Texas Spring 2026

[TomballEd]

Now that the morning fog and low clouds are burning off and temps are approaching 80F, isolated diurnal showers are developing in SETX. Latest HRRR shows showers filling in, with afternoon rainfall amounts generally light but with some 3-5 inch lollipops in the area. Model shows some lightning but nothing intense. But plenty of moisture. I hope my house gets a couple of inches before I get home, yesterday the rain waited until I was almost home.

[rwfromkansas]

The Texas part of Saturday and Sunday's risk days are going away. What a surprise!

[Cpv17]

The Texas part of Saturday and Sunday's risk days are going away. What a surprise!

I could be wrong, but I don’t think you get much severe weather when there’s a developing Niño.

[gpsnowman]

The Texas part of Saturday and Sunday's risk days are going away. What a surprise!

I could be wrong, but I don’t think you get much severe weather when there’s a developing Niño.

I wouldn't mind another day or half day of steady soaking rains like last weekend. Big thunderstorms will get here eventually. The almost daily cloud cover has been nice to keep temps down each day. It's still foggy at this hour in DFW.

[Stratton23]

Meh, global models arent really that enthused with rainfall chances after this upcoming sunday or so, doesnt look that active to me

[Cpv17]

Meh, global models arent really that enthused with rainfall chances after this upcoming sunday or so, doesnt look that active to me

Yep and today’s CPC forecast reflects that.

[rwfromkansas]

I think a break was expected for a few weeks before reloading. It's not going to just rain nonstop. But, we are moving in the right direction.

[txtwister78]

Unbelievably awesome for the area and yet not surprising either considering the signals in March that were in place as discussed despite some doubt by others.

More than just daily model watching here at play. Trust the pattern and I believe it will continue to be active going into May so good news is more of the same likely on the way.

 https://x.com/i/status/2047052221339115747

[wxman22]

Pattern looks active up here to me. Even past the weekend. And El Nino's especially in Texas can be very active for severe weather. But you don't usually get the big outbreaks during El Ninos. It tends to be smaller severe weather events that add up over time due to a high frequency. When the pattern is mainly driven by the subtropical jet you tend to get weaker cyclogenesis which is a contributing factor to smaller scale severe events.

[Cpv17]

Pattern looks active up here to me. Even past the weekend. and El Nino's especially in Texas can be very active for severe weather. But you don't usually get the big outbreaks during El Ninos. It tends to be smaller severe weather events that add up over time.

Not down here. Only 20% chances after today for the next 10 days. Then it looks like a cool front is coming in to kick off May.

[wxman22]

El Nino's can be very good for storms and rainfall in the southern plains and south.But nationally you do tend yo get less severe weather overall. Especially in the North. That's what makes it even more interesting how active the severe weather season has been in the Great Lakes Region. Though technically we are not in an El Nino yet we're in Neutral.

[ElectricStorm]

I see 4/19/23 brought up quite a bit by plains chasers every time there's a dryline environment with capping concerns and most of the time the comparisons aren't all that valid but it's actually very good analog for tomorrow (currently #2 analog per CIPS)

Very sharp dryline, potent environment, and strong EML. Environment wise, modeled soundings for tomorrow actually look better than Sunday with much better low level moisture (could easily change though since those are globals). IF something can actually break through strong tornadoes will be very possible but with relatively weak forcing I think it is still probably unlikely.

Full CIPS analog list here, some decent days and also some cap busts. Exactly what you would expect for a day like this.

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS//ANALOG/DF ... map=thbSVR

[txtwister78]

Hi-res daily model watching basically from Thursday into the weekend for central into N TX (NE TX Sat- Sunday) .

Globals won't see it on these highly conditional based days with limited forcing as mentioned.

But if you can get one these dryline maximized heat induced storms to fire along it look out because instability won't be a problem.

[Brent]

The last few days have been amazing and I know there's all this hype and talk about the weekend(though it looks highly conditional to me) but I can't stop looking at the front the models are showing to start May I mean that would be something after how consistently warm it's been for so long

Maybe a sign of the times ahead with El Nino coming on strong hopefully

[TomballEd]

CB all around yesterday, essentially no rain except for random very fat raindrops. There were a couple of severe warnings in nearby counties, almost wondering if random hail stones blew out from the storms NW of here and melted on the way down.

[Cpv17]

CB all around yesterday, essentially no rain except for random very fat raindrops. There were a couple of severe warnings in nearby counties, almost wondering if random hail stones blew out from the storms NW of here and melted on the way down.

Idk about you, but I keep getting a bunch of small rain events at my house. A quarter inch here and a half inch there. All the heavy stuff keeps missing me. I’ve still managed to pick up 4” this month so I’m not complaining much.

[wxman22]

I don’t think there’s gonna be too much here this weekend in NW Texas.Next week and beyond looks interesting though.

[txtwister78]

FV3 and RRFS example of the highly conditional setup that will be in place next few days across the region.

Dryline initiation without much forcing available. Hit or miss basically (mostly miss) but as mentioned yesterday if one or two develops instability is such that big hailers possible.

[vbhoutex]

CB all around yesterday, essentially no rain except for random very fat raindrops. There were a couple of severe warnings in nearby counties, almost wondering if random hail stones blew out from the storms NW of here and melted on the way down.

Idk about you, but I keep getting a bunch of small rain events at my house. A quarter inch here and a half inch there. All the heavy stuff keeps missing me. I’ve still managed to pick up 4” this month so I’m not complaining much.

6.48" at my home in Cypress near 529/99 in the last 10 days. MUCH needed, but a break from the heavier rains would be nice.

[wxman22]

Watch the frontal boundary next week. Somebody may get some heavy rain and severe weather from it as cyclogenisis takes place. The ICON is the most aggressive model so far.