Texas Fall-2016

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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#941 Postby aggiecutter » Sun Nov 27, 2016 9:39 am

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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#942 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Nov 27, 2016 9:45 am

The Yukon and NW Territories of NW Canada are currently experiencing -20C temperatures. The extended range reliable computer guidance including the various ensemble schemes suggest -40+Celius temperatures will settled South into North America and our source Regions prior to mid December from Eurasia and Siberia. If the those longer range models are correct, there may be some -20F temperatures across the Rockies and possibly settling into the Plains around the 10th of December, +/- a day or so.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#943 Postby dhweather » Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:16 am

If this happens, DIE BUGS DIE !!! :ggreen:

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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#944 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:52 am

12 GFS has a 1065+ mb high in NW Canada :eek: ghosts of Christmas' past? (1983)
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#945 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:15 pm

Ntxw wrote:12 GFS has a 1065+ mb high in NW Canada :eek: ghosts of Christmas' past? (1983)

It is supposed to be 70 degrees the next 3 days then it will cool down starting Wednesday.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#946 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:18 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:12 GFS has a 1065+ mb high in NW Canada :eek: ghosts of Christmas' past? (1983)

It is supposed to be 70 degrees the next 3 days then it will cool down starting Wednesday.


It will not be 70 the first week of December. Not even close. Will be a distant memory.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#947 Postby TarrantWx » Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:18 pm

Ntxw wrote:12 GFS has a 1065+ mb high in NW Canada :eek: ghosts of Christmas' past? (1983)

:double:
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What was the 500mb ridge strength over Alaska during Dec 1983?
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#948 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:12 GFS has a 1065+ mb high in NW Canada :eek: ghosts of Christmas' past? (1983)

It is supposed to be 70 degrees the next 3 days then it will cool down starting Wednesday.


It will not be 70 the first week of December. Not even close. Will be a distant memory.
I'm talking about Today, Tomorrow, and Tuesday.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#949 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:25 pm

TarrantWx wrote:
Ntxw wrote:12 GFS has a 1065+ mb high in NW Canada :eek: ghosts of Christmas' past? (1983)

:double:
Image

What was the 500mb ridge strength over Alaska during Dec 1983?


Greater than 580. If that were to happen I don't think the models would see such godly numbers until up close. But still even a slightly less version of a similar set up would still flood North America into the icebox

We are pouring a lot of deep cold into western Canada. It hasn't been that cold there since 2013/2014. The benefit of building it over in Asia the past several weeks. We've been waiting for the Pacific to dump it over with cross polar flow.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#950 Postby texas1836 » Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:30 pm

It depends on where you're at. North of Dallas (McKinney), we'll be in the 60's and 50's.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#951 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:38 pm

Wow, the GFS really wants me to freeze my butt off before I come back home to Texas again. It's 384 hours but if I did see temperatures near 0 here that's only about 5 degrees warmer than what I experienced all of last winter. :cold:
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#952 Postby Portastorm » Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:45 pm

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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#953 Postby TarrantWx » Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:57 pm

This is a long way out, but there must be a very strong signal for these temperature departures to be showing in the ensembles. For what it's worth, the last few runs of the ensembles show similar temperature departures in the same time period. Looks like we're in for a couple fun weeks of model watching :D

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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#954 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Nov 27, 2016 2:27 pm

What is the timeline for storms hitting DFW tonight?
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#955 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 27, 2016 2:28 pm

starsfan65 wrote:What is the timeline for storms hitting DFW tonight?


Midnight to 6am, heaviest should be between 3am and 6am for DFW
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#956 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Nov 27, 2016 2:46 pm

Ntxw wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:What is the timeline for storms hitting DFW tonight?


Midnight to 6am, heaviest should be between 3am and 6am for DFW

We are in for a rough night tonight.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#957 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Nov 27, 2016 3:00 pm

Forecasted high today was 70. Currently 59 in Frisco at the moment. Don't think we will reach 70 this afternoon.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#958 Postby Portastorm » Sun Nov 27, 2016 4:50 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Wow, the GFS really wants me to freeze my butt off before I come back home to Texas again. It's 384 hours but if I did see temperatures near 0 here that's only about 5 degrees warmer than what I experienced all of last winter. :cold:


We can all have our fun posting various operational runs which show eye opening temps and/or precip, but we cannot deny that even the ensembles from about 192 hours out are in unanimous agreement now about Arctic high pressure pumping down into a western CONUS trough. If the source regions are cold enough, it's going to "happen" down here in Texas at some point shortly thereafter.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#959 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 27, 2016 8:08 pm

SLGT risk for the northern DFW metro tonight including Denton and Collin Counties. Main threat wind
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#960 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Nov 27, 2016 8:15 pm

Brent wrote:SLGT risk for the northern DFW metro tonight including Denton and Collin Counties. Main threat wind
That's north of DFW.
.
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