Texas Summer 2019

[weatherdude1108]

Oh wow. This morning's discussion is for the dogs.

But the silver lining here is that high temperature records are forecast to be below daily records this weekend.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 060840
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
340 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
One last day for a low chance of isolated afternoon and early evening
showers and storms. Best chances will be across the southeast CWA as
well as the Hill Country. Dry conditions are expected on Wednesday.
Warm today and Wednesday, with high temperatures into the upper 90s
across the Hill Country, upper 90s to 102 along and east of I-35 and
I-37, and 103-106 degrees along the Rio Grande and southwest CWA. A
few locations today across the southern and eastern CWA could briefly
reach Heat Advisory criteria. We will handle this with a Special
Weather Statement for today, and save Heat Advisories for later into
the week as heat index values and air temperatures peak.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The upper level ridge is forecast to expand southeast into the
region Wednesday and Thursday, with the 595dm high becoming centered
near South Central Texas Friday through the weekend. 1000-500mb
thickness values peak Friday through the weekend and so will the
heat. NAEFS 500mb heights, as well as 700mb and 850mb temperatures,
are advertised to be in the 90-97th percentile for the 1979-2009
climatology period for this time of year, indicating a stronger than
normal ridge and potential for a prolonged heat wave. We have raised
forecast high temps slightly from previous package. By Friday into
the weekend air temperatures are currently forecast to range from
around 100 across the Hill Country, 100 to 104 along and east of
I-35 and I-37, and 104-108 degrees along the Rio Grande and
southwest CWA. Heat index values exceeding 110 degrees are possible
across the southeast CWA, with 105 to 110 elsewhere. Heat Advisories
appear likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and hot conditions are forecast Wednesday through the weekend.
Minimum RH values around 25 to 35 percent are forecast each
afternoon, with some wind gusts around 15 to 20 mph in some areas
during the afternoon and evening hours. The combination of these
weather conditions, combined with short-term drought stressed fuels
in some areas, will result in a series of elevated fire weather days
Wednesday through Friday.&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures are currently forecast to be a couple degrees
below daily records this weekend.

[JMoses3419]

Fuuuuun. Not looking forward to this heat. 100s should even make it into OKC this weekend, but you guys can keep that 105-110° down there.

[Rgv20]

Aghh all this week Heat Index values should be pushing 111+ down here

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
306 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The 500 mb ridging over
the Desert SW will gradually build east over the RGV and the TX
coastline throughout the short term period. The deeper layer
moisture will steadily diminish throughout Wed Night and the atms
should stabilize even more allowing for only single digit pops to
prevail. The sea breeze will likely develop tomorrow afternoon, but
the decent PGF will maintain a pretty decent S-SE low level flow
which will tend to limit the westward progress of the sea breeze. As
the ridging increases, expect the overall August heat to continue
and will go near or slightly above the model blends for high temps
for Wed. The expected heat index values for Wed afternoon will
likely push to near or higher than the 111 mark. So another Heat
Advisory will be possible for portions of the RGV and Deep South TX
tomorrow.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): A very robust 595dam plus
H5 ridge will reside across the central states through the long
term period. The higher heights/thicknesses will lead to above
average max/min temperatures through the entire period. With the
subsidence aloft, expect dry conditions despite a easterly flow
aloft and southerly flow at the surface.

Although the weather will largely be quiet in terms of
precip, nonprecip hazards will be possible. First concern will be
the heat index values. Heat indices will approach advisory
criteria each day. We`ll likely be looking at a long stretch of
heat related products, especially where humidity remains high
along and east of the Hwy281/I69C corridor. At the surface, winds
will also increase during the daylight hours, especially with the
thermal low upstream and subtropical high across the eastern Gulf.


West of the Hwy281/I69C, enough mixing will take place to drop
dewpoints allowing for some fire weather concerns, especially
during the afternoon hours Fri, Sat, Sun, and possibly into early
next week. In these areas, you`ll have a combination of dry/cured
fuels, sufficient 20ft winds, and of course the aforementioned low
relative humidity values. This will likely be confined to Zapata,
Jim Hogg, and Starr Counties, but can`t rule out the possibility
of critical fire weather concerns across western Hidalgo and
Brooks Counties. In summary, hot, dry, and breezy conditions
through early next week...at least.

[weatherdude1108]

Lived here in Texas since I was a little boy. These first two weeks of August (typically hottest and driest in normal years) in Texas are the worst. You get used to it by expecting it, but It really SUCKS. Fall can't get here soon enough imo. Patience patience patience.....

[rwfromkansas]

I hate August in Texas, and not just because I go back to work. Lol

[Brent]

I hate August in Texas, and not just because I go back to work. Lol

You a teacher?

[rwfromkansas]

Yes, journalism, yearbook, video etc.

I hate August in Texas, and not just because I go back to work. Lol

You a teacher?

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 070834
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
334 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge centered over New
Mexico/West Texas with anticyclonic flow over Texas. At the surface,
high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA
were from the southeast. The upper pattern while not exactly blocked,
will not progress a whole lot during this period. The center of the
ridge will move slowly to the east into West Texas. The surface high
will also remain in place. It will be hot and dry with high
temperatures near or above 100 degrees across most of the area
outside of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Heat index values
will exceed 105 in many places. We will issue a Heat Advisory for the
counties along and east of I-35 and Dimmit and Maverick. Heat index
will reach or exceed 108 degrees this afternoon in this area. We
likely issue another advisory Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The upper level ridge will continue to move slowly to the east
through this period. The surface high will also remain in place and
we don`t expect any significant change in the weather. As the upper
ridge creeps to the east high temperatures will creep upward a
degree or two by Sunday. Then they should level off or drop a bit. We
will likely have heat advisory conditions each day over some portion
of the CWA outside of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Limited rainfall throughout the month of July has contributed to
additional curing of fuels. Persistent hot and dry conditions and
breezy winds will produce elevated fire weather conditions through
the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On average this is the hottest time of the year in South Central
Texas. We are not forecasting any record high temperatures, but we
may be close. Here are the record highs for the next few days.

