Texas Summer 2023

[cheezyWXguy]

I think North Texas might start to see more "El Nino like" conditions by mid-August. Signs that our nightmare of a summer might be coming to an end are starting to show up in the ensembles and teleconnections.

What indications are you seeing?

[weatherdude1108]

I got 0.04" on Saturday from that 4 minutes of rain. Better than 0".

Last measureable rain before this here at the abode was 0.32" on June 22nd, nearly a month. Camp Mabry has been at 100-105+-degree streak since July 8th, and 32 total 100+-degree days so far. Hottest start to July on record (beating last year's record).

Camp Mabry is consistently 3 to 5 degrees warmer than most places in Austin (Mabry station is in a small area of trees and grass, but also surrounded by highways, thoroughfares, and buildings on all sides, which skews the ambient temp accuracy, but the media never mentions it). The weather service continues to use Mabry as its official weather records location. I know 1925 was another really hot year here before all the heat-trapping infrastructure and less hot background state. That was an anomaly I guess. But in any case, it feels like these past few years, above normal is the new "normal."

Hoping we get relief soon. Even just one pop up thundershower sitting over your area, dropping a quick half-inch to inch of rain would be awesome.

[Ntxw]

I got 0.04" on Saturday from that 4 minutes of rain. Better than 0".

Last measureable rain before this here at the abode was 0.32" on June 22nd, nearly a month. Camp Mabry has been at 100-105+-degree streak since July 8th, and 32 total 100+-degree days so far. Hottest start to July on record (beating last year's record).

Camp Mabry is consistently 3 to 5 degrees warmer than most places in Austin (Mabry station is in a small area of trees and grass, but also surrounded by highways, thoroughfares, and buildings on all sides, which skews the ambient temp accuracy, but the media never mentions it). The weather service continues to use Mabry as its official weather records location. I know 1925 was another really hot year here before all the heat-trapping infrastructure and less hot background state. That was an anomaly I guess. But in any case, it feels like these past few years, above normal is the new "normal."

Hoping we get relief soon. Even just one pop up thundershower sitting over your area, dropping a quick half-inch to inch of rain would be awesome.

It's kind of been opposite of last year. Heat was fast and furious 1st half, this year it's been fast and furious since solstice. Neither has been great! Fall can't come soon enough, at least we are closer to the end of summer...

[weatherdude1108]

I got 0.04" on Saturday from that 4 minutes of rain. Better than 0".

Last measureable rain before this here at the abode was 0.32" on June 22nd, nearly a month. Camp Mabry has been at 100-105+-degree streak since July 8th, and 32 total 100+-degree days so far. Hottest start to July on record (beating last year's record).

Camp Mabry is consistently 3 to 5 degrees warmer than most places in Austin (Mabry station is in a small area of trees and grass, but also surrounded by highways, thoroughfares, and buildings on all sides, which skews the ambient temp accuracy, but the media never mentions it). The weather service continues to use Mabry as its official weather records location. I know 1925 was another really hot year here before all the heat-trapping infrastructure and less hot background state. That was an anomaly I guess. But in any case, it feels like these past few years, above normal is the new "normal."

Hoping we get relief soon. Even just one pop up thundershower sitting over your area, dropping a quick half-inch to inch of rain would be awesome.

It's kind of been opposite of last year. Heat was fast and furious 1st half, this year it's been fast and furious since solstice. Neither has been great! Fall can't come soon enough, at least we are closer to the end of summer...

Yeah, it has been the opposite of last year. I was thinking that we would have a cooler summer based on that (extra moisture in the ground keeps the high pressure at bay). What was I thinking?lol

[Ntxw]

I got 0.04" on Saturday from that 4 minutes of rain. Better than 0".

Last measureable rain before this here at the abode was 0.32" on June 22nd, nearly a month. Camp Mabry has been at 100-105+-degree streak since July 8th, and 32 total 100+-degree days so far. Hottest start to July on record (beating last year's record).

Camp Mabry is consistently 3 to 5 degrees warmer than most places in Austin (Mabry station is in a small area of trees and grass, but also surrounded by highways, thoroughfares, and buildings on all sides, which skews the ambient temp accuracy, but the media never mentions it). The weather service continues to use Mabry as its official weather records location. I know 1925 was another really hot year here before all the heat-trapping infrastructure and less hot background state. That was an anomaly I guess. But in any case, it feels like these past few years, above normal is the new "normal."

Hoping we get relief soon. Even just one pop up thundershower sitting over your area, dropping a quick half-inch to inch of rain would be awesome.

It's kind of been opposite of last year. Heat was fast and furious 1st half, this year it's been fast and furious since solstice. Neither has been great! Fall can't come soon enough, at least we are closer to the end of summer...

Yeah, it has been the opposite of last year. I was thinking that we would have a cooler summer based on that (extra moisture in the ground keeps the high pressure at bay). What was I thinking?lol

I think last year was feedback from the drought early Spring. You could see on 850mb reanalysis the persistent lower atmosphere heat regardless of ridge which was weaker. The heat was localized to the southern plains.

This year is the more traditional massive continental ridge set up in Mexico early and sprawled across the southwest US over time.

[Iceresistance]

Solid streak of double-digit -SOI, hope it comes to fruition in August.

[Brent]

I'm on the beach in the Florida panhandle where it's not even remotely hot(the rip currents are a different story) looking at Tulsas forecast bring on that pattern change

[utpmg]

I got 0.04" on Saturday from that 4 minutes of rain. Better than 0".

Last measureable rain before this here at the abode was 0.32" on June 22nd, nearly a month. Camp Mabry has been at 100-105+-degree streak since July 8th, and 32 total 100+-degree days so far. Hottest start to July on record (beating last year's record).

Camp Mabry is consistently 3 to 5 degrees warmer than most places in Austin (Mabry station is in a small area of trees and grass, but also surrounded by highways, thoroughfares, and buildings on all sides, which skews the ambient temp accuracy, but the media never mentions it). The weather service continues to use Mabry as its official weather records location. I know 1925 was another really hot year here before all the heat-trapping infrastructure and less hot background state. That was an anomaly I guess. But in any case, it feels like these past few years, above normal is the new "normal."

Hoping we get relief soon. Even just one pop up thundershower sitting over your area, dropping a quick half-inch to inch of rain would be awesome.

I look at 1960s data a lot because that was my first full decade in Austin. This years' average high temp for July (103.3 so far) is from 5 to 12.3 degrees hotter than any July in the 1960s.

[cstrunk]

98-100F with no rain in store for the next week+. I'll have to break out the sprinkler for the first time by this