Tornado outbreak possible - March 2-4

[Ed Mahmoud]

If you know nothing else about reading soundings (I myself am a self taught amateur via the internet), the Energy-Helicity Index, a product of CAPE and helicity, is a quick look 'cheat' to measure tornado and supercell probability. Anything approaching a 2 a tornado is possible, 2.5 means tornadoes are likely somewhere in the vicinity, all else being likely, and 4 and higher means big tornadoes are probable in the vicinity.


Not hard and fast, Houston forecast sounding (what the model thinks a balloon sounding would look like if released) has an EHI of over 3, so normally the tornado risk is high, but there is a warm layer near 700 mb, which means discrete storms, the ones that most often produce the big tornadoes, probably will not form, and storms will wait for the extra forcing along the cold front, and be linear.

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the threat area:

Alabama
Anniston - A few clouds, 66 (51)
Birmingham - A few clouds, 68 (51)
Dothan - Sunny, 72 (53)
Gadsden - A few clouds, 66 (52)
Huntsville - A few clouds, 67 (52)
Mobile - Partly cloudy, 70 (59)
Montgomery - Sunny, 71 (53)
Tuscaloosa - Sunny, 71 (52)

Arkansas
El Dorado - Mostly cloudy, 66 (59)
Fort Smith - Heavy rain, 45 (43)
Hot Springs - Mostly cloudy, 62 (57)
Jonesboro - Heavy rain, 57 (57)
Little Rock - Mostly cloudy, 64 (58)
Monticello - Mostly cloudy, 62 (57)
Pine Bluff - Mostly cloudy, 63 (57)
Russellville - Thunderstorm, 55 (54)
Texarkana - Thunderstorm, 61 (59)

Florida
Panama City - Sunny, 73 (56)
Pensacola - Mostly cloudy, 70 (61)

Kentucky
Bowling Green - Mostly cloudy, 68 (43)
Hopkinsville - Partly cloudy, 66 (45)
Owensboro - Mostly cloudy, 65 (47)
Paducah - Light rain, 55 (52)

Louisiana
Alexandria - Mostly cloudy, 76 (62)
Baton Rouge - Partly cloudy, 74 (63)
Boothville - Partly cloudy, 75 (64)
Lafayette - A few clouds, 77 (62)
Lake Charles - Mostly cloudy, 74 (63)
Monroe - Mostly cloudy, 68 (60)
New Iberia - Sunny, 77 (63)
New Orleans - Partly cloudy, 74 (66)
Shreveport - Light rain, 68 (61)
Tallulah - Mostly cloudy, 70 (60)

Mississippi
Columbus - A few clouds, 64 (52)
Greenville - Mostly cloudy, 66 (57)
Gulfport - Partly cloudy, 70 (62)
Hattiesburg - Partly cloudy, 71 (61)
Jackson - Mostly cloudy, 69 (59)
Meridian - A few clouds, 70 (55)
Natchez - Mostly cloudy, 68 (61)
Tupelo - A few clouds, 66 (52)
Vicksburg - Mostly cloudy, 70 (60)

Tennessee
Dyersburg - Thunder, 61 (52)
Memphis - Mostly cloudy, 65 (55)
Nashville - Partly cloudy, 68 (55)
Paris - Partly cloudy, 61 (48)

Texas
Beaumont - Light rainshower, 71 (64)
College Station - Light rain, 49 (47)
Galveston - Light rainshower, 68 (65)
Houston Hobby - Light rainshower, 70 (67)
Houston Intercontinental - Light rainshower, 69 (67)
Jacksonville - Thunderstorm, 48 (46)
Longview - Heavy rain, 52 (49)
Lufkin - Light rain, 67 (64)

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST MON MAR 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...WRN LA...SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90...

VALID 031618Z - 031745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90
CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 90 WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND
PART OF WW 90 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A TORNADO WATCH SOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM NRN AR EXTENDING SSWWD
ACROSS EAST TX. A MOIST AXIS EXISTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH 60 TO
65 F DEWPOINTS. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET AND SFC HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY MAKING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION GREATER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO
-14C WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF
40 TO 50 KT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS IN THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 03/03/2008


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX...

