Texas Spring 2023

[Brent]

Only a slight risk tomorrow or Wednesday. I hope to see some storms again. Been boring.

It mostly appears to me that most of the rain will be in Oklahoma over the next 7 days per the WPC.

Yeah, I'm now expecting up to 6 inches of rain, lol.

I'll believe it when I see it here but yeah I'm like the bullseye apparently it's been Tulsa's driest April on record so far

[Iceresistance]

The WPC QPF keeps going up in Oklahoma, someone is going to get dumped with 5+ inches of rain.

[bubba hotep]

Day 2 getting dicey for DFW

[rwfromkansas]

Saw graphics that the HRRR is all in on widespread severe for DFW tomorrow. I guess be careful what you wish for. We had to replace shingles in March during that 80 mph wind event.

[Cpv17]

Saw graphics that the HRRR is all in on widespread severe for DFW tomorrow. I guess be careful what you wish for. We had to replace shingles in March during that 80 mph wind event.

Well it won’t be boring tomorrow for you lol

[cycloneye]

[Iceresistance]

It's not often to see a WPC map that features Oklahoma as the bullseye in the states, goodness gracious.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/p168i-2.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

Saw graphics that the HRRR is all in on widespread severe for DFW tomorrow. I guess be careful what you wish for. We had to replace shingles in March during that 80 mph wind event.

Agreed, and a similar event would be a lot worse this time of year than it was back then. More leaves on the trees now means more trees would go down

[Cpv17]

I just checked the 12z HRRR. I can indeed confirm that it looks pretty bad for you central and north Texas folk tomorrow. Yikes!

[ElectricStorm]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10 hatched tornado area at some point for tomorrow. Some of these model runs are nasty, hopefully we don't see anything destructive.

[WacoWx]

What is the timing for the Metroplex?

[gpsnowman]

What is the timing for the Metroplex?

Probably around 5ish or thereafter.

[WacoWx]

TY

[EnnisTx]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10 hatched tornado area at some point for tomorrow. Some of these model runs are nasty, hopefully we don't see anything destructive.

I totally agree, looking more and more like this will be a significant severe weather event in North Texas.

[txtwister78]

I think for the DFW metro timing is going to be a big factor along with the progression of the frontal boundary. It's also possible storms developing tonight over southern Oklahoma near the river move into the DFW region overnight and work over the atmosphere a bit reducing the overall severe weather threat during the day on Wednesday. Some models show this while others aren't quite sold on this scenario. As it is most models keep DFW highs around 70 tomorrow or lower in afternoon depending on the progress of the frontal boundary.  

18z HRRR has shifted a bit south overall toward the Waco region (warm sector) in terms of explosive supercell development Wednesday afternoon into early evening, but this could change in future runs. Overall, still a lot to watch and folks should definitely be weather aware across that entire region tomorrow. Threat looks to shift south into the HC and AUS/SA corridor overnight into Thursday morning but hopefully with the loss of daytime heating storms will be more manageable then.

[cstrunk]

I'm really hoping my flight that is scheduled to arrive at 5:40 pm into Love Field makes it before storms do..

[bubba hotep]

I think for the DFW metro timing is going to be a big factor along with the progression of the frontal boundary. It's also possible storms developing tonight over southern Oklahoma near the river move into the DFW region overnight and work over the atmosphere a bit reducing the overall severe weather threat during the day on Wednesday. Some models show this while others aren't quite sold on this scenario. As it is most models keep DFW highs around 70 tomorrow or lower in afternoon depending on the progress of the frontal boundary.  

18z HRRR has shifted a bit south overall toward the Waco region (warm sector) in terms of explosive supercell development Wednesday afternoon into early evening, but this could change in future runs. Overall, still a lot to watch and folks should definitely be weather aware across that entire region tomorrow. Threat looks to shift south into the HC and AUS/SA corridor overnight into Thursday morning but hopefully with the loss of daytime heating storms will be more manageable then.

Yea, was going to post that; there is a pretty big southward shift on the HRRR with the overnight storms with them tracking more SE vs E and staying below the Red River. This probably works over the atmosphere and, depending on organization, an MCS would leave some subsidence in its wake.

[rwfromkansas]

There often is a last-minute shift, so will see how things evolve.

[Ntxw]

Models indicate dewpoint recovery to mid-60s tomorrow north of interstate 20. South of I-20 in the 70s where the best fuel and forcing may be.

Most should see at least 0.75-1 inch of rain.

[somethingfunny]

I am always reminded of the April 3 2012 event, when mesoscale outflow boundaries from overnight storms passing and collapsing nearby set the stage for rotating supercell development to focus along those residual boundaries.

We'll need to watch the wind shifts at various atmospheric levels closely tomorrow, along with any localized variations in cloud cover affecting CAPE. I'm sure some areas will underperform.due to subsidence, while other areas nearby could overperform if the boundaries can align.

It bears watching, but I'm often of the "wake me up when the sun comes out" school of storm preparation.

I think for the DFW metro timing is going to be a big factor along with the progression of the frontal boundary. It's also possible storms developing tonight over southern Oklahoma near the river move into the DFW region overnight and work over the atmosphere a bit reducing the overall severe weather threat during the day on Wednesday. Some models show this while others aren't quite sold on this scenario. As it is most models keep DFW highs around 70 tomorrow or lower in afternoon depending on the progress of the frontal boundary.  

18z HRRR has shifted a bit south overall toward the Waco region (warm sector) in terms of explosive supercell development Wednesday afternoon into early evening, but this could change in future runs. Overall, still a lot to watch and folks should definitely be weather aware across that entire region tomorrow. Threat looks to shift south into the HC and AUS/SA corridor overnight into Thursday morning but hopefully with the loss of daytime heating storms will be more manageable then.