHT HAS RESULTED
IN EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WHICH WILL BE EASILY IGNITED.


Not holding my breath.

Edited @2pm to add (because I don't want to make yet another new post lol)

(San Antonio) Stage 3 water limits looming

With no rain in sight and temperatures scorching, Stage 3 water-use restrictions could be announced as early as Monday, the Edwards Aquifer Authority said Wednesday.

When that happens, landscape sprinkling will be allowed only once every two weeks, rather than weekly, unless by a hand-held hose, and restrictions for hotels and golf courses would be tightened. All other Stage 2 restrictions would remain in effect.


For more complete info, see San Antonio Water System Stage 3

I can't find anything that even says what Austin's Stage 3 is. Weird huh? I figure it will be close to SA's.

Edited yet again. According to a PDF file I found Stage 3 is triggered by when the Highland Lakes are down to 681,000 acre feet. (Stage 2 is 900,000) and the only thing is says is "No outdoor watering allowed"
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Re: C/SC TX Weather: Frying Pan Summer

#952 Postby Shoshana » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:25 pm

Austin: Thurs Day 64 100+ ( 5! days to tie 1925's record of 69)

Day 5 in a row 100+

Day 15 105+

Day 1 in a row 105


27 in a row 100+ current record 2011!

It's officially 104 @ Mabry 2:51 pm. I'm thinking it's at least 105 right now. 108.7 here.

edited: 106 officially 110 here.
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#953 Postby Shoshana » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:26 pm

Austin:

(Mabry) Fri Day 65 100+ ( 4 days to tie 1925's record of 69)

Day 6 in a row 100+

Day 16 105+

Day 2 in a row 105

27 in a row 100+ current record 2011!

(Bergstrom) Fri Day 52 100+ (3 days to tie 2009's record of 55)
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Re: C/SC TX Weather: Frying Pan Summer

#954 Postby horselattitudesfarm » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:59 pm

I tried to add a little artistic bent to this horrible drought and heat wave in Texas. Here goes:

Lovely signs of Drought......a poem:

The dead crispy St. Augustine grass crackles and burns the bottom of my feet.
The warm fetid stench of fishkill from a too-hot lake wafts across my backyard.
A starving bobcat delivers a kill to the white goose near the receding shoreline, a pile of white feathers to show for it.

Green leaves burning in the sun join their brown cousins smelling of boiling spinach
Cracks too deep to fill with a hose sprout crickets when watered
Burned hands from a fiery hose made mad by the sun

The pressure-dome presses! The pressure-dome presses!
Bleaching the blue sky to a hazy white
Please, someone, take the lid off and let me breathe!
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Re: C/SC TX Weather: Frying Pan Summer

#955 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:23 pm

horselattitudesfarm wrote:I tried to add a little artistic bent to this horrible drought and heat wave in Texas. Here goes:

Lovely signs of Drought......a poem:

The dead crispy St. Augustine grass crackles and burns the bottom of my feet.
The warm fetid stench of fishkill from a too-hot lake wafts across my backyard.
A starving bobcat delivers a kill to the white goose near the receding shoreline, a pile of white feathers to show for it.

Green leaves burning in the sun join their brown cousins smelling of boiling spinach
Cracks too deep to fill with a hose sprout crickets when watered
Burned hands from a fiery hose made mad by the sun

The pressure-dome presses! The pressure-dome presses!
Bleaching the blue sky to a hazy white
Please, someone, take the lid off and let me breathe!

BRAVO!! BRAVO!! Very good description of the state of our state!
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Re: C/SC TX Weather: Frying Pan Summer

#956 Postby Shoshana » Sat Aug 20, 2011 2:58 pm

horselattitudesfarm wrote:I tried to add a little artistic bent to this horrible drought and heat wave in Texas. Here goes:

Lovely signs of Drought......a poem:

The dead crispy St. Augustine grass crackles and burns the bottom of my feet.
The warm fetid stench of fishkill from a too-hot lake wafts across my backyard.
A starving bobcat delivers a kill to the white goose near the receding shoreline, a pile of white feathers to show for it.

Green leaves burning in the sun join their brown cousins smelling of boiling spinach
Cracks too deep to fill with a hose sprout crickets when watered
Burned hands from a fiery hose made mad by the sun

The pressure-dome presses! The pressure-dome presses!
Bleaching the blue sky to a hazy white
Please, someone, take the lid off and let me breathe!


I need a like button!


Austin:

(Mabry) Sat Day 66 100+ (3 days to tie 1925's record of 69)

Day 7 in a row 100+

Day 17 105+

Day 3 in a row 105

27 in a row 100+ current record 2011!

(Bergstrom) Sat Day 53 100+ (2 days to tie 2009's record of 55)
Last edited by Shoshana on Sat Aug 20, 2011 7:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#957 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 3:33 pm

Well unfortunately my Texas friends it looks like no relief in site for our hot and dry conditions for the next two weeks. 12zGFS Ensembles forecast temperatures 3 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal and the 6zGFS Forecast no widespread rain thru the next 9 days. The 0zECMWF EPS Control Run is really dry with its run forecasting less than 0.25 inches of rain for the whole state of Texas thru September 1st!!





Image

12zGFS Ensembles Mean Temperature thru the next 7 days.


Image

And of course with above normal temperatures come below normal rainfall. This is the 06zGFS Total Precipitation thru the next 8 Days.


The most unsettling forecast comes from the NOAA outlook for September which they forecast for below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures. The reason I find it unsettling is that September is usually the rainiest month in south texas and if the rains fail to come we would be in a worst position that we are now. Looking at the ECMWF Monthly Forecast released last Thursday it shows some modest rainfall totals ending on September 18. It basically shows the whole state of Texas with Rainfall Totals of 3 to 4 inches except for central texas which shows rainfall totals of 1 inch. (sorry Shoshana and Portastorm)

Image

NOAA September precipitation outlook.

Image

NOAA Septermber Temperature Outlook.
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Re: C/SC TX Weather: Frying Pan Summer

#958 Postby iorange55 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:26 pm

It seems like the GFS has been hinting at some type of "cool" down by next weekend for us folks in Dallas. I haven't been paying close attention, but I'm crossing my fingers.
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Re: C/SC TX Weather: Frying Pan Summer

#959 Postby Portastorm » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:30 pm

Rgv, I don't know about that ... the 12z GFS looked pretty good for our rain chances in about seven days. I think it's safe to say that for the next five days, no rain ... beyond that I'm not sure I agree with your assessment.

If Irene-to-be does indeed grow into what many think she will ... and hit somewhere along the Gulf Coast or Florida ... chances are decent the storm creates enough havoc in the upper levels to break down the death ridge ... at least the eastern end of it.

Meanwhile with our triple digit high temp here in Austin, our 66th day of 100 or more, we're tied for third place in the record books.
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#960 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:52 pm

:uarrow: Took a closer look at the 12zGFS&ECMWF and they do show some light green on the forecast map Thursday night going into Friday morning for Central Texas (maybe a line of Tstorms with the weak front moving in to north texas?). Beyond seven days I just do not see any significant rainfall thru the end of August.

I still think tho that NOAA's September rainfall outlook is a tad on the dry side and we should see at least near normal rainfall for the state of Texas.
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