29099695 29389719 29569722 29629713 29779731 30049703
30239706 30399732 30769656 30709649 30909636 31099598
31069578 31319566 31499575 31599523 31809542 32369548
32519561 32959566 32969533 33949526 33979508 33639452
34159448 34169427 34329426 34329392 34169393 34169377
34009373 33879319 33789310 33389312 33319233 33089207
32729202 32649219 32599235 32439282 32169280 32159292
31929290 31799295 31669287 31499272 31359287 31389332
31259344 31259355 30729361 30479372 30239368 30229407
30079443 29929445 29899434 29529436 29399476 29279478
28809552 28919563 28999573 29249583 28989631 29259668

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 031621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST MON MAR 03 2008

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
ERN LA...EXTREME SE AR...MUCH OF MS...AND WRN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDS THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM SE TX TO THE TN VALLEY...

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER W TX IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EWD PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...A SURFACE LOW
IN E TX WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TO NRN MS/TN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SWEEP EWD ACROSS E
TX/WRN LA TODAY AND THE REMAINDER OF LA/MS/WRN AL BY 04/12Z.

THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN TIED LARGELY TO THE STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS A RESULT OF RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
ONLY MODEST WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID
AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE S /BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ AND DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS LA/MS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 500-1250 J/KG RANGE...WITH ONLY WEAK
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. EXPECT SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY ROUGHLY 21Z FROM SRN LA INTO SW MS...AND
THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS SHOW LARGE LOOPING STRUCTURES IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO
MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH OF
300-600 M2/S2 BY THIS EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS LA AND WRN
MS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. OTHERWISE...SOME FORM OF
THE ONGOING FRONTAL CONVECTION AND/OR EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING WRN/CENTRAL AL BY LATE
TONIGHT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 03/03/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1627Z (11:27AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

New tornado watch - the probabilities are quite conservative IMO:

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 91
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1035 AM UNTIL 600
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 90...

DISCUSSION...INCREASING THREAT OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM ERN TX INTO LA. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
TROUGH/WIND MAX FROM WRN TX WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
BOTH WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR DISCRETE
STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...HALES


SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 91
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1035 AM UNTIL 600
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 90...

DISCUSSION...INCREASING THREAT OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM ERN TX INTO LA. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
TROUGH/WIND MAX FROM WRN TX WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
BOTH WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR DISCRETE
STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 031632
WOU1

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 91
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

TORNADO WATCH 91 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-073-079-099-103-139-
040000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0091.080303T1635Z-080304T0000Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
DALLAS DESHA DREW
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN NEVADA
OUACHITA UNION


LAC001-003-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-
039-041-043-049-053-055-059-061-065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-
097-107-111-113-115-119-123-127-040000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0091.080303T1635Z-080304T0000Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALCASIEU CALDWELL
CAMERON CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RAPIDES RED RIVER RICHLAND
SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS
UNION VERMILION VERNON
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL WINN


TXC199-241-245-351-361-403-405-419-457-040000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0091.080303T1635Z-080304T0000Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON
NEWTON ORANGE SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER


GMZ450-452-040000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0091.080303T1635Z-080304T0000Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LZK...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW1
WW 91 TORNADO AR LA TX CW 031635Z - 040000Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NW LLQ/MONTICELLO AR/ - 35SSW LCH/LAKE CHARLES LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /47S LIT - 34SSW LCH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

LAT...LON 33889075 29659219 29659469 33889337

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.


Watch 91 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

HOU area not in that new watch.

[Cyclenall]

Isn't it true that on this date in history (1966), a tornado hit Jackson, MS, killing 54 persons?

[CrazyC83]

Also a bit surprising it is not PDS, but then again they did cut a few areas from the MDT risk.

[Bunkertor]

If you know nothing else about reading soundings (I myself am a self taught amateur via the internet), the Energy-Helicity Index, a product of CAPE and helicity, is a quick look 'cheat' to measure tornado and supercell probability. Anything approaching a 2 a tornado is possible, 2.5 means tornadoes are likely somewhere in the vicinity, all else being likely, and 4 and higher means big tornadoes are probable in the vicinity.


Not hard and fast, Houston forecast sounding (what the model thinks a balloon sounding would look like if released) has an EHI of over 3, so normally the tornado risk is high, but there is a warm layer near 700 mb, which means discrete storms, the ones that most often produce the big tornadoes, probably will not form, and storms will wait for the extra forcing along the cold front, and be linear.

