STORM2K

weatherdude1108 wrote:Yep, what I was afraid of. Background state not on our side for rain and cool temps.

Hoping this forecast BUSTS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

dpep4 wrote:Sunny, very pleasant mid-60's to upper 50's dewpoints, and highs in the 89-91 range for the next week in DFW? Heck yes I'll take that, that's barely hot.

Finally don't have to wait until almost sundown to walk or bike (without rain or lightning risk).

lukem wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:Yep, what I was afraid of. Background state not on our side for rain and cool temps.

Hoping this forecast BUSTS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Crazy that it was showing the complete opposite as recently as last week. Hopefully we see another reversal!

weatherdude1108 wrote:

lukem wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:Yep, what I was afraid of. Background state not on our side for rain and cool temps.

Hoping this forecast BUSTS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Crazy that it was showing the complete opposite as recently as last week. Hopefully we see another reversal!

I know. I don't know what happened(?). All the weather guy said was that they originally thought the low pressure over Texas was going to get cut off and hang out in TX for a week or more, giving us a nother several inches possibly. They talked about Pacific moisture being fed in by the tropical systems in the Pacific, along with stalled boundaries to fuel it more. But they said the low opened up and moved east after all. along with the western death ridge amplifying, moving the tropical systems west away from the Mexican coast. The pattern had a mind of its own. Ugh.

I did notice with each passing half day, the 7-day totals kept inching down with each forecast. That's when I wondered how much more (if anything) we would actually get. I think there are some people around Central Texas (and other parts of Texas) that didn't get much if anything the past couple weeks, at least nothing "agriculturally/horticulturally significant", much less hydrologically.

Gotta love the weather! I don't know if I can believe these long-term forecasts anymore.

Strong or isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across the region.

A strong upper level disturbance moving southward over NW LA and NE TX currently is producing a cluster of strong thunderstorms over NE TX. Air mass south of this activity is heating and with surface temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90’s by early to mid afternoon, high instability will be in place to support this activity SW into SE TX. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop and push SW across the area being helped with lift from the disturbance aloft. Main hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and very heavy rainfall. Soundings do show some modestly dry sub cloud layers and this could help support gusty wind or downbursts. Activity may linger in an isolated fashion into the late night hours as energy aloft moves over the area.

Overall pattern change aloft will develop into the weekend and next week with flat upper level ridge of high pressure building from the western US into the southern plains. This will effectively end the ongoing wet pattern of late and reduce rain chances into the 20% or less category from Friday onward into next week.

A weak frontal boundary may approach the region late this weekend and help to usher in an even drier air mass. Low temperatures early next week may fall well into the 60’s east of I-45 and north of I-10 and near 70 over much of the area as dewpoints fall into the 60’s with dry northerly flow at the surface and aloft.

August ended with 8.58 inches of rainfall at BUSH IAH which is the wettest month we have had since January 2022 (9.42 inches). In fact we had more rain in August than for the months of April-July (7.77. inches).

Drought condition have seen a dramatic improvement over much of the area over the last 30 days with a complete removal of the exceptional drought levels west of the Brazos River and significant improvements over Liberty, Harris, Montgomery, San Jacinto, and Walker Counties. While significant improvements have occurred, drought still remains over much of the state and rainfall forecasts over the next week are low with a fairly dry pattern in place.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

lukem wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:Yep, what I was afraid of. Background state not on our side for rain and cool temps.

Hoping this forecast BUSTS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Crazy that it was showing the complete opposite as recently as last week. Hopefully we see another reversal!

I know. I don't know what happened(?). All the weather guy said was that they originally thought the low pressure over Texas was going to get cut off and hang out in TX for a week or more, giving us a nother several inches possibly. They talked about Pacific moisture being fed in by the tropical systems in the Pacific, along with stalled boundaries to fuel it more. But they said the low opened up and moved east after all. along with the western death ridge amplifying, moving the tropical systems west away from the Mexican coast. The pattern had a mind of its own. Ugh.

I did notice with each passing half day, the 7-day totals kept inching down with each forecast. That's when I wondered how much more (if anything) we would actually get. I think there are some people around Central Texas (and other parts of Texas) that didn't get much if anything the past couple weeks, at least nothing "agriculturally/horticulturally significant", much less hydrologically.

Gotta love the weather! I don't know if I can believe these long-term forecasts anymore.

Cpv17 wrote:
Rain chances for my area were really high ever since the wetter pattern started maybe what, 3 weeks ago? Altogether I picked up about 6” in that time period. So I’m sitting at about 16” for the year now which is still well below normal. I was near 40” last year around this time. But back to what I was saying about the high chances. They failed to deliver here on most days. Yeah I got 6” but most of that came in like 3 or 4 separate events. It just seems like I should’ve gotten more than that. And this past week the WPC had my area down for 3-5” and I got absolutely nothing. And now the switch flipped over the weekend really fast. Just a few days ago the CPC had much of the state still experiencing the wetter pattern through the middle of this month in their 8-14 day outlook. What a weird and abrupt pattern flip back to warm and dry. Overall for me personally, the wetter pattern was on the underwhelming side. I’m thankful for what I got but I’m let down because so many high rain chances didn’t really deliver. Now we go back to our regularly scheduled programming. What we just had was a tease. At least for me.

Edwards Limestone wrote:Here comes another outflow moving south towards me...