2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[Flyinman]

Just over 2" so far today. Yesterday had a downpour that dropped just under .5". Nice 2 day total so far. The very nice thing about the rain today is that is has been raining since 9:30 am and just a nice steady rain. Also no sunshine so it has soaked in best it can into this concrete soil. Can we be so lucky to have another rain event like this next week???? We will see what wins...High or the Pacific storms.

[southerngale]

Wow... nothing over here. I haven't been online and didn't realize how much rain was falling west of here. Congrats, guys!! Enjoy it... it's a beautiful thing.

Hopefully, it will spread eastward to include us as well.

[Flyinman]

A little happy this way! Just shy of 3" for the day! Wow, sure needed this. Rained for almost 9 hours straight. I am glad it was not any heavier as this could have been a severe flood event. Sad to think I received 1/3 of the year to date total in one day.

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: I notice rain pouring down at my house!!! *vb swoons and faints* And I notice rain moving in from the West also with another disturbance behind it!!! Have I drowned and gone to heaven? This is the first time in over a year that I have been awakened by a thunderstorm. What a glorious awakening it was!! So far since last nights rains we have had 1.13".

Now up over 2" !!! Radar appears to show a stalled or very slow moving trough which is setting up training over W Houston. Not complaining unless we start to flood and that doesn't look likely. This is more rain than I have at one time since January!!! It will also be the first month since February in which we have had 2" or rain or more. KEEP ON POURING!!!(and it is)

Update at midnight-total for today 3.2" + 1.13" from yesterday evening=4.33" in the last 24 hours!!!

[jasons2k]

I almost can't believe it!! I measured 2.10" at the house - the most storm total in over a year!! Yippee!!

[Tireman4]

Woo Hoo. Rain, yes rain fell here. The elders were dancin, I tell ya.

[jasons2k]

I woke-up this morning, left for work, and noticed everything was wet like it rained overnight.

I wasn't expecting much, but to my amazement I found .60" when I just checked the gauge! October has been a very good month so far in the rain department

[southerngale]

Well, unsurprisingly, my area of Texas worsened, but some parts of Texas saw improvement!




Btw, when the Houston area got all that rain a few days ago, although there were a few isolated spots here that saw more, I only got a few sprinkles.

[vbhoutex]

I woke-up this morning, left for work, and noticed everything was wet like it rained overnight.

I wasn't expecting much, but to my amazement I found .60" when I just checked the gauge! October has been a very good month so far in the rain department

Not a drop here, but the weather sure is beautiful, even if it is still warmer than "normal"(whatever that is).

And Kelly, not to be nasty, but it is about time the rainfall amounts were reversed between our locations. Hoepfully from now on we will both have nice amounts of rain. I am allowed to DREAM right?

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff:

Strong cold front will move across TX tonight and early Tuesday

Fire Weather Watch in effect for all areas on Tuesday, with Red Flag Warnings likely

Extreme to critical fire weather day expected Tuesday and possibly Wednesday

Strong cold front with a good shot of cold air moving southward through the plains this morning as the upper level pattern amplifies across the western US carving out a deepening downstream central US trough. Cold front is currently moving through the panhandle of TX and will reach the TX coast by mid morning on Tuesday. Impressive pressure rises behind the front will result in a period of very strong winds especially near the coast Tuesday morning with the frontal passage. Winds of 40-50mph will be possible along the middle coast into S TX as the front passes. A hot and humid day today will be replaced with strong cold air advection with temperatures falling at least 10-15 degrees with the frontal passage. Expect temperatures to start Tuesday in the lower 60’s with strong NW winds and only recover into the lower to mid 70’s by afternoon. Winds will remain strong Tuesday night so that will keep lows from bottoming out, but will still see widespread 40’s…it will feel cool with the winds. High pressure builds nearly overhead on Wednesday afternoon and winds will go calm after sunset on Wednesday night. With forecasted dewpoints in the mid to upper 30’s, overnight lows will tumble into the low to mid 40’s most locations by Thursday AM. A few protected and typically cool locations could see a little frost Thursday AM.

Guidance is showing a thin line of showers with the front early Tuesday and this appears reasonable given the strong forcing. There is little deep moisture to work with, so do not expect much rainfall, maybe a .10 of an inch at best. More favorable conditions for rain appear to be across east and NE TX where thunderstorms will be possible, but the SW extent will be greatly limited by lacking moisture and strong mid level capping.

Fire Weather:

Big concern will be fire weather Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Near critical to critical conditions appear likely on Tuesday as very strong winds and lower RH combine with dead/dry fuels from the ongoing drought. Winds will rapidly increase into the 15-25mph sustained range by mid morning Tuesday with gust to 30-40mph by early afternoon. Winds of this magnitude greatly increases the threat of power line starts from tree limbs rubbing lines or lines arcing in the wind…this is similar to the Labor Day weekend starts of several of those fires. Afternoon RH will fall to less than 30% across the entire region.

