***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
LAC085-211700-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1006 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
* UNTIL 1100 AM CST
* AT 1006 AM CST...THE SHREVEPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF ZWOLLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ZWOLLE AT 1020 AM CST
JUST NORTHWEST OF MANY AT 1025 AM CST
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.
THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
REPEATING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
UNTIL 1100 AM CST.
LAT...LON 3162 9375 3132 9357 3140 9327 3182 9350
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH
LOUISIANA AREAL OUTLINE FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
945 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THIS TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST AND INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING PARTS OF LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL WEST CENTRAL
CENTRAL SOUTHWEST SOUTH CENTRAL
SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE TORNADO WATCH ARE...
ALEXANDRIA COLFAX COLUMBIA CROWLEY
DE RIDDER JENNINGS LAKE CHARLES LEESVILLE
MANY MARKSVILLE MIDWAY NATCHITOCHES
OPELOUSAS VILLE PLATTE WINNFIELD
IN LOUISIANA THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING PARISHES...
LAC069-085-212200-
NORTHWEST
NATCHITOCHES SABINE
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-212200-
BULLETIN...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 CST FRI FEB 21 2003
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TODAY FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUITMAN
TEXAS...TO JEFFERSON...TO SHREVEPORT...HOMER...AND FARMERVILLE
LOUISIANA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
ENCOUNTER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATCH AREA TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO
FOUR INCHES HAVE FALLEN SINCE EARLY THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF EAST
TEXAS...WHILE AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THE GROUND IS COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN SINCE
EARLY THURSDAY...AND MANY CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS ARE NEARING
OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
EXCESS WATER RUNOFF...AND LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHECK PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF
FLOODING THREATENS. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...MOVE QUICKLY
TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS ON ROADWAYS.
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE
WATCH AREA...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. BE ALERT TO CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED...OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-211800-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LATER TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF HOUSTON TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND
THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN
TEXAS TO NATCHITOCHES AND WINNFIELD LOUISIANA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
LAC085-211700-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1006 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
* UNTIL 1100 AM CST
* AT 1006 AM CST...THE SHREVEPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF ZWOLLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ZWOLLE AT 1020 AM CST
JUST NORTHWEST OF MANY AT 1025 AM CST
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.
THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
REPEATING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
UNTIL 1100 AM CST.
LAT...LON 3162 9375 3132 9357 3140 9327 3182 9350
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH
LOUISIANA AREAL OUTLINE FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
945 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THIS TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST AND INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING PARTS OF LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL WEST CENTRAL
CENTRAL SOUTHWEST SOUTH CENTRAL
SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE TORNADO WATCH ARE...
ALEXANDRIA COLFAX COLUMBIA CROWLEY
DE RIDDER JENNINGS LAKE CHARLES LEESVILLE
MANY MARKSVILLE MIDWAY NATCHITOCHES
OPELOUSAS VILLE PLATTE WINNFIELD
IN LOUISIANA THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING PARISHES...
LAC069-085-212200-
NORTHWEST
NATCHITOCHES SABINE
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-212200-
BULLETIN...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 CST FRI FEB 21 2003
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TODAY FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUITMAN
TEXAS...TO JEFFERSON...TO SHREVEPORT...HOMER...AND FARMERVILLE
LOUISIANA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
ENCOUNTER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATCH AREA TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO
FOUR INCHES HAVE FALLEN SINCE EARLY THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF EAST
TEXAS...WHILE AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THE GROUND IS COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN SINCE
EARLY THURSDAY...AND MANY CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS ARE NEARING
OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
EXCESS WATER RUNOFF...AND LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHECK PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF
FLOODING THREATENS. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...MOVE QUICKLY
TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS ON ROADWAYS.
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE
WATCH AREA...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. BE ALERT TO CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED...OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-211800-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LATER TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF HOUSTON TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND
THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN
TEXAS TO NATCHITOCHES AND WINNFIELD LOUISIANA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
0 likes

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...WRN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...