True, i did so, too, and do understand the "lines" but i couldn´t get sounding and forecast together

[PTrackerLA]

So far things don't look too bad out there. We're in a moderate risk and on the eastern edge of the Tornado watch but the storms looks fairly weak at the moment. What concerns me is that we're already up to 77 degrees before 11 am with the sun breaking out intermittently which could make things very unstable this afternoon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Clouds are thinning in SE Louisiana and Mississippi...

[Weatherfreak14]

RUC sounding for Houston at 10 am still shows pronounced warm nose at 700 mb, so discrete cells less likely, but look at Natchez WRF sounding forecast for 6 pm. Possibly scariest looking sounding ever.

Except for that warm nose keeping individual cells from (probably) forming, HOU sounding would support tornadoes and supercells.


Note the EHI is almost 5 for Natchez...

Can you please tell me where you can get the model soundings please. Greatly appreciated.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Actual front almost to Houston- but look, showers under cap Northeast of HOU getting stronger, one of them may soon bust the cap.

Radar loop from HOU


And, look behind the front- the speed max must be approaching, because it looks like elevated supercells are trying to go in the cold sector...

San Antonio radar

Texas water vapor loop

[Bunkertor]

Soundings available here

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/severe.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

RUC sounding for Houston at 10 am still shows pronounced warm nose at 700 mb, so discrete cells less likely, but look at Natchez WRF sounding forecast for 6 pm. Possibly scariest looking sounding ever.

Except for that warm nose keeping individual cells from (probably) forming, HOU sounding would support tornadoes and supercells.


Note the EHI is almost 5 for Natchez...

Can you please tell me where you can get the model soundings please. Greatly appreciated.

Near 40 knot winds from the SE just off the surface forecast at 6 pm in Natchez, 55 knot wind from the Southwest less than 1 kilometer up, CAPE is more than sufficient for that kind of shear (over 1000 Joules/Kg), and shape of skew-T curve suggests a lot of that potential energy between 950 mb and 650 mb, the forecast level of free convection is a touch higher than ideal for tornadoes, but not by much, there is no appreciable convective inhibition forecast, and the low level shear/helicity, is as high as I think I've ever seen it. So tornadoes, and big ones, are likely around the Natchez area.

You can find a lot of resources on the internet to interpret skew-T diagrams (actual and forecast), and understand importance of things like EHI, TT, CAPE, Sweat Index, helicity, etc.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Note- what I'm posting, from the Northern Illionois University met page 'Storm Machine', are forecasted skew-Ts. There are only a limited number of cities with balloon releases, usually at 0Z and 12Z (6 am and 6 pm CST). Houston doesn't have one, people have to interpolate between Corpus Christi and Lake Charles. But if I want to know what the skew-T would look like, say at 18Z, in Houston, I go look at the model sounding. Usually, I go to the 3 hour WRF loop from the PSU e-Wall, identify an area of concern, go to the local NWS forecast office and find a 3 letter airport identifier, and then go get a model sounding from the RUC and WRF, and sometimes the GFS.


BTW, SPC will almost certainly ask for a special 18Z (Noon) or 19Z sounding from the NWS offices in Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas that do soundings, to help better resolve the severe weather threat today. That is pretty common on Moderate and High Risk days.

[Bunkertor]

A pretty nice roundup here.

With better english knowledge base than mine learning and understanding will be easy

http://estofex.org/guide/

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS forecasts a particularly nasty looking storm to be moving out of New Orleans at 6 pm, and arriving in Hattiesburg (I had a summer job in Laurel, MS in 1991) before 9 pm. So, just out of curiosity, I check 0Z forecast sounding for Hattiesburg.

HBG is Hattiesburg, so a quick visit to the NIU forecast sounding site, allows me to see GFS, RUC and WRF soundings.

GFS sounding below: The GFS is showing a nasty storm not because it is particularly severe (although helicity is high, instability is limited), but because precipitable waters are high (look at the depth of the high humidity air!)

[southerngale]

So far things don't look too bad out there. We're in a moderate risk and on the eastern edge of the Tornado watch but the storms looks fairly weak at the moment. What concerns me is that we're already up to 77 degrees before 11 am with the sun breaking out intermittently which could make things very unstable this afternoon.

I agree.... the radar looks rather unimpressive... just rain with a few thunderstorms (at least what is headed in this direction).
That could change, I suppose, but I doubt it will be anything worse than thunderstorms here... JMUO.
I'll be out running the roads this afternoon (unavoidable), so I hope it doesn't get too bad.