While fine fuels (grasses) have greened some with the recent rainfall, the larger ladder and canopy fuels remain extremely dry and capable of fast and hot burning. ERC values remain very high over much of eastern TX with pines that have dried. Greener finer fuels may help mitigate some of the potential starts, but any fire that does get started and gets off the ground into the ladder and tree canopies will burn very quickly given the low RN and very strong winds. Threat will be high for crowning and long lasting crown runs especially in pine areas. Ground operations will be extremely difficult given the high potential for rapid forward motions, forward spotting, and breaching on containment lines. Air operations will be affected by the strong winds and some aircraft may be grounded.

95L:

An area of low pressure now over the SE Gulf of Mexico continues to become better organized and a tropical cyclone appears to be forming. Deep convection has developed near/over the center with decent upper level outflow in all directions. The system is moving toward the NE at around 10mph and this motion will continue bringing a possible tropical storm to the SW coast of FL in the next 24-36 hours.

[Ptarmigan]

Red tide bloom largest in a decade
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas ... 223455.php

Droughts cause red tide for coastal Texas.

[southerngale]

Boy is it windy outside! And chilly!!

This past Friday, apparently there had been enough rain (or so they thought) in Hardin County that they thought they could lift the burn ban for the weekend, for the first time in months. A lot of Hardin County is "in the country" and there's a lot of trash piled up, waiting to be burned. Anyway, within a few minutes of the temporary lift, 1/2 dozen fire departments were called out to residents' homes where fires had rapidly gotten out of control. The burn ban was immediately reinstated. I've never seen anything like it. After that, I'm not sure how much rain will have to fall before they'll be comfortable lifting it, even temporarily.

Be careful out there today. I'm worried about careless smokers.

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH ALREADY VERY DRY GROUND
FUELS...THERE WILL BE A HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY WILD FIRE TO SPREAD QUICKLY OUT OF CONTROL. WINDS WILL
DECREASE IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL RISE IN HUMIDITY
VALUES. HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN.

LAZ027-030-031-041-042-051-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-182100-
/O.UPG.KLCH.FW.A.0002.111018T1200Z-111019T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.FW.W.0001.111018T1500Z-111019T0200Z/
VERNON-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-CAMERON-TYLER-
HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
506 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR VERY DRY GROUND FUELS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED FIRE WEATHER AREAS...TYLER...HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...NORTHERN
JASPER...SOUTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...AND SOUTHERN NEWTON
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND VERNON PARISH IN CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AND ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...AND CAMERON PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

* WIND...WINDS BECOMING NORTH BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

* GROUND FUELS...VERY DRY WITH KEETCH-BYRAM READINGS OVER 600.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS BANNED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND VERY GROUND FUELS WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.



-------------------------------


Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
405 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER
GUSTS BY THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-182100-
/O.CON.KLCH.WI.Y.0024.111018T1500Z-111019T0200Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-HARDIN-
JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...
CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...
CAMERON...HACKBERRY...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...
STEPHENSVILLE...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY
405 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...BEGINNING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL
AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THEN BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

* WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND NORTH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 34 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

WINDS OVER LOCAL WATERWAYS COULD BE 5 MPH HIGHER THAN OVER LAND.
SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

[southerngale]

More warnings issued today... Red Flag Warning and an Extreme Fire Danger for tomorrow. This is just so creepy to me. I am not used to these, living in Southeast Texas. Generally, until recently, rainfall is not a problem. Well, if it is, it's because there's usually too much of it. These fire threats are scary.

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...

.STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP THIS MORNING AND COMBINED
WITH EXTREMELY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
FIRE DANGER TODAY.

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-192100-
/O.CON.KLCH.FW.W.0002.111019T1400Z-111020T0000Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-HARDIN-
JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
628 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* AFFECTED FIRE WEATHER AREAS...TYLER...HARDIN...JEFFERSON...
ORANGE...NORTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
AND SOUTHERN NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... AND
VERNON...RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES PARISHES IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
AND ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...AND
CAMERON PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... AND EVANGELINE...ST.
LANDRY...ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY PARISHES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

* WIND...NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH AND WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT.

* GROUND FUELS...VERY DRY WITH KEETCH-BYRAM READINGS OVER 600.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP MAY SPREAD QUICKLY. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS BANNED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

24



----------------------------------------------



Extreme Fire Danger

FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180-201-259>262-202300-

FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
130 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

...EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF RELAXING
WINDS...A STRONG OCTOBER SUN...AND SINKING AIR WILL FORCE THE
HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET.

THE MID-AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 10 AND 15 PERCENT
...WITH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AT THE COAST.

CONSEQUENTLY...GROUND FUELS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT...MAKING FOR EASY
IGNITION. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.

$$

TRARES

[PTrackerLA]

Widespread frost on rooftops this morning, was pretty shocked to see that on October 20th! Lows were in the 38-42 degree range across the area. Very nice October weather the next few days as temperatures moderate. Hopefully we can get some rain before the next front mid-week although the lawn will be going dormant soon anyway.

[Turtle]

Any idea why there were no frost advisories in NE Texas / NW Louisiana last night? It got down to 32 here and a few cities got to 35.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Next strong cold front forecast for the middle to end of this week with a better chance of rainfall.

