STORM2K

rwfromkansas wrote:

ElectricStorm wrote:https://twitter.com/evan_bentley/status/1784202789461110802?t=nD_lTveoN5eVGnT0hZvz2A&s=19

Is this saying the cap is weaker than the models expected in OK?

Yes which unlike most events lately would likely help this event be worse. Would help keep storms discrete while also preventing more morning convection.

South Texas Storms wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:The flash flood watch is weird for DFW considering it’s a squall line. Most will get under 2 inches, many under an inch.

Agreed. I'm expecting 0.50-1.50" average amounts for DFW. Surprised NWS FWD is calling for widespread 2-3". Seems quite bullish based on the latest data.

Some of the 00z guidance was pretty aggressive with rainfall totals across NTX. We all know how wacky CAMs can be and they could flip back wetter at 18z.

SPC still aggressive in latest update. Not a bunch of convection in the prime area mucking things up with the stuff behind coming in slowly.

If tonight’s line in DFW moves slow like that, it could still rain a lot.

Cpv17 wrote:Weird the SPC has DFW in an enhanced risk and y’all are talking like y’all are barely gonna get anything outta it. That doesn’t make much sense.

The ENH is primarily in place because of the high svr potential for any storms that might fire. However, the chance that storms fire appears to be low.

bubba hotep wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Weird the SPC has DFW in an enhanced risk and y’all are talking like y’all are barely gonna get anything outta it. That doesn’t make much sense.

The ENH is primarily in place because of the high svr potential for any storms that might fire. However, the chance that storms fire appears to be low.

ENH also doesn't always mean tornados. Higher probability of winds, and some hail with a line also qualifies, it's about odds of severe weather modes. We're already under wind advisory as is, so lots of wind potential with the line.

Looks like FWD is scrubbing afternoon coverage after having it at 50% in the AM package.

My area has stayed dry so far these past few days we will see what happens.

HockeyTx82 wrote:https://m.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley

Can you summarize for those without facebook?

PDS watch out and includes WF.

And a update from FWD:

In our area, latest RAP objective analysis indicates MLCAPE
greater than 3000 J/kg at this time with some capping remaining.
An aircraft sounding from 11:30 am indicated a deep moist boundary
layer with around 70 J/kg of MLCIN remaining. This may be
sufficient to keep convection at a minimum across North Texas
through the afternoon. Mesoscale domain visible satellite imagery
show a generally unimpressive CU field across the region at this
time. For now, we`ll keep PoPs generally around 20% through the
afternoon.

Cpv17 wrote:Weird the SPC has DFW in an enhanced risk and y’all are talking like y’all are barely gonna get anything outta it. That doesn’t make much sense.

So in theory, shear & moisture are more than favorable for high-end surface-based storms *IF* the timing were to coincide with favorable surface instability and *IF* there were a trigger mechanism that's defined enough to break through the cap.

But if the trends this season are any sign, DFW's gonna DFW with a fairly underwhelming event.

Not necessarily a bad thing since it means far less damage to property & far fewer lives at risk in such a large population center (as discussed several posts ago), but that's also the reason why expectations are quite low.

Anti-freeze wrote:

HockeyTx82 wrote:https://m.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley

Can you summarize for those without facebook?

I don't have facebook and i'm able to view it.

I would copy paste, but I'm having trouble doing so. Not sure if it's the website. Basic summary is what we've been talking about here. High potential, but low probability squall line blowing through tonight if nothing ahead of time manages to get going.

For Oklahoma, one hard thing to predict is storm modes. A lot of scattered activity, semi quasi linear can also cause some issues of not fully taking on the potential. Not saying this will happen but it's often one of the toughest to forecast with severe weather. A few discrete cells like what happened yesterday can overperform, while the opposite can happen as well with too much activity.

Taliban about to take over OKC and Wichita:

 https://twitter.com/stormchasing/status/1784234761675735512

South Texas Storms wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:The flash flood watch is weird for DFW considering it’s a squall line. Most will get under 2 inches, many under an inch.

Agreed. I'm expecting 0.50-1.50" average amounts for DFW. Surprised NWS FWD is calling for widespread 2-3". Seems quite bullish based on the latest data.

These rainfall projections get quite tricky in part because it's highly contingent upon storms training over a specific area for a long time, which even under the more ideal setups is hard to achieve due to the nature of convection, with it being heavily influenced storm outflows & the ability for them to maintain their updrafts for extended periods.