VALID 211747Z - 211945Z
ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING SEVERE THREAT NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
1001 MB SURFACE LOW IS NOW NORTH OF PALACIOS TX...AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S IN WARM SECTOR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WARM EXTENDS NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...NORTH
OF THE HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES AREAS...INTO THE VICINITY OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WHILE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS NORTH OF BOUNDARY...ABOVE NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE LAST
HOUR IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NORTHEAST OF
LAKE CHARLES. CONVECTION IS ALSO SLOWLY DEEPENING ALONG WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT ...SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW AND WEST OF THE
PALACIOS AREA...ON LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING/MOISTENING
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. SLOW INCREASING TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS AS 70 TO 90 KT 500 MB JET BEGINS TO NOSE
UP THE TEXAS COAST. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES GREATEST WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED NEAR WARM FRONT
JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW.
0 likes
Watch 12 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 12
VALID 220105Z - 220200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S LCH TO 15
E LCH TO 30 ESE POE TO 30 NW ESF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 113
..JEWELL..02/22/03
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV...HGX...
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 12
VALID 220000Z - 220100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE BPT TO
30 NW LCH TO 35 WNW POE TO 50 NE LFK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 113
..JEWELL..02/21/03
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV...HGX...
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 12
VALID 212300Z - 220000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GLS TO
30 WNW BPT TO 35 S LFK.
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 12
VALID 220105Z - 220200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S LCH TO 15
E LCH TO 30 ESE POE TO 30 NW ESF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 113
..JEWELL..02/22/03
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV...HGX...
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 12
VALID 220000Z - 220100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE BPT TO
30 NW LCH TO 35 WNW POE TO 50 NE LFK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 113
..JEWELL..02/21/03
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV...HGX...
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 12
VALID 212300Z - 220000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GLS TO
30 WNW BPT TO 35 S LFK.
0 likes

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MS...SWRN TN...NERN LA...SERN AR
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 212320Z - 220315Z
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM W-CENTRAL AND
N-CENTRAL LA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THIS
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 4Z. EXPECT MERGING/TRAINING OF CELLS
WITH PEAK RAIN RATES NEAR 3 INCHES/HOUR AND 1.5-2.5 INCH/HOUR
RATES BEING COMMON. A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND NEAR
SEVERE LIMITS IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT PRIND GREATER SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FARTHER S.
SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE OVER EXTREME SERN TX...WARM
FRONT EWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL LA. WARM FRONT INTERSECTS RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF RAPIDES PARISH...WITH INVERTED TROUGH NEWD
ALONG ROUGHLY GLH-MKL LINE. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN FROM
JUST NE OF SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF INVERTED TROUGH -- AND N OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
THIS...AS WELL AS VWP/PROFILER WINDS...INDICATE INTENSE LOW LEVEL
WAA...ELEVATED ATOP COOL AIR OVER DISCUSSION AREA. THIS PROCESS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH
ELEVATED MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER SERN
AR/NWRN MS AND 800-1500 J/KG AS FAR N AS WRN TN BASED ON RUC2
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE ABUNDANT OVER REGION
WITH PW 1.5-2 INCHES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING. AFTER
DARK...50-65 KT LLJ WILL FURTHER ENHANCE ELEVATED ASCENT..WITH
RUC 294K-297K ISENTROPIC PROGS INDICATING INCREASING LIFT.
0 likes

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN GA...PORTIONS ERN FL
PANHANDLE/NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 220018Z - 220315Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE IN 2-4 HOURS WITH CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS NRN FL/SRN GA AND ERN FL PANHANDLE...WIND DAMAGE BEING
PRIMARY THREAT AND LOW PROBABILITIES ARISING FOR TORNADOES. WW
NOT ANTICIPATED NEXT 1-2 HOURS BECAUSE OF MARGINAL/ISOLATED
NATURE OF POTENTIAL ATTM...BUT WW MAY BE CONSIDERED LATER THIS
EVENING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBJECTIVE INSTABILITY GUIDANCE INDICATES
TONGUE OF RELATIVELY HIGH THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA THROUGH EVENING...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN UPPER
60S/LOW 70S F OFFSETTING WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD
MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. VERTICAL SHEAR -- NOW WEAK TO
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE BASED ON VWP DATA -- IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER REGION WITH APPROACH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER S
TX. BY APPROXIMATELY 03Z...200-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH IS REASONABLY
PROGGED BY RUC OVER VLD AREA...WITH 40-45 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM AGL
LAYER. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE WEAKNESS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH CINH WILL BE SMALL
AS WELL.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 12...
