Texas Spring-2014

[aggiecutter]

12z GFS QPF:

[gto67]

Congrats South Texas Storms! I give up on how to make the font blue. Its blue but you can't see the blue. LOL

[Rgv20]

Congrats STS or should I say STS

Hopefully all of the RGV gets a good drink out of this!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
146 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

TXZ248>257-130100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
146 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION TO
GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FIRST OVER ZAPATA...
STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID VALLEY
AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALING 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS LIKE THESE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN
ADDITION TO LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING.

RESIDENTS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE URGED
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
THROUGH NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...AND THE WEBSITE OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE...LOCATED AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...
http://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEAT ... SVILLE.GOV

AND ON OUR TWITTER FEED...
@NWSBROWNSVILLE

$$

[Ntxw]

Slowly moving east, should intensify on the way. Some individual storm motion is NNE



EWX sure is bullish

[Ntxw]

Radar estimates showing 1-3 inches very quick

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC143-221-367-425-122130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0011.140512T1924Z-140512T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
224 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ERATH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
HOOD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SOMERVELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3
MILES NORTHEAST OF WILLOW PARK TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
STEPHENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 430 PM CDT.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE...ANNETTA...RENO...OAK TRAIL SHORES...ALEDO...GRANBURY...
DINOSAUR VALLEY STATE PARK AND GLEN ROSE.

[aggiecutter]

HRRR projected rainfall totals through 2 in the morning:

[Ntxw]

If you end up not satisfied with the current rain totals, don't fret. Models and overall guidance is pointing towards another well defined slow moving trough after the atmosphere recovers from the cool down. Ridge in the southeast with gulf inflow towards the southern plains, and SW flow aloft from the Pacific keeps these rainfall threats beyond just this current system.

[aggiecutter]

Latest from the WPC:

[ravyrn]

HRRR projected rainfall totals through 2 in the morning:

http://s269.photobucket.com/user/Photo44_album/media/HRRRrain_zps924b1c50.png.html

Too bad the highland lakes are all west of the heavier rainfall I placed a blue circle on top of them on this map. Austin and San Antonio have a chance to see some significant flash flooding.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Rgv20]

Updated forecast just came out for my area from the NWS in Brownsville. Really looking forward to the rain!



Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 10pm and 1am. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds and heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 76. Breezy, with a southeast wind 11 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 83. East southeast wind 7 to 11 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

[davidiowx]

Looks like I will miss most of the heavier stuff It would be awesome if the front progressed further south before stalling!

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks everyone! I'm so happy and thankful to finally achieve one of my lifelong goals of becoming a professional meteorologist!

The radar is currently lighting up like a Christmas tree across the region. I agree with the WPC QPF forecast as this slow moving system has a lot of moisture to work with. I think San Antonio, Austin, and surrounding areas have a pretty good chance of getting over 2 inches of rain in the next 36 hours. Bring on the rain!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[TheProfessor]

Any chance the the new band west of the first one gets as big as the first one?

[aggiecutter]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
318 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS IN ITS BEGINNING STAGES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND N TX THIS AFTN PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO
UNFOLD AS THE FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE THE FRONT OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TRAINING
OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITHIN THE LAST 7 DAYS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING TO MUCH OF E TX/SE OK/SW AR. IT APPEARS THAT THIS THREAT
MAY BEGIN EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE PUSHED THE START TIME
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP TO 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
THE FRONT OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFT WILL BECOME MORE
ISENTROPIC AS WE LOSE THE SFC FORCING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DECREASING RAIN RATES. DESPITE THIS...
A CONTINUING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE SEEN DUE TO THE
OVERNIGHT RAINS...AND THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO QPF...PAINTING A WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCHES /WITH HIGHER
ISOLD TOTALS LIKELY/ ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...TAPERING OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SE.

[gboudx]

Any chance the the new band west of the first one gets as big as the first one?

I would think not, since the front band is probably robbing the 2nd of inflow. But this 1st area looks like it may be expanding it's coverage and is slowing down.

[WeatherGuesser]

Meanwhile, I think these guys could use some of that rain:
Texas Panhandle Wildfire Destroys 89 Homes

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile, I think these guys could use some of that rain:
Texas Panhandle Wildfire Destroys 89 Homes

It's truly a sad story. These folks have every right to complain about the drought. Us in the eastern half complain a lot about our water woes in drought but because our annual averages are significantly wetter than that region, even in extreme droughts our rainfalls are deluges compared to their averages. Just like a drought in Louisiana is still more rain than our (north and central TX) normal years. New Orleans driest year would be one of the wettest for us. Their deficits when in extreme droughts often equate to no rain at all or very little in west Texas and the panhandle.

[ravyrn]

What's the criteria for a flash flood warning out of NWS Shreveport? We got a severe thunderstorm warning in Jacksonville for rain and lightning, but the outer lanes of both north and southbound US 69 have half a foot of water covering them in some places as well as flooded side streets? I went to run an errand before the storm hit, but got delayed and was driving when the sky was pouring. I have to say, I haven't seen rain that heavy in some time. I can't remember the last time I saw rain that heavy. It reminded me a lot of Tropical Storm Allison from back in '01.

EDIT: After reading the the complete warning issued, I have to give props to NWS Shreveport. There was a lighting and they made an excellent point in their warning:

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

[South Texas Storms]

8 pm radar update: The line of heavy rain and thunderstorms continues to move slowly southeast across the region. Beneficial rainfall is falling over much of central Texas!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ravyrn]

Slightly out of topic for discussion of this thread, but holy moly at the rainfall in Vernon Parish today! It's just on the other side of the Sabine, so I deem it merits noting that's a lot of rain in a localized area!