Ntxw wrote:For Oklahoma, one hard thing to predict is storm modes. A lot of scattered activity, semi quasi linear can also cause some issues of not fully taking on the potential. Not saying this will happen but it's often one of the toughest to forecast with severe weather. A few discrete cells like what happened yesterday can overperform, while the opposite can happen as well with too much activity.

Yeah I feel like I haven't seen a setup like this since I've been in Tulsa but on the other hand I do think that eventually especially once it gets east of OKC it's gonna favor linear for sure. The question is can something get going ahead of the line for Tulsa I think

snownado wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Weird the SPC has DFW in an enhanced risk and y’all are talking like y’all are barely gonna get anything outta it. That doesn’t make much sense.

So in theory, shear & moisture are more than favorable for high-end surface-based storms *IF* the timing were to coincide with favorable surface instability and *IF* there were a trigger mechanism that's defined enough to break through the cap.

But if the trends this season are any sign, DFW's gonna DFW with a fairly underwhelming event.

Not necessarily a bad thing since it means far less damage to property & far fewer lives at risk in such a large population center (as discussed several posts ago), but that's also the reason why expectations are quite low.

Yeah with today’s potential, I don’t mind sitting this one out. I do think tonight’s squall line has some chance to be fairly potent though. 4-5am arrival isn’t exactly ideal timing, but the depicted environment is rather impressive for that time, with sufficient instability, minimal capping and high SRH values. Spinups would definitely be possible if the line holds together til then.

One thing nagging at me right now though is that there are storms out in west Texas that the CAMs are struggling to depict. I wonder if this is any indication that the cap may be more breakable south of the red river than expected. Probably doesn’t mean much but just a thought.

Ntxw wrote:For Oklahoma, one hard thing to predict is storm modes. A lot of scattered activity, semi quasi linear can also cause some issues of not fully taking on the potential. Not saying this will happen but it's often one of the toughest to forecast with severe weather. A few discrete cells like what happened yesterday can overperform, while the opposite can happen as well with too much activity.

I think that's probably why they haven't pulled the trigger on a high risk yet but the HRRR seems to be trending towards a more discrete/semi-discrete mode so we'll see

ElectricStorm wrote:

Ntxw wrote:For Oklahoma, one hard thing to predict is storm modes. A lot of scattered activity, semi quasi linear can also cause some issues of not fully taking on the potential. Not saying this will happen but it's often one of the toughest to forecast with severe weather. A few discrete cells like what happened yesterday can overperform, while the opposite can happen as well with too much activity.

I think that's probably why they haven't pulled the trigger on a high risk yet but the HRRR seems to be trending towards a more discrete/semi-discrete mode so we'll see

Timing was ideal at 500H yesterday. Neg tilt ejection of the ULL out into the plains during the best peak, with good low levels in place across IA and NE. Ejection today is later tonight with the best dynamics. The repeating phrase we hear is 'IF, something fires ahead' which it will but not at the right times for the most ideal period. But that if is contingent on timing of the dynamics allowing breaking of the cap earlier.

cheezyWXguy wrote:

snownado wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Weird the SPC has DFW in an enhanced risk and y’all are talking like y’all are barely gonna get anything outta it. That doesn’t make much sense.

So in theory, shear & moisture are more than favorable for high-end surface-based storms *IF* the timing were to coincide with favorable surface instability and *IF* there were a trigger mechanism that's defined enough to break through the cap.

But if the trends this season are any sign, DFW's gonna DFW with a fairly underwhelming event.

Not necessarily a bad thing since it means far less damage to property & far fewer lives at risk in such a large population center (as discussed several posts ago), but that's also the reason why expectations are quite low.

Yeah with today’s potential, I don’t mind sitting this one out. I do think tonight’s squall line has some chance to be fairly potent though. 4-5am arrival isn’t exactly ideal timing, but the depicted environment is rather impressive for that time, with sufficient instability, minimal capping and high SRH values. Spinups would definitely be possible if the line holds together til then.

One thing nagging at me right now though is that there are storms out in west Texas that the CAMs are struggling to depict. I wonder if this is any indication that the cap may be more breakable south of the red river than expected. Probably doesn’t mean much but just a thought.

The thing with QLCS setups such as the one late tonight / early tomorrow morning is that they have the tendency to (very quickly) become outflow dominant, with the inflow of the storms getting cut off and the intensity of their downdrafts being muted despite an otherwise ideal background environment for organized convection.

On the other hand though, you do occasionally see instances such as what took place on Eastern Oklahoma yesterday morning.