Only a slight risk here, but we're in a tornado watch.

[CrazyC83]

New Day 2: ALMOST a MDT (45% but left unhatched; while they have gone MDT with those numbers before despite not in the criteria, they went with the official criteria this time)

SPC AC 031730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON MAR 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS DELMARVA REGION SWWD TO CENTRAL
FL...MUCH OF FL PANHANDLE...AND ERN AL...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING IS EVIDENT ATTM
FROM NERN CANADA SWWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY TO NRN MEX...ANCHORED
BY CYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER ERN NM/W TX.
LATTER LOW IS FCST TO DEEPEN...BECOME CLOSED AND DETACH FROM NRN
STREAM TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION BY BEGINNING OF
PERIOD. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY BY 00Z BETWEEN AR
AND LOWEST PORTION OH RIVER. LOW THEN SHOULD EJECT
NEWD...DEVOLVING/DEAMPLIFYING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OVER PA BY 5/12Z
AS AT LEAST TWO CLOSELY SPACED/UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS DIG SEWD
ACROSS ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...VORTICITY
PATTERN WITH OH VALLEY LOW WILL ASSUME MORE NEGATIVE TILT...AS LOBE
PIVOTS CYCLONICALLY AROUND SRN/SERN PORTION OF ASSOCIATED FLOW
FIELD.

AT SFC...ELONGATED/DIFFUSE LOW -- NOW ANALYZED ON COLD FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE BAND OVER ARKLATEX AREA -- WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO DISCRETE
CYCLONE AND DEEPEN REMAINDER DAY-1. LOW THEN SHOULD OCCLUDE INVOF
WRN TN/SRN KY EARLY DAY-2...THEN EJECT NEWD OVER NRN APPALACHIANS BY
END OF PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SEWD
ACROSS WRN GULF...EWD ACROSS DEEP S...AND ENEWD ACROSS SRN
APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC REGION.

...SERN CONUS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION...
ALTHOUGH A FEW UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN...POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR
ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT ESPECIALLY FROM SRN/CENTRAL GA NEWD
ALONG PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CAROLINAS. TORNADOES ALSO ARE A
GROWING CONCERN. CURRENT 45% TOTAL SVR PROBABILITIES FALL JUST
SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR CATEGORICAL MDT RISK. HOWEVER...UPGRADE MAY
BE NEEDED TO MDT RISK FOR UPCOMING DAY-1 OUTLOOKS VALID THIS PERIOD.


MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS AL/TN...INVOF SFC COLD FRONT.
BAND OF STG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD
ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF SRN GA DURING
DAY...THEN ACROSS CAROLINAS/VA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
AS MIDLEVEL WAVE EJECTS NEWD AND TROUGHING BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE NORMAL TO MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND...INCREASING BULK SHEAR AND ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR
FORMATION OF BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES WITHIN PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND.
DAMAGING WIND IS LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES MAINLY IN MESOCIRCULATIONS ACCOMPANYING BOWS/LEWPS.
FCST HODOGRAPHS IN LOW LEVELS ALSO ARE LARGE AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADO THREAT -- E.G. 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN MANY AREAS E OF SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER
CAROLINAS...SWWD TO SRN GA. DISCRETE TSTMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD
OF MAIN FRONTAL BAND COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES AS WELL...THOUGH FOCI
FOR ANY SUCH ACTIVITY REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM.

MAIN CONCERNS INVOLVE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH MRGL LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND AIR MASS MODIFICATION STILL ONGOING ACROSS THOSE PORTIONS
OF ATLANTIC AND NERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT SHOULD SUPPLY TRAJECTORIES
FOR DAY-2 CONVECTIVE INFLOW. DEW POINTS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOW-MID
60S ALONG NERN GULF COAST AND NEARBY PORTIONS NRN FL/SRN GA...WITH
LOW 60S POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS CAROLINAS...AND 50S FARTHER N ACROSS
WRN SHORE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND PERHAPS SERN PA. SFC HEATING WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER SERN GA AND PORTIONS CAROLINAS...WHERE GREATEST SVR
PROBABILITIES ARE DRAWN...AND WHERE FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD ENCOUNTER
SUITABLY DESTABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER. BAND OF STRONGEST LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE AIR MASS WITH NWD/NEWD EXTENT
AND WITH TIME DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING NWD EXTENT
OF THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 03/03/2008

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