VALID 220126Z - 220330Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER MORE OF SERN LA...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS COASTAL MS/AL...THROUGH AT LEAST 4Z...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR E AS EXTREME WRN FL PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA...PRESENTLY PARTIALLY COVERED BY WW
12.
MARINE FRONT HAS PASSED MSY AND BTR AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
REMAINDER SERN LA..INTO SWRN MS AND OVER COASTAL MS/AL DURING
NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING THREAT
OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS -- WILL BE ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT..AND
E OF CONFLUENCE LINE NOW EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS
VERMILION/ACADIA/ST LANDRY/AVOYELLES PARISHES. MODIFIED SIL RAOB
-- WHICH WAS LAUNCHED JUST N OF FRONT AT THE TIME -- YIELDS
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE/MUCAPE WITH SURFACE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F AS PRESENT IN MARINE AIR. EXPECT 0-3 KM
AGL SRH IN 300-600 J/KG RANGE...40-50 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR...AND 50-60
KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH LCL AROUND 925 MB -- ALL FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES MARINE AIR
MASS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF SRN MS INTO SWRN AL AND POSSIBLY
WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 6Z...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NOW
OBSERVED OVER SERN LA/SRN MS WHICH WILL ALSO SHIFT ENEWD.
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TORNADO WARNING
MSC077-220310-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
826 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 910 PM CST
* AT 826 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF TOPEKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC WITH THIS STORM.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO...
BE NEAR TOPEKA AT 830 PM CST
BE NEAR MONTICELLO AT 845 PM CST
BE NEAR OMA AT 850 PM CST
BE NEAR SILVER CREEK AT 855 PM CST
BE NEAR NEW HEBRON AT 900 PM CST
LAT...LON 3170 9024 3137 9024 3136 9005 3140 9004
3142 8998 3176 8999
MSC077-220310-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
826 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 910 PM CST
* AT 826 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF TOPEKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC WITH THIS STORM.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO...
BE NEAR TOPEKA AT 830 PM CST
BE NEAR MONTICELLO AT 845 PM CST
BE NEAR OMA AT 850 PM CST
BE NEAR SILVER CREEK AT 855 PM CST
BE NEAR NEW HEBRON AT 900 PM CST
LAT...LON 3170 9024 3137 9024 3136 9005 3140 9004
3142 8998 3176 8999
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TORNADO WARNING
MSC073-220700-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1214 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LAMAR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 100 AM CST
* AT 1214 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OLUH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
THE STORM WILL BE NEAR OLUH AT 1220 AM
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. A TORNADO CAN FORM AT ANYTIME.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.
LAT...LON 3120 8962 3109 8948 3132 8941 3140 8956
MSC073-220700-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1214 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LAMAR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 100 AM CST
* AT 1214 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OLUH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
THE STORM WILL BE NEAR OLUH AT 1220 AM
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. A TORNADO CAN FORM AT ANYTIME.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.
LAT...LON 3120 8962 3109 8948 3132 8941 3140 8956
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TORNADO WARNING
MSC099-220630-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1159 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NESHOBA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 1230 AM CST
* AT 1159 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 4 MILES WEST OF NESHOBA...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PHILADELPHIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO...
BE NEAR PHILADELPHIA...TUCKER AT 1210 AM CST
A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME - TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 3267 8929 3258 8910 3290 8892 3293 8905
MSC099-220630-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1159 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NESHOBA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 1230 AM CST
* AT 1159 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 4 MILES WEST OF NESHOBA...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PHILADELPHIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO...
BE NEAR PHILADELPHIA...TUCKER AT 1210 AM CST
A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME - TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 3267 8929 3258 8910 3290 8892 3293 8905
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1234 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2003
TIME(CST) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
1100 PM STEENS MS FLOODING
02/21/03 LOWNDES ROAD FLOODING. REPORTED
BY LOWNDES COUNTY
SHERIFFS OFFICE.
1100 PM 4S COLUMBUS MS FLOODING
02/21/03 LOWNDES OLD MACON ROAD
FLOODED.REPORTED BY
LOWNDES COUNTY SHERIFFS
OFFICE.NWUS54 KJAN 220634
LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1234 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2003
TIME(CST) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
1100 PM STEENS MS FLOODING
02/21/03 LOWNDES ROAD FLOODING. REPORTED
BY LOWNDES COUNTY
SHERIFFS OFFICE.
