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Nikki wrote:Sure is windy here on the coast this evening, and it sure is nice!!!!!!
High was 96f today. Still hoping against the models that Ingrid sends us some rain.
vbhoutex wrote:Nikki wrote:Sure is windy here on the coast this evening, and it sure is nice!!!!!!
It is even a little breezy here in the city, but it didn't keep the temps down.
Tireman4 wrote:Warm. Check. Humid. Check. Drenched in sweat from yard work (9:00 am to 10:30 am). Check. Wanting this crud over with a front. Check.
meaning I agree with all statements above!! I hope our winter is so wet our trees stay green, even the ones that normally don't in the winter!!!
Ingredients coming together to produce a period of potentially heavy rainfall across the area.
Remains and associated moisture from tropical cyclones Ingrid and Manuel will be moving northward over the next 24 hours into TX. At the same time the first “real” cool front of the fall season will be moving down the plains and into TX early Friday. Additionally, deep tropical moisture associated with a complex disturbance (95L) over the Yucatan this morning will also progress NW toward TX by Friday. Lastly, a fairly strong short wave in the upper air flow will carve into the state by Friday afternoon helping to aid in stronger lift of a near completely saturated air mass.
Incoming and slow moving frontal boundary will produce strong surface convergence in a very moist atmosphere with the potential for slow storm motions and training of cells. Moisture values by late Thursday reach to nearly 150% to 175% of normal for this time of year and the forecast soundings show a nearly saturated air column indicating a deep warm layer and near excellent rainfall production (no dry air aloft evaporating falling rain).
Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, but the main event appears aimed at Friday afternoon and night as the slow moving front crosses the area. Potential for organized heavy rainfall along and ahead of the boundary for several hours starting Friday afternoon. With such a saturated air mass, rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour are possible. Storm totals may average 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts under training cells.
While grounds are dry due to the ongoing drought conditions across the area, short term rainfall rates may easily overwhelm drainage capacities in urban areas leading to quick flooding or roadways. 3-hr flash flood guidance for Harris and surrounding counties is running in the 3.0-4.0 inch range which is relatively high.
95L:
The other item of interest is the tropical system currently nearing the western shore of the Yucatan Peninsula. This well organized system will move over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche later today where development into a tropical cyclone is likely….80%. This system is forecast to move slowly WNW to NW for the next 48 hours. Thereafter a complex interaction with the front moving off the TX coast makes for a very difficult forecast. Some model guidance turns the system west into MX and others loop the system northward toward TX/LA and yet others send it due east toward FL. Much depends on if 95L becomes captured by the trough along the US Gulf coast. Forecast confidence is extremely low at the moment.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_95.gif
Factors continue to come together for widespread heavy rainfall across much of S, C, SE TX Friday-midday Saturday.
A slow moving frontal boundary will combine with deep tropical moisture from both eastern Pacific Hurricane Manuel and southern Gulf of Mexico tropical disturbance 95L to produce potentially excessive rainfall across the area. This tends to be a classic flash flood setup for the state of TX especially along and E of I-35 into the coastal bend area. Moisture levels are forecast to increase to near +2 SD above normal for mid September by Friday morning (PWS of 2.25 to 2.45 inches). This suggest the air column will be saturated through a deep layer with little evaporation of falling rain. Storm motions will gradually slow from their quick NW motions today to 5-10 mph on Friday out of the SW and WSW which raises the threat for excessive rainfall accumulations. Additionally steering winds and low level boundaries will promote cell training which also increases the flash flood threat.
Coastal convergence early Friday morning (stronger winds over the Gulf colliding with weaker inland winds near the coast) will promote widespread development. Think most of this activity will remain near the coast or possibly work as far inland as US 59, although experience with such tropical air masses suggest the activity will anchor near the coast or the coastal counties. As the front enters the area Friday afternoon along with upper air disturbances from the remains of Manuel, development will become widespread across the entire area and likely last into the overnight hours.
With the air column expected to be saturated through a deep layer, rainfall rates will be on the excessive side. Organized convection will be capable of producing a rapid 1-3 inches in an hour or less. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches appear possible with isolate totals up to 5 inches especially under areas a cell training. These types of air masses are very capable of producing some big totals in a short period of time.
Grounds are dry to very dry across the region and flash flood guidance is high which should help mitigate run-off especially in rural areas. Urban areas may suffer more from the high potential rainfall rates with primary drainage systems possibly overwhelmed. With rivers and lakes running below to well below normal, this rainfall is not expected to generate flood flows on area rivers…but hopefully with return them to at least base flow conditions.
Drier air will filter into the region by Saturday afternoon ending he chance of rainfall. Post frontal conditions may allow overnight temperatures to fall into the 60’s for many locations by early next week.
95L:
Area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche this morning remains fairly well organized, but lacks significant amounts of thunderstorm activity due to some dry air near the system. This system still has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as it drifts WNW toward the eastern coast of Mexico. Latest computer guidance is in much better agreement on a track toward the WNW and NW possibly making landfall in the same region that Ingrid made landfall last week. With a cold front pushing off the TX coast this weekend, this should prevent any northward turn or impacts to our region.
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al952013.png
my Cowboys my Rockets my Astros
southerngale wrote:I'm still in Houston and it's been raining all day. It's raining in the Beaumont area as well. I have hit some minor street flooding, but we have sure needed the rain. High chances today, tonight, and tomorrow.
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Tireman4 wrote:southerngale wrote:I'm still in Houston and it's been raining all day. It's raining in the Beaumont area as well. I have hit some minor street flooding, but we have sure needed the rain. High chances today, tonight, and tomorrow.
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You might as well move...LOL
my Cowboys my Rockets my Astros
CajunMama wrote:Here ya go David! You might need this!!! I also thought Zooland was quite appropriate for you!
Jagno wrote:5" of rain and still going strong. Weather warnings suggesting the possibility of rain in excess of 10" now. Great movie watching/junk food consuming weather but we have a business to run. Every single time I get in my car there are wrecks and vehicles in ditches. Did we forget how to drive in the rain? LOL Stay safe everyone.
Lot's of power outages.................but so far I still have power at home thank goodness.
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