Texas Spring-2015

[wxman57]

Nice weather in the Central Plains today. It's currently 91F in North Platte, Nebraska. I believe that is a significant record, the warmest ever observed in March (88 was previous record). If only that pleasant warmth was located farther south into Houston...

[aggiecutter]

Storm Prediction Center changes their Severe Weather Outlook terminology categories:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=788316921257732

[gboudx]

From jeff regarding rain this week:

Two storm systems will affect TX over the next several days with additional widespread rainfall…some heavy.

An upper air storm system near Baja this morning will begin to move eastward today spreading lift from west to east across TX. At the surface warm southerly flow is bringing moisture back to the area with dewpoints into the low to mid 60’s which will likely result in some sea fog. Expect a mostly dry Tuesday followed by increasing rain chances tonight as the lift from the approaching upper level low spreads into the region. Will favor areas along and west of a Palacios to College Station line overnight for showers and even a thunderstorm or two.

Strong lift spreads eastward on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely across the region. There is some debate on exactly how strong the sub-tropical ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will be and if that may keep the bulk of the activity north and west of metro Houston, but the latest short term guidance is fairly aggressive will thunderstorms over the central counties from late morning into early evening. A few of the storms could be on the strong side, but instability is generally lacking. Will favor the threat for isolated heavy rainfall especially NW of a line from Palacios to Waller to Cleveland where a low level boundary may establish.


Weak frontal boundary may stall across the area on Wednesday night into Thursday so cannot completely pull rain chances on Thursday with a low level focus in the region. Expect coastal areas to remain in the light onshore flow which will keep 60 degree dewpoints over the cool nearshore waters…so sea fog is a good bet Wednesday-Friday.

Friday-Sunday:
Another strong upper level system will dig into the SW US and then head for TX…very El Nino like…with widespread rain and thunderstorms likely Friday and Saturday. This system appears stronger and has more moisture to work with than the first system tomorrow so concern is growing for a possible flooding threat due to the longer duration of the event and possible higher totals. Could again see some thunderstorms with this system also Friday night and Saturday.

Hydro:
Grounds remain wet across the region with additional rainfall likely Wednesday and Friday/Weekend. Main river stems are in recession from the rainfall last week, but forecasted rainfall amounts over the next 3-5 days suggests widespread amounts of 1-3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches will be possible. This amount of rainfall will generate new rises on areas watersheds and likely require flood gate operations on area reservoirs.

[Tejas89]

That low spinning over the northern Sierra Madres is sure a pretty site on the satellite loop. RAIN is a-coming.

[wxman57]

Storm Prediction Center changes their Severe Weather Outlook terminology categories:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=788316921257732

Looks unnecessary to me:

Marginal: 5%
Slight: 15%
Enhanced: 30%
Moderate: 45%
High: 60%+

How in the world would the general public or businesses be able to discern the difference between a marginal & slight risk? Let's put it another way, would they take any different action ahead of time for marginal vs. slight risk? The same question applies to enhanced vs. moderate. What different actions should the public (or a business) take for moderate vs. enhanced in the hours leading up to a possible severe weather event?

Businesses are trying to determine whether they need to take action to mitigate loss of life and/or property. I don't think adding 2 new categories helps the situation unless guidance is provided that describes the different actions that should be taken for each risk level.

[TheAustinMan]

Looks to be a rainy week this week.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks to be a rainy week this week.

I like it!

People hanging out at SXSW may not like it so much, but we are in a hydrologic drought, and they make umbrellas.

[Tejas89]

Storm Prediction Center changes their Severe Weather Outlook terminology categories:

All I can say is wow. Those will not last very long without some wordsmithing.

Echo wxman57's thoughts.

[Ntxw]

Looking very good rain prospects for the state. Best in the southern half. Baja low is moving very slow, slower than most guidance anticipate. It's going to linger around longer and prolong the event I think before another tries to kick out.

It's heading into the second half of March and still no Tornado reports anywhere in the US. Nothing in Texas, in fact all of 2015 so far there is only one wind damage report in far east Texas...that's it.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking very good rain prospects for the state. Best in the southern half. Baja low is moving very slow, slower than most guidance anticipate. It's going to linger around longer and prolong the event I think before another tries to kick out.

