Texas Fall 2017

[Ntxw]

November North American snowfall coverage is running much above normal. Judah Cohen has a good chart. The other year that sticks out like a sore thumb is 2014 (Nuri cold). 2013 was also pretty close. Just a reminder cold is not too far away

 https://twitter.com/judah47/status/927539789473177600




Daily current



Normal



So what cold there is has really been focused over Canada vs Siberia. It's not terribly cold up there now (-10s) but in a week or so a large swath of -20s and -30s should be making a presence in NW and W Canada.

GFS has been hinting at some big blocking over the Arctic and Kara/Barents seas into Greenland middle month. If the Pacific plays nicely we may time it well enough for a major front near Thanksgiving.

[starsfan65]

Not much, it's settled where it is most of today, perhaps slightly further south and east. NAM is capturing it well, has DFW in the 50s tomorrow and 40s Wednesday. It is a tale of two worlds right now in the metroplex. Some feels like September while others November. It will blast through the rest of Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening as height rises.

What is the difference in Temperatures in DFW?

Almost 10-20F between neighboring counties

If you are north of the front, you are cooler.

[Brent]

3km NAM has mid 40s and widespread rain all day Wednesday Widespread amounts near an inch.

Also in the 50s all day tomorrow

[Ntxw]

I have some family in Atlanta area who is complaining that their record high of 78 for the day could be broken or tied. Much hoopla for that warmth .

Some parts of N and W Texas could be seeing some near 50F temp difference between over the weekend and Wednesday

[Yukon Cornelius]

57 60 63 67 74

In that order Denton, Fort Worth, DFW Airport, Dallas, Rockwall currently almost a 20F difference between locations. Some 40s even further NW around Wichita Falls

http://i64.tinypic.com/11boyf4.gif

48, 20 min NE of Wichita Falls.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at the GFS and the potential for blocking near Turkey week. Ntx, staring at the wave train and the setup, is this a typical La nina trait? Is it possible if you have lower heights in the NW territories, this can help promote higher heights around Greenland. The setup around Thanksgiving looks like a very good one for us.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the GFS and the potential for blocking near Turkey week. Ntx, staring at the wave train and the setup, is this a typical La nina trait? Is it possible if you have lower heights in the NW territories, this can help promote higher heights around Greenland. The setup around Thanksgiving looks like a very good one for us.

Lower heights in the NW territories is a common feature in La Nina. It's why Canada is very cold during -ENSO events. The blocking over the Atlantic/Greenland side is more random, possibly some correlation with low solar. It would be helpful to slow the pattern down with the Davis straits/Greenland block so that way all that cold in Canada can bleed south. It's not a pattern that brings record cold, but gradual cooling that hangs around. A quicker, sharp dump of cold air mass would be associated with height rises in the EPO/PNA region as long as it stays near or off the west coast.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at the GFS and the potential for blocking near Turkey week. Ntx, staring at the wave train and the setup, is this a typical La nina trait? Is it possible if you have lower heights in the NW territories, this can help promote higher heights around Greenland. The setup around Thanksgiving looks like a very good one for us.

Lower heights in the NW territories is a common feature in La Nina. It's why Canada is very cold during -ENSO events. The blocking over the Atlantic/Greenland side is more random, possibly some correlation with low solar. It would be helpful to slow the pattern down with the Davis straits/Greenland block so that way all that cold in Canada can bleed south. It's not a pattern that brings record cold, but gradual cooling that hangs around. A quicker, sharp dump of cold air mass would be associated with height rises in the EPO/PNA region as long as it stays near or off the west coast.

All signs are pointing to the Pacific ridging to reside pretty far NW this year so the Atlantic blocking will be needed for cold for most of the winter. Because of that I think we will have to wait until January or so for sustained cold. Though periodically we will likely see the Pacific ridging shifting east across Alaska like we are hoping for around TDay to bring a quick dump of Arctic air from NW Canada.

[starsfan65]

Looking at the GFS and the potential for blocking near Turkey week. Ntx, staring at the wave train and the setup, is this a typical La nina trait? Is it possible if you have lower heights in the NW territories, this can help promote higher heights around Greenland. The setup around Thanksgiving looks like a very good one for us.