Passage of a strong short wave over NE TX yesterday with damaging thunderstorms over the DFW area Saturday night has left behind weak ridging in its wake. Weak southerly flow continues to bring muggy Gulf air mass inland across the region with shallow ground fog in some areas this morning. This will remain the story through early Wednesday before the next upper level trough and cold front move across the state in a now entrenched fall pattern.

Upper air pattern will amplify again allowing a cold Canadian air mass to surge southward down the Rockies the middle of this week reaching TX Wednesday. Timing of the advancement of this cold front and the upper trough remains question with the ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET models all showing a slower more cut-off upper level trough with the front due into SE TX Thursday evening compared to the NAM which has the fastest more progressive less cut-off solution with the front to the coast late Wednesday and the GFS showing an in between solution early Thursday. Given the type of cold air mass would tend to favor the NAM with the actual front bleeding southward ahead of the upper trough as cold air masses tend to advance southward quicker than models suggest. However I am leaning toward the slower ejection of the upper trough more into Thursday which spells a period of post frontal clouds and rainfall as warm moist Gulf air is lifted over the shallow cold air mass. Timing of the actual front is also difficult, but would expect a passage sometime Thursday across the area.

Most rainfall looks to be focused behind the front in the region of post frontal isentropic lift as the upper trough advances into the region Thursday/Thursday night. Should the NAM solution be more correct, there would be little post frontal rainfall. Will fine tune rain amounts over the next few days, but a widespread .25 to .75 of an inch appears possible with this system.

Other big headline will be the cold air with this trough with highs falling on Thursday and highs on Friday likely remaining in the low to mid 60’s. With skies clearing and winds calming Friday night lows Saturday morning will likely fall into the lower 40’s and possibly upper 30’s.

Fire Weather:

No major fire weather concerns this period as RH remains high and wind light. Frontal passage on Thursday will bring strong north winds, but wetting rainfall looks possible and if rains occur no fire weather concerns are expected. Very dry air mass will build into the region next weekend, but winds should be light.

[southerngale]

Hopefully, we get a little rain later this week. The drought has worsened here and the grass is really brown. When will this end?


Latest Drought Monitor

[PTrackerLA]

Very dry here as well. Only about .05" officially since October 1st although I recorded a whopping .20" with the frontal passage last week at my house. I've started watering again just to keep the shrubs strong for winter. The grass can do what it wants it's gonna die from frost within the next month anyway . I miss rainy days, hopefully things change in November???

[horselattitudesfarm]

A little off topic but when I saw a strange red glow in the sky last night I had no idea it was the Aurora Borealis until I saw the video on Accuweather this morning. I live in the Dallas area and this is the first time I ever remember it coming this far south. They said people in Alabama could see it.

[vbhoutex]

Today's email from Jeff:

Strong cold front heading for Texas

Chance for rainfall increasing Thursday

Significant weather change from warm and dry to cold and somewhat wet over the next 24-36 hours as a strong Canadian front moves across TX. Cold front is currently located over the TX panhandle this morning and is moving southward and should reach into central TX overnight and SE TX on Thursday. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass is in place and deeper moisture will be transported into the region starting later today into early Thursday. Even with the deeper moisture the mid levels remain fairly dry and the coverage of rainfall along and behind the front will be widespread but with fairly meager amounts.

Strong front should slowly move across the area Thursday as the shallow air mass undercuts the warmer air mass. A few showers and maybe a thunderstorms will be possible along the leading edge of the front. Better chances for rainfall come behind the boundary as the warm moist air mass is forced up and over the cooler surface dome by a lagging upper level trough to the west Thursday night into early Friday. General light to at times moderate rainfall will be possible post front. Total accumulations of .25-.50 of an inch is likely with a few isolated locations possibility seeing 1 inch of rainfall.

Decent cold air advection will onset post front with gusty NW winds of 20-25mph and a rapid temperature fall during the afternoon on Thursday. Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the 80’s and fall quickly into the 60’s behind the front and even into the upper 50’s around College Station by late Thursday afternoon. Cold air will continue to advect into the area Thursday night with light rainfall and gusty winds making it feel chilly.

Starting to look like it may be hard to break out the frontal inversion on Friday with moisture trapped in the lowest levels so this may linger clouds much longer than currently expected which will result in significantly lower temperatures on Friday. Current highs near 70 could be a good 10 degrees too warm if clouds linger much of the day.

Clear skies will be in place by Friday evening and with a cold and dry air mass in place lows will fall into the low to mid 40’s for most areas. A cool October weekend is in store for the region with lows in the 40’s and highs in the lower 70’s.

Forecast models diverge once again early next week with the ECMWF showing a potent upper level low trough driving across TX and OK while the GFS shows a much flatten pattern. ECMWF is a lonely outlier with its strong solution which could bring a bout a severe weather to TX, but will side with the weaker and more progressive GFS solution and keep a generally dry and slow warming trend from the late weekend into early next week.