1100 PM 4S COLUMBUS MS FLOODING
02/21/03 LOWNDES OLD MACON ROAD
FLOODED.REPORTED BY
LOWNDES COUNTY SHERIFFS
OFFICE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1234 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2003
TIME(CST) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
1100 PM STEENS MS FLOODING
02/21/03 LOWNDES ROAD FLOODING. REPORTED
BY LOWNDES COUNTY
SHERIFFS OFFICE.
1100 PM 4S COLUMBUS MS FLOODING
02/21/03 LOWNDES OLD MACON ROAD
FLOODED.REPORTED BY
LOWNDES COUNTY SHERIFFS
OFFICE.NWUS54 KJAN 220634
LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1234 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2003
TIME(CST) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
1100 PM STEENS MS FLOODING
02/21/03 LOWNDES ROAD FLOODING. REPORTED
BY LOWNDES COUNTY
SHERIFFS OFFICE.
1100 PM 4S COLUMBUS MS FLOODING
02/21/03 LOWNDES OLD MACON ROAD
FLOODED.REPORTED BY
LOWNDES COUNTY SHERIFFS
OFFICE.
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT, LA
810 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
TIME(CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0540 PM 2 W JONESBORO LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 JACKSON ED BARNES RD CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER. REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
0540 PM 3 S CHATHAM LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 JACKSON HWY 34 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
WATER. REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
0540 PM QUITMAN LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 JACKSON BEECH SPRINGS RD CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER. REPORTED
BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.
0600 PM POLLOCK LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 GRANT FLAGGON RD CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER. REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
0600 PM 3 SW BENTLEY LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 GRANT WALKER GRAVEL PIT
RD...DOUGLAS RD...AND
LOFTON RDS CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER. REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
0600 PM COLFAX LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 GRANT OQUIN SPUR RD CLOSED DUE
TO HIGH WATER. REPORTED BY
LAW ENFORCEMENT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT, LA
810 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
TIME(CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0540 PM 2 W JONESBORO LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 JACKSON ED BARNES RD CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER. REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
0540 PM 3 S CHATHAM LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 JACKSON HWY 34 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
WATER. REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
0540 PM QUITMAN LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 JACKSON BEECH SPRINGS RD CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER. REPORTED
BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.
0600 PM POLLOCK LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 GRANT FLAGGON RD CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER. REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
0600 PM 3 SW BENTLEY LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 GRANT WALKER GRAVEL PIT
RD...DOUGLAS RD...AND
LOFTON RDS CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER. REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
0600 PM COLFAX LA FLASH FLOODS
02/21/03 GRANT OQUIN SPUR RD CLOSED DUE
TO HIGH WATER. REPORTED BY
LAW ENFORCEMENT.
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS, LA
812 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
TIME(CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0515 AM 2 E GREENSBURG LA WIND DAMAGE
02/21/03 ST. HELENA A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN.
REPORTED BY POLICE
DEPARTMENT
0510 AM 3 E GILLSBURG MS WIND DAMAGE
02/21/03 AMITE A POWER POLE WAS KNOCKED
DOWN. REPORTED BY THE
PUBLIC.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS, LA
812 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
TIME(CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0515 AM 2 E GREENSBURG LA WIND DAMAGE
02/21/03 ST. HELENA A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN.
REPORTED BY POLICE
DEPARTMENT
0510 AM 3 E GILLSBURG MS WIND DAMAGE
02/21/03 AMITE A POWER POLE WAS KNOCKED
DOWN. REPORTED BY THE
PUBLIC.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM UNTIL
600 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 25 MILES
NORTH NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA.
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION... CONTINUE...WW 13...WW 14...
DISCUSSION...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE DESTABILIZING ACROSS REGION AS
VERY STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NWD MOTION OF WARM FRONT SUPPORT
MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SPREADING ACROSS WW OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES...AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH...EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22050.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 16
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1235 AM UNTIL 600 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 125 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES EAST OF BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA TO 50 MILES
NORTH OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA.
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 13...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 14. WATCH NUMBER
13...14 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 35 AM CST. CONTINUE...WW 15...
DISCUSSION...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD INTO PARTS
OF CNTRL MS/AL LATER THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
RECOVERY CONTINUES. SFC-1 KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS
ACROSS E CNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL ATTM.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH...EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22050.
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