Lower heights in the NW territories is a common feature in La Nina. It's why Canada is very cold during -ENSO events. The blocking over the Atlantic/Greenland side is more random, possibly some correlation with low solar. It would be helpful to slow the pattern down with the Davis straits/Greenland block so that way all that cold in Canada can bleed south. It's not a pattern that brings record cold, but gradual cooling that hangs around. A quicker, sharp dump of cold air mass would be associated with height rises in the EPO/PNA region as long as it stays near or off the west coast.

Are they predicting 50's for highs tomorrow?

[gboudx]

Lower heights in the NW territories is a common feature in La Nina. It's why Canada is very cold during -ENSO events. The blocking over the Atlantic/Greenland side is more random, possibly some correlation with low solar. It would be helpful to slow the pattern down with the Davis straits/Greenland block so that way all that cold in Canada can bleed south. It's not a pattern that brings record cold, but gradual cooling that hangs around. A quicker, sharp dump of cold air mass would be associated with height rises in the EPO/PNA region as long as it stays near or off the west coast.

Are they predicting 50's for highs tomorrow?

Who's "they"? And for what area are you asking about the highs tomorrow? You can update your profile to include your location so we know what area you live in.

[starsfan65]

Lower heights in the NW territories is a common feature in La Nina. It's why Canada is very cold during -ENSO events. The blocking over the Atlantic/Greenland side is more random, possibly some correlation with low solar. It would be helpful to slow the pattern down with the Davis straits/Greenland block so that way all that cold in Canada can bleed south. It's not a pattern that brings record cold, but gradual cooling that hangs around. A quicker, sharp dump of cold air mass would be associated with height rises in the EPO/PNA region as long as it stays near or off the west coast.

Are they predicting 50's for highs tomorrow?

Who's "they"? And for what area are you asking about the highs tomorrow? You can update your profile to include your location so we know what area you live in.

For DFW?

[gboudx]

The NWS is forecasting low to mid 60's, but do mention in their discussion the high could stay in the 50's.

If the NAM 2 meter T`s are to verify, mid 50s for highs are more probable as far south as the I-20 corridor!

I guess tomorrow could be one of those days where the high temp is realized early in the day, with falling temps. Either way, it's not the 80s or 90's.

[starsfan65]

The NWS is forecasting low to mid 60's, but do mention in their discussion the high could stay in the 50's.

If the NAM 2 meter T`s are to verify, mid 50s for highs are more probable as far south as the I-20 corridor!

I guess tomorrow could be one of those days where the high temp is realized early in the day, with falling temps. Either way, it's not the 80s or 90's.

Thank Goodness!! I am tired of the 80's and 90's!!

[Ntxw]

Surface front is now on the move and well south of DFW making its way through Waco, and eventually central and SE Texas tomorrow. Short range hi-res guidance is pretty consolidated on 50s tomorrow and given cloud cover and cold air advection via height rises I'd side with them. I suspect the forecast trend will be down with it.

Weds cold, rainy, and raw. Gumbo weather! QPF from 0z NAM

[starsfan65]

Surface front is now on the move and well south of DFW making its way through Waco, and eventually central and SE Texas tomorrow. Short range hi-res guidance is pretty consolidated on 50s tomorrow and given cloud cover and cold air advection via height rises I'd side with them. I suspect the forecast trend will be down with it.

Weds cold, rainy, and raw. Gumbo weather! QPF from 0z NAM

We will say an inch of rain is a good prediction.

[Brent]

Interesting on the NAM most of the rain is later Wednesday and Wednesday Night especially, not earlier as originally forecast

[starsfan65]

Interesting on the NAM most of the rain is later Wednesday and Wednesday Night especially, not earlier as originally forecast

What about the temperatures?

[Brent]

Interesting on the NAM most of the rain is later Wednesday and Wednesday Night especially, not earlier as originally forecast

What about the temperatures?

Temps around 50 in DFW, give or take a degree or two

[starsfan65]

Interesting on the NAM most of the rain is later Wednesday and Wednesday Night especially, not earlier as originally forecast

What about the temperatures?

Temps around 50 in DFW, give or take a degree or two

Most of the day in the 40's.

[starsfan65]

What about the temperatures?

Temps around 50 in DFW, give or take a degree or two

Most of the day in the 40's.

How late?