Texas Fall 2024

[Ntxw]

There's definitely some snowy ensembles here which is a good sign at day 10 especially

Can't get caught up in the op runs like they said

Personally I'd be surprised if we get a real snow in early December but nobody thought we'd get a foot of rain this month either never say never

They are all cold in December except for 1951.

[Stratton23]

Overnight Euro weekly run keeps the blocking pattern in place through the start of January, thats crazy!

[HockeyTx82]

Overnight Euro weekly run keeps the blocking pattern in place through the start of January, thats crazy!

I'll believe when I see it.

Sometimes the models get a little to much holiday cheer early on.

[Stratton23]

HockeyTx82 maybe not for that extended period, but its happening in real time, the ridge is there, models have consistently been underestimating the strength of that alaskan ridge, the cold is coming, its just a matter of how cold, something the global models are going to really struggle with

[Brent]

I don't think this is a fakeout this is way colder than the TWC app has been all season... I mean let's remember Tulsa hasnt even had a freeze yet and it's showing multiple nights well into the 20s already at day 10. That's a big change. I mean yes that's not that impressive on the surface vs records(again partially because we have been torching for months) but it's already trended colder from the last couple days and probably will even more

7 freezes I counted were at zero right now for the season

[Ntxw]

For me, really looking for something consistently below normal. We don't need record we just need to sustain it, 40s/50s for highs and 20s/30s for lows. Starting the month well below normal deviates from every month beginning hot of late. The ceiling is higher with potential Arctic outbreak but that will have to wait and see how cold it gets up North first when the high pressures deliver.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw agreed, though it does help that we are getting a healthy snowpack to develop over a good chunk of canada, that would help slow down modification of the arctic air

[South Texas Storms]

I really need the cold air to hold off on reaching Houston for 10 more days. I'll win our annual forecast contest as long as IAH sees highs remain above the lower 50s and lows remain above the lower 30s. Come December 1, let the cold air come down! As of now it looks like I could lose the contest on the last day or two of the month...I sure hope not!

[HockeyTx82]

HockeyTx82 maybe not for that extended period, but its happening in real time, the ridge is there, models have consistently been underestimating the strength of that alaskan ridge, the cold is coming, its just a matter of how cold, something the global models are going to really struggle with

I hope your are right, but I've been on this board long enough to temper my hopes of the long range.

Lucy loves to visit us in the winter months.

[Stratton23]

And the 18z GFS is colder again, let the flip flopping commence!

[Ntxw]

And the 18z GFS is colder again, let the flip flopping commence!

I don't really see it as flip flopping, I don't think 240+hours out will pin it. Each run has a different orientation of ridge out west.

[Stratton23]

lol the 18z GFS had a wintry mix for east texas

[Brent]

2009 1976 and 1963. 1989 is too but it was dry cold. No thanks

[Cpv17]

:double:

2009 1976 and 1963. 1989 is too but it was dry cold. No thanks

https://i.ibb.co/pxNdP8z/D38-B258-E-3-C31-49-A2-8-C93-5-AF52-B19-B2-B2-1.jpg

We had about 3-4” of snow all the way down here in early Dec of 09. I remember that very well.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

And the 18z GFS is colder again, let the flip flopping commence!

I don't really see it as flip flopping, I don't think 240+hours out will pin it. Each run has a different orientation of ridge out west.

If this cold pattern materializes, I believe a winter storm will develop in the next few days on the models. Like you alluded to, depending on ridge orientation.

[Cpv17]

:double:

2009 1976 and 1963. 1989 is too but it was dry cold. No thanks

https://i.ibb.co/pxNdP8z/D38-B258-E-3-C31-49-A2-8-C93-5-AF52-B19-B2-B2-1.jpg

That EPO is crazy negative here, but it looks to be a quick shot of cold cuz I don’t see much of a -NAO here to lock it in.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

:double:

2009 1976 and 1963. 1989 is too but it was dry cold. No thanks

https://i.ibb.co/pxNdP8z/D38-B258-E-3-C31-49-A2-8-C93-5-AF52-B19-B2-B2-1.jpg

That EPO is crazy negative here, but it looks to be a quick shot of cold cuz I don’t see a -NAO here to lock it in.

The nao will be negative also

[Cpv17]

:double:

2009 1976 and 1963. 1989 is too but it was dry cold. No thanks

https://i.ibb.co/pxNdP8z/D38-B258-E-3-C31-49-A2-8-C93-5-AF52-B19-B2-B2-1.jpg

That EPO is crazy negative here, but it looks to be a quick shot of cold cuz I don’t see a -NAO here to lock it in.

The nao will be negative also

Yeah, after looking at the ensembles, temps stay below normal for quite a good while. Well at least on the GEFS. The EPS warms back up quickly.

[starsfan65]

:double:

2009 1976 and 1963. 1989 is too but it was dry cold. No thanks

https://i.ibb.co/pxNdP8z/D38-B258-E-3-C31-49-A2-8-C93-5-AF52-B19-B2-B2-1.jpg

That EPO is crazy negative here, but it looks to be a quick shot of cold cuz I don’t see a -NAO here to lock it in.

The nao will be negative also

The NAO is already Negative. Golf.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles keep the cold locked in through at least the 7th of december