JDawg512 wrote:Yea I saw that last sentence too and thought to myself most of July??? I know we are entering the inactive phase of the MJO in this part of the world but I would think by 2 weeks we would start to see a transition. What are your thoughts NTXW?
I'm not suprised that the first half of July will be quiet but I'd be suprised if the last half stays quiet.
There will be a lot of volatility with the models if they don't grasp tropical forcing and MJO well. We saw how the GFS has flipped back and forth 180 from one run to the other, they probably like climo heat. While we can't rule that out any kind of heat will be subdued IMO, vegetation is as green as I've seen it any summer.
In the bigger picture there is a massive WWB progressing the Pacific. Rain rates are increasing eastward and when they arrive will spell much more active second half of July than the first half. There isn't a clear signal yet within 7 days but it will probably come. The season is different so we might not see as much rain as May, but the progression is similar. Stick to the 5 day forecast and watch the typhoons/EPAC hurricanes evolve as they can alter the pattern that gives models issues.
I circled the previous high rainfall rates with the last WWB late May into early June. Lined up the next WWB and rainfall plume which will get things much more humid later this month.
The good news is it's over 240 hours out 
Models continue to not perform well. They keep wanting heat but it's just not sustainable. NWS have faltered to them and tried to forecast triple digits for instance last week say mid this week (today tomorrow and thurs) may try to push 100...well it could rain and barely budge 90.