It's heading into the second half of March and still no Tornado reports anywhere in the US. Nothing in Texas, in fact all of 2015 so far there is only one wind damage report in far east Texas...that's it.

And no tornadoes is a bad thing?

[Ntxw]

Looking very good rain prospects for the state. Best in the southern half. Baja low is moving very slow, slower than most guidance anticipate. It's going to linger around longer and prolong the event I think before another tries to kick out.

It's heading into the second half of March and still no Tornado reports anywhere in the US. Nothing in Texas, in fact all of 2015 so far there is only one wind damage report in far east Texas...that's it.

And no tornadoes is a bad thing?

It's a good thing but it's still a part of the natural cycle of nature here. That kind of lack means the atmosphere is lacking the mechanism for thunderstorms. We haven't really seen those either or squall lines from fronts which we usually start seeing by now.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking very good rain prospects for the state. Best in the southern half. Baja low is moving very slow, slower than most guidance anticipate. It's going to linger around longer and prolong the event I think before another tries to kick out.

It's heading into the second half of March and still no Tornado reports anywhere in the US. Nothing in Texas, in fact all of 2015 so far there is only one wind damage report in far east Texas...that's it.

And no tornadoes is a bad thing?

It's a good thing but it's still a part of the natural cycle of nature here. That kind of lack means the atmosphere is lacking the mechanism for thunderstorms. We haven't really seen those either or squall lines from fronts which we usually start seeing by now.

True. I guess the atmosphere is still trying to "thaw out" from Winter. I saw they are still breaking ice flows on the Hudson River for boat traffic.

[WacoWx]

I'm getting married next Saturday the 28th outdoors here in Dallas in my backyard. As of yesterday, I was looking at chances of rain for the next 10 days, and good chances at that. Today, accuweather says 0% chance and Sunny!

I know its a long way out, and that there's no reliable forecast 11 days away, but I'm going to be coming back to this thread daily as the big day nears and posing the exact same question in hopes that I can better answer my fiance about the weather:

Is it going to rain on 3/28/2015?

I'm prepping her for a worst case scenario this far out, so no news is bad news.
Thanks Storm2k!

[TheProfessor]

Congrats, and it probably is too far out tell whether or not it's going to rain. The 28th is a big day for me too. It will be the 15th anniversary of what got me into weather.

[Yukon Cornelius]

We had forecasted 100% chance of rain last night with a possible 1/2" expected. I woke up this morning to not a drop. Talk about a forecast bust. We really need the rain up around here with all of our lakes sitting around 22%. Hopefully later this week pans out a little better.

[gboudx]

Hope you guys get rain up there. FWD NWS did mention the possibility occurring of what we saw this morning. From the Tuesday AFD:

DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU WANT TO FOLLOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL VARY DUE TO POSSIBLE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERRUPTION FROM
S-CENTRAL/SE TEXAS CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT
REGION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL UPPER JET.

[weatherdude1108]

Today was supposed to be a gully-washer (70% chance of thunderstorms). We got a little light rain this morning, but the Sun came out and stayed out.

Maybe this Special Weather Statement will come to fruition.
(Lakes, lakes, lakes, aquifers,...).


Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-190400-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
311 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

...WIDESPREAD RAINS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN MOVING ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MODERATE
RAINS OF 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS
HAPPENS...RUN-OFF WOULD LIKELY CREATE PROBLEMS IN NORMALLY FLOOD-
PRONE AREAS. CURRENTLY...EXPECTED STORM TOTALS BY SUNDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH TOTALS.

PLEASE MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO
ENCOUNTER TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD THE THREAT FOR FLOODING INCREASE
IN YOUR AREA.

[Brent]

A whopping 0.03" here...

[newtotex]

What are the odds of this year being like another spring/summer 2007? I didn't live here but from what I understand it was a pretty wet one

[weatherdude1108]

It was wet. I lived here in the Austin area. That is the last year all of the Highland Lakes in the chain were full at the same time, and flood gates needed to be opened.