Texas Spring 2016

[Ntxw]

Parts of DFW is going to end up with 3, 4, 5+ inches of rain next week. Next 2 weeks looks wet and some areas will surpass March monthly totals. Oh how quickly things change around here from no rain to too much.

CFSv2 the next 45 days has in excess of a foot of rain or more for many east of I-35. While you should not take such numbers to value, it does show the potential for active spring rains to occur. The past 12 months have proven the dry season have under-performed while the wet seasons have overachieved.

[EnnisTx]

I know it's a ways out, but how does the weather look on the 11th and 12th? Having an outdoor party....

[Brent]

I know it's a ways out, but how does the weather look on the 11th and 12th? Having an outdoor party....

Could be heavy rain on Friday the 11th ending as of now before Saturday the 12th

[Ntxw]

Yeah this system is hardly going to move much at all. Basically overspread rain Monday night, sit around near the state through Friday maybe longer. It is blocked and cut off from the upper pattern.

[Brent]

GFS very consistent... some light rain possible Monday, heaviest rain Tuesday into Wednesday... possibly a bit of a lull Thursday before more widespread rain Thursday Night and Friday. Low pressure stalls near Austin Friday then makes a loop before exiting east on Saturday. It's gonna be wet...

[Lagreeneyes03]

Crazy. I was just out at Lake Grapevine on Monday and parts of the lake/parks are blocked off again or still blocked off from last year. Any more copious rain is going to simply ruin the lake's parks around it, and may ruin the 2016 summer lake season as it ruined 2015's. I'm sure other lakes are in the same situation. The cleanup and revenue losses are financially devastating.

[KatDaddy]

Perfect Spring weather across much of TX through the today and Saturday with lots of sun and highs in the mid to upper 70s so enjoy. Moisture return begins Sunday as we transition into more active pattern through next week with a large upper low moving slowly across TX with multiple disturbances. Heavy rains and severe weather continue to look possible. The SPC continues to target the S Plains on Monday and TX into AR and LA on Tuesday.

From this morning's SPC Day 4-8 Convective Outlook regarding next Tuesday:
IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION...ROBUST DIABATIC HEATING COULD OCCUR ACROSS S TX. THIS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS TUE EVENING/NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...A STRONG SLY LLJ SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS MAY SUPPORT A LONG-DURATION TORNADO RISK...WITH HAIL/WIND THREATS BEING MORE PREDOMINANT UPSTREAM.

[TheProfessor]

My goodness this will be a good rainstorm for the plains and Midwest. I could see 4 inches here on campus before I leave for spring break next Friday. I'm really worried about the possible severe weather down in Texas next week, this storm is similar to the one in December. Don't know if the models were still showing last night but some of them had CAPE of 3500J/Kg widespread in Texas.

[TheProfessor]

It didn't look like it would happen, but the system came in a little bit slower than modeled so it snowed all night instead of all yesterday and we ended up with one last hurrah here before Spring arrives and stays. http://imgur.com/IDBLicv

[TheProfessor]

One more pic, this is probably the prettiest the trees have looked all winter. http://imgur.com/Jh9QuaZ

[TheProfessor]

I lied these are the last 4 pictures. http://imgur.com/a/gEvoO

[Ntxw]

Pretty good consensus for 3-5+ inches of rain for DFW and Austin areas. Not localized but widespread and some 6-8" spots. As mentioned above by lagreeneyes many lakes are full and this will likely cause more headaches.

[Ntxw]

My goodness this will be a good rainstorm for the plains and Midwest. I could see 4 inches here on campus before I leave for spring break next Friday. I'm really worried about the possible severe weather down in Texas next week, this storm is similar to the one in December. Don't know if the models were still showing last night but some of them had CAPE of 3500J/Kg widespread in Texas.

Yeah we'll have to take the severe weather threat one day at a time over several days. Big news story will be some of the prolific rainfall totals from Texas to Arkansas and up the Ohio/Ms river basin. Widespread flood watches wll probably be needed for many. This system is something we stamp as an EL-Nino like low, cutoff and sits.

Meanwhile some record heat for the east coast coming, how about that for beating down the PNA?

[EnnisTx]

Well Crap, going to be soggy for the 12th, the party must go on, I have ribs, brisket, ham and sausage to smoke !!

[gboudx]

Well Crap, going to be soggy for the 12th, the party must go on, I have ribs, brisket, ham and sausage to smoke !!

We're planning to go to Possum Kingdom Lake 11th-13th. Obviously we were hoping for good weather, but it's not looking good.

[Ntxw]

Just FYI DFW's wettest March is 7.39" of rain in 2002. May give that a run for its money this year.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose (12:01pm Friday 3/4):

Additional changes to our weather pattern will take place next week when a large trough of low pressure moves inland along the coast of California and tracks across northern Mexico and Texas. The latest forecast solutions call for the trough to spread inland across the West Monday, sinking southeast to a position over northern Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday. The trough should eventually lift northeast across Texas next Thursday and Friday and exit the state on Saturday.

Ahead of the main trough, smaller waves of low pressure will begin moving across Texas out of Mexico Monday and Tuesday. With a very moist atmosphere in place, conditions will be favorable for the development of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms on Monday through Tuesday. The probability for rain will be near 60 percent. Forecasters are closely monitoring the period from Monday night through Tuesday afternoon as some of the thunderstorms may become severe, producing large hail and damaging winds. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain will also be possible. The National Weather Service is showing the potential for 1-2 inches of rain across much of the area Monday through Tuesday.

The threat for severe weather and heavy rain is forecast to decrease Wednesday when a cold front slowly moves across the area, bringing slightly cooler air. But with the trough still located to our southwest, periods of overrunning light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to occur Wednesday through Friday. Rain amounts during this period are forecast to generally average between 1 and 1.5 inches.

Total rainfall between Monday and Friday is generally forecast to average between 2 and 4 inches, with isolated higher totals. The sky is forecast to remain cloudy throughout the week. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 70s Monday and Tuesday, cooling to around 68-70 degrees Wednesday through Friday. Low temperatures next week will generally be in the 50s. Dry and mild weather is forecast to return next weekend and continue into the early part of the following week. No appreciable change in the temperature is forecast.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Brent]

Well Crap, going to be soggy for the 12th, the party must go on, I have ribs, brisket, ham and sausage to smoke !!

Looks like as of now the rain will clear out the 11th.

[EnnisTx]

Well Crap, going to be soggy for the 12th, the party must go on, I have ribs, brisket, ham and sausage to smoke !!

Looks like as of now the rain will clear out the 11th.

Hopefully a little drying out will occur, but with that much rain.... it will be hard to dry out much in one day.... pool party too so will have to heat the pool..

[weatherdude1108]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH POTENTIALLY TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT...WITH A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA ON
MONDAY AND DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BENEATH THE DEVELOPING CAPPING INVERSION.

INVERSION WEAKENS MONDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME
DEEPER CONVECTION THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURS...ALTHOUGH WHETHER THE CAP BREAKS
COMPLETELY IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. DIABATIC HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE CAP
COMPLETELY ERODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHT
FALLS WITH THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST AND APPROACH OF
LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND ASSIST IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS CLOSER TO THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE
TRANS PECOS SOUTH INTO MEXICO. THESE STORMS LOOK TO CROSS THE RIO
GRANDE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY MONDAY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OVER
2000 J/KG...AND ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60
KT...WILL YIELD A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH MAIN
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE FORCING
CONTINUES NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS.

NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY BIGGER CONCERN...WILL BE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE CAP MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS LOOKS TO ERODE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING NEAR AND WEST OF I-35. AGAIN...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE A THREAT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES YIELDING MUCAPE
VALUES OF CLOSE TO 3000 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
POSITIONING OF COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL ASSIST IN
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR LAREDO TUESDAY
EVENING IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY/DRY LINE ACROSS THE WESTERN WILL SURGING EAST BEHIND IT.
AS THIS HAPPENS...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SURGING EAST OVERNIGHT IS
THERE. HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING COULD SUPPORT A
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWN TO POOL AROUND
1.6-1.7 INCHES EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING
MAX VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAINFALL WILL BE THERE...ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT ON TIMING AND
LARGER FEATURES...AND BEYOND A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT ARE
INDICATING SOME POCKETS OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35.

AS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES EAST OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRIER AIR LOOKS TO FILTER INTO THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL TO THE WEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY LOOKS TO EJECT EAST ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A FINAL SHOT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.