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WacoWx wrote:Is there any chance the atmosphere over DFW can recuperate after this first round in order for us to see a 4" heavy rain event this afternoon/tonight? I feel like it never really recovered after Sunday afternoon even though the totals are going to be close to what they expected. I thought tonight was supposed to be the main event?
Ya'll don't think we are going to get much rain here?bubba hotep wrote:WacoWx wrote:Is there any chance the atmosphere over DFW can recuperate after this first round in order for us to see a 4" heavy rain event this afternoon/tonight? I feel like it never really recovered after Sunday afternoon even though the totals are going to be close to what they expected. I thought tonight was supposed to be the main event?
Have to wait and see what FWD does with the afternoon update but the 12z hi-res guidance doesn't really support the additional 3-6" for DFW. With that said, the ULL is still back over New Mexico and the air mass south of DFW is pretty juiced up. The problem is that most guidance shows a MCS forming and moving through SE TX and that typically chokes off moisture flow into N. Texas.
rwfromkansas wrote:I'm at 2.25 for this rain event. Not bad, but it will have to rain a LOT tonight to get to even 4 inches.
Some folks near the coast will end up over a foot, but it seems like the maximums in these events often move around from where they were expected.
starsfan65 wrote:Ya'll don't think we are going to get much rain here?bubba hotep wrote:WacoWx wrote:Is there any chance the atmosphere over DFW can recuperate after this first round in order for us to see a 4" heavy rain event this afternoon/tonight? I feel like it never really recovered after Sunday afternoon even though the totals are going to be close to what they expected. I thought tonight was supposed to be the main event?
Have to wait and see what FWD does with the afternoon update but the 12z hi-res guidance doesn't really support the additional 3-6" for DFW. With that said, the ULL is still back over New Mexico and the air mass south of DFW is pretty juiced up. The problem is that most guidance shows a MCS forming and moving through SE TX and that typically chokes off moisture flow into N. Texas.
bubba hotep wrote:starsfan65 wrote:Ya'll don't think we are going to get much rain here?bubba hotep wrote:
Have to wait and see what FWD does with the afternoon update but the 12z hi-res guidance doesn't really support the additional 3-6" for DFW. With that said, the ULL is still back over New Mexico and the air mass south of DFW is pretty juiced up. The problem is that most guidance shows a MCS forming and moving through SE TX and that typically chokes off moisture flow into N. Texas.
For the most part. FWD cut expected totals from widespread 4-6" back to 1-3" and even that might be a stretch. I think they mostly left the Flash Flood watch up for show even though they mention "saturated soils" which is true but don't think we see enough rain to trigger any additional flash flooding in DFW. In the end this is a good thing but outside of that one isolated cell that dumped 5"+ right over Richardson, the event has mostly fallen flat, esp considering widespread 6-8" from multiple strong MCS was the original forecast for N. Texas.
Cpv17 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:starsfan65 wrote:Ya'll don't think we are going to get much rain here?
For the most part. FWD cut expected totals from widespread 4-6" back to 1-3" and even that might be a stretch. I think they mostly left the Flash Flood watch up for show even though they mention "saturated soils" which is true but don't think we see enough rain to trigger any additional flash flooding in DFW. In the end this is a good thing but outside of that one isolated cell that dumped 5"+ right over Richardson, the event has mostly fallen flat, esp considering widespread 6-8" from multiple strong MCS was the original forecast for N. Texas.
You guys in NTX got screwed.
bubba hotep wrote:Cpv17 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
For the most part. FWD cut expected totals from widespread 4-6" back to 1-3" and even that might be a stretch. I think they mostly left the Flash Flood watch up for show even though they mention "saturated soils" which is true but don't think we see enough rain to trigger any additional flash flooding in DFW. In the end this is a good thing but outside of that one isolated cell that dumped 5"+ right over Richardson, the event has mostly fallen flat, esp considering widespread 6-8" from multiple strong MCS was the original forecast for N. Texas.
You guys in NTX got screwed.
N. Texas as a whole has had a pretty wet Spring, so we didn't need a lot of extra rain. It's just interesting to see such a big forecast bust. Orgianlly, today was a D3 Mod Risk for excessive rain
***Dangerous flash flood event likely tonight-Wednesday night over SE TX.***
Short range models have become increasingly consistent today in suggesting the development of a corridor of slow moving excessive rainfall this evening into early Wednesday from roughly Conroe to Hempstead to Columbus that slowly moves east and south with time. Given the potential for an east-west or NE to SW line of training thunderstorms with strong low level inflow off the Gulf of Mexico is historically a dangerous flash flood setup for this area.
Where exactly the line anchors or trains for any extended period of time is questionable, but given moisture profiles, significant short duration rainfall totals of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible leading to rapid onset flash flooding.
There has been little change in the overall forecasted rainfall amounts today and would not be surprised if someone in SE TX sees 10-15 inches over the next 36 hours.
Expected rainfall rates and totals will likely push some creeks and bayous toward their banks and in some cases overbanks resulting in more significant widespread flooding. While this threat appears greatest north of I-10…the entire county and area is at risk.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
jasons2k wrote:Looks primed to dump across SE Texas tonight. Stay weather aware!
bubba hotep wrote:21z HRRR blanks DFW but FWD still has 90% Heavy Rain up in the forecast
Current obs are very high cloud bases with some virga, indicative of dry air still hanging around.
Also, shows areas of 6-7" of rain for SE & Coastal Texas.
https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021051821/018/qpf_acc.us_sc.png