Record High Temperatures:

San Antonio Austin Austin Del Rio
Bergstrom
Aug 7 104 (2013) 108 (2003) 106 (2003) 106 (1964)
Aug 8 104 (2013) 110 (2003) 108 (2003) 105 (2003)
Aug 9 106 (1953) 106 (2011) 106 (1962) 108 (2003)
Aug 10 105 (1962) 107 (2012) 107 (1953) 107 (1953)
Aug 11 106 (1936) 105 (2015) 105 (1969) 106 (2012)

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[Portastorm]

August 2019 in Texas: Return of the Death Ridge.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

August 2019 in Texas: Return of the Death Ridge.

Summer is an actual, disease ridden, cyclops whore.

Summer

[CaptinCrunch]

I rather have the heat at the end of summer vs all summer long. Fact is that the sunrise is getting later, and sunset earlier plus the average last 100 degree day in Aug 24th.

Aug 7th sunrise and sunset - 6:45am - 8:20pm
Sept 1st sunrise and sunset - 7:01am - 7:52pm
Oct 1st sunrise and sunset - 7:21am - 7:12pm
Nov 1st sunrise and sunset - 7:44am - 6:36pm
Dec 1st sunrise and sunset - 7:11am - 5:20pm

[Brent]

how many are we gonna tack on???


@NWSFortWorth
3m
At 3:06 PM,
@DFWAirport
observed 100°! This is the second 100° day of 2019 & the first 100° day this month (August 2019) for DFW. #dfwwx #txwx

[Yukon Cornelius]

how many are we gonna tack on???


@NWSFortWorth
3m
At 3:06 PM,
@DFWAirport
observed 100°! This is the second 100° day of 2019 & the first 100° day this month (August 2019) for DFW. #dfwwx #txwx

Meanwhile your neighbor to the north, outside of WF has been having day after day over 100+ since July.

[Haris]

Screw you summer. Go away you disgusting animal.

I am happy I got to receive over 4" of rain in Atlanta and be under 2 flash flood warnings! That was an awesome change! I wish I could rent ahouse there during the summer lol

[TheProfessor]

It was definitely steamy here today. 95 with a heat index of 107, still didn't feel that bad though.

[bubba hotep]

how many are we gonna tack on???


@NWSFortWorth
3m
At 3:06 PM,
@DFWAirport
observed 100°! This is the second 100° day of 2019 & the first 100° day this month (August 2019) for DFW. #dfwwx #txwx

5 or 6 in a row, unless we bust low one day but that seems less likely given how dry it has been. Then climo starts working in our favor and the models show some rain returning to N. Texas after the 15thish. Also, the WPAC might help shuffle the pattern even more with a recurve or two.

[Brent]

how many are we gonna tack on???


@NWSFortWorth
3m
At 3:06 PM,
@DFWAirport
observed 100°! This is the second 100° day of 2019 & the first 100° day this month (August 2019) for DFW. #dfwwx #txwx

5 or 6 in a row, unless we bust low one day but that seems less likely given how dry it has been. Then climo starts working in our favor and the models show some rain returning to N. Texas after the 15thish. Also, the WPAC might help shuffle the pattern even more with a recurve or two.

I'm starting to notice the earlier sunset now... its only gonna get more noticeable as we get towards the end of the month

at least this heat wave will almost certainly be the worst of the summer

[weatherdude1108]

The weather outside feels like 2011, though NOT NEAR the duration of 2011. Only been misery the last half of Summer.

I'm only posting this because the EWX put a very slight inkling of convective hope in the long-term, which has not been in the discussions at all in recent days. Silver linings where I can get them.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 080727
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
227 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Oppressive heat will be the story in both the short term and long
term. The H5 center was over West TX Wednesday, and it will shift
east to Central TX today. With this shift the 700 mb winds will
change from mainly north to mainly south, but impacts on low level
temperatures may not differ much from yesterday if the deeper onshore
flow gives a slight boost in RH. So given almost a pure persistence
forecast, will re-issue a Heat Advy for the areas east of I-35, but
conditions look to have been just shy of the criteria over the Rio
Grande Plains. The 850 mb thermal ridge, by most model accounts show
a bigger push east out of West TX by Friday, and would assume more
areas to be capable of reaching advisory conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Hot 850 mb temps at or above 24C remain over the I-35 corridor
through the weekend, as the H5 ridge center becomes quasi-stationary
over NE TX. On Tuesday, a ripple in the monsoonal pattern over NM
gets entrained into the westerlies over the Central Plains and
flattens the mid level ridge slightly, with the center of the H5
ridge depicted over Louisiana. This could bring some moisture
wrapping around into SE TX and North Central TX. There`s a brief
sighting of a slight chance of convection over our northern counties
to account for a bullish forecast by the GFS, but will assume the
trends will favor the more bearish ECM model which maintains
continued triple digit heat through the period.

[dhweather]

August 2019 in Texas: Return of the Death Ridge.

You mean RIDGE OF DEATH!!!

[gpsnowman]

For us DFW folks, the thin cloud cover today might keep us under 100. Still nasty out.