Texas Spring 2026

[Brent]

Lol we apparently had a spinup somewhere at 10pm out of absolutely nowhere

That is twice for us in the last 6 weeks... DFW can take it now

I've never even had a year with two scares that I can remember here... And it's only mid April like this isn't even our peak season. This is when usually Dixie is going off

Y’all are gonna get clobbered later today lol

Maybe we'll see... They seem to think it's more southeast today. At least it probably comes through a lot earlier? The HRRR is heavily focused to the southeast for sure

Then again it's been like good luck figuring this weather out there was absolutely nothing going on before that spinup here and it was already past us before the sirens went off. It was bizarre

Also I've seen absolutely no damage in the city... They had to go somewhere else for a live shot. If that thing touched down where radar said it was it would be wall to wall coverage

Now Friday has a lot more hype

[wxman22]

Here we go again. What will the dryline bring today? lol

[rwfromkansas]

Is today the day for DFW?

Nope.

[TomballEd]

Is today the day for DFW?

Nope.

Marginal risk might playout. I know I was all depressed last week about the heavy rain missing us and 3 of 4 days when precip chances were low we got good rain, 4 inches in one day.

IIRC in Austin, like the late May or early H=June day in 1994 I was taking my Petroleum Project Finance final (build spreadsheets, calculate risk adjusted NPV and IRR, pay taxes) and bubbling storm NW of campus which dumped windshield shattering hail as I found out when my friends and I went to see a movie and the parking lot was full of smashed automotive glass. I always knew when something was forecast and nothing much was forecast.

13Z HRRR gets marginally severe hail as close as Wise and Parker counties and car denting hail near SPS.

[ElectricStorm]

Impressive 12z OUN sounding, certainly what you would expect to see on a severe weather day.

Could be a little veer-back-veer action and combined with a likey linear messy storm mode, tornado threat may be limited but could easily see some QLCS spinups.

Friday still looks interesting but I do have concerns about capping. Shear vectors are much more perpendicular to the dryline compared to yesterday and today which would be more favorable for discrete supercell development if they can break the cap.

[Ntxw]

Is today the day for DFW?

Nope.

Marginal risk might playout. I know I was all depressed last week about the heavy rain missing us and 3 of 4 days when precip chances were low we got good rain, 4 inches in one day.

IIRC in Austin, like the late May or early H=June day in 1994 I was taking my Petroleum Project Finance final (build spreadsheets, calculate risk adjusted NPV and IRR, pay taxes) and bubbling storm NW of campus which dumped windshield shattering hail as I found out when my friends and I went to see a movie and the parking lot was full of smashed automotive glass. I always knew when something was forecast and nothing much was forecast.

13Z HRRR gets marginally severe hail as close as Wise and Parker counties and car denting hail near SPS.

What's a year or two of insurance increases to recoup losses regionwide? .

[HockeyTx82]

Nope.

Marginal risk might playout. I know I was all depressed last week about the heavy rain missing us and 3 of 4 days when precip chances were low we got good rain, 4 inches in one day.

IIRC in Austin, like the late May or early H=June day in 1994 I was taking my Petroleum Project Finance final (build spreadsheets, calculate risk adjusted NPV and IRR, pay taxes) and bubbling storm NW of campus which dumped windshield shattering hail as I found out when my friends and I went to see a movie and the parking lot was full of smashed automotive glass. I always knew when something was forecast and nothing much was forecast.

13Z HRRR gets marginally severe hail as close as Wise and Parker counties and car denting hail near SPS.

What's a year or two of insurance increases to recoup losses regionwide? .

Well it's looking like Denton County might get in the action later which would impact me, but I'm not sure of the severity of what it's showing. The discrete cells seem to be disappearing on runs and more of a quick linear line moving through maybe. Anybody else care to check my thoughts?

Also of note there's some returns on the Radar and the clouds are holding pretty thick, so I'm not sure how much energy we would have in this area would have later.

[Ntxw]

Marginal risk might playout. I know I was all depressed last week about the heavy rain missing us and 3 of 4 days when precip chances were low we got good rain, 4 inches in one day.

IIRC in Austin, like the late May or early H=June day in 1994 I was taking my Petroleum Project Finance final (build spreadsheets, calculate risk adjusted NPV and IRR, pay taxes) and bubbling storm NW of campus which dumped windshield shattering hail as I found out when my friends and I went to see a movie and the parking lot was full of smashed automotive glass. I always knew when something was forecast and nothing much was forecast.

13Z HRRR gets marginally severe hail as close as Wise and Parker counties and car denting hail near SPS.

What's a year or two of insurance increases to recoup losses regionwide? .

Well it's looking like Denton County might get in the action later which would impact me, but I'm not sure of the severity of what it's showing. The discrete cells seem to be disappearing on runs and more of a quick linear line moving through maybe. Anybody else care to check my thoughts?

Also of note there's some returns on the Radar and the clouds are holding pretty thick, so I'm not sure how much energy we would have in this area would have later.

Areas to the west may see some isolated to scattered severe weather this afternoon, for most of us in the population center will likely be after dark a more congealed area, especially on the north side. Typical April thunderstorms.

Bigger story is this weekend! Saturday is 50s for highs and 40s for lows, with below normal temps lasting through early next week.

[Stratton23]

Next week could potentially be very stormy/ wet and cooler than average with a west based - NAO block retrograding into central canada, flooding may become more of a concern next week as models are hinting at a slow moving storm system that could get trapped under neath blocking in canada

[Gotwood]

I would just like some rain for my garden. Guess we will see.

[TomballEd]

Watch issuance probs 80%


/

[HockeyTx82]

So is the Tornado watch that just went up based off that meso discussion that looked like it was down in Texas and Oklahoma but they opted to go Red River North?

[TomballEd]

So is the Tornado watch that just went up based off that meso discussion that looked like it was down in Texas and Oklahoma but they opted to go Red River North?

That is what it looks like.

[wxman22]

I’m currently getting some dime size to nickel size hail with crazy heavy rain right now!

[Ntxw]

Big GFS upgrade in time for next winter. Not just minor tweaks but significant coupling of land, sea, and air.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=125240

We often cite models struggle with terrain, maybe this will help?

[wxman22]

Severe thunderstorm watch issued.

[Brent]

Unless something blows up soon I don't think this is gonna be a repeat of last night here. It's much more focused to the south and east. Also so far it's just marginal hailers

OKC keeps escaping too somehow isn't that amazing. It's their turn also

We shall see what Friday brings. Im not gonna worry about it right now

In other news the sirens went off after the storm was past us last night. They had also malfunctioned in Owasso after the storm in March

For what it's worth it looks like there's a big cluster of storms in DFW around 8-10pm

[wxman22]

Beautiful supercell structures in these storms today up here. We're getting multiple supercells training over the same areas. Somebody's gonna end up with a lot of rain today.

[Quixotic]

That one near archer city looks like a hook.

[CaptinCrunch]

Mostly the radar echoes are not reaching the ground, so another swing and a miss for measurable rain in DFW .20" total over the last week in southern Tarrant. Heaviest shower was while driving down I20 this past Sunday when a nice hard downpour occurred that was about 100 yards wide and last less than 2 minutes.

Sorry guys but after all the hype and pretty colored images of 1"-2" rainfall maps across DFW, it really has been a bust for DFW metro area.