#742 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Oct 08, 2015 11:00 pm
SO CLOSE......Yet so far.
Feast or famine.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1046 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
IN SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN KINNEY AND
MAVERICK COUNTIES...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
IN VAL VERDE...ZAVALA...AND UVALDE COUNTIES THROGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO
4-5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN KINNEY AND MAVERICK
COUNTIES WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE BY 9-12Z AS THE
BROADER LOW RETROGRADES INTO MEXICO AND THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WEAKENS
TOWARDS SUNRISE. POP AND WX GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THESE CHANGES. MORE DETAILS ARE GIVEN BELOW....
A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS LOCATED IN EASTERN KINNEY COUNTY
AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY THAT HAD BEEN
PROPGATING EAST IS NOW BEGINNING TO STALL ASIDE FROM A WEAK BOWING
SEGMENT IN WESTERN ZAVALA COUNTY. NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS LINE JUST SOUTH OF EAGLE
PASS INTO MEXICO...AND THIS MAY SET UP A LINE OF TRAINING STORMS
THAT WILL DUMP AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS OF AN ADDITIONAL 4-5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO
WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 4-5 INCH TOTALS THAT
HAS FALLEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KINNEY COUNTY AND NW CORNER
OF MAVERICK COUNTY. MUCH OF THE WATER THAT HAS FALLEN THUS FAR
WILL DRAIN SOUTH TOWARDS EAGLE PASS WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THUS...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN KINNEY COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAVERICK COUNTY
ALL THE WAY TO EAGLE PASS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FALLS UPSTREAM
WITH TRAINING SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT RAINFALL TRENDS EXTEND FURTHER EAST THAN ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE 12Z EURO AND LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE HANDLED THINGS RELATIVELY WELL. IN GENERAL...A STRONG 20-30
KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE IN AN AREA OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.7-1.8 INCH PWATS INTO THE AREA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
TRAINING CELLS. A WEAK MCV CIRCULATION MAY BE TRYING TO SET UP
OVER SE KINNEY-NE MAVERICK COUNTY...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WELL SINCE THIS WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INFLOW
FEEDING INTO NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO MAVERICK COUNTY AND
COAHUILA MEXICO. THE WESTERN PARTS OF ZAVALA AND UVALDE COUNTIES
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WELL AS THIS STORM SLIDES FURTHER EAST.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM OVER MUCH OF
VAL VERDE AND TERRELL COUNTIES AND COAHUILA MEXICO DUE TO PVA
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS
LOW HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...BUT IT SHOULD
STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH PVA AT MIDLEVELS TO SUPPORT LIFT FROM A
BROADER PERSPECTIVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS
COUNTIES THAT MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AS WELL...AND WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE CONDITIONS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THIS SUPPORT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE
BROADER LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST BY 9-12Z.
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. Certainly don't mind a 1993 late October redux
That doesn't look like a forecast, it says low frequency analogs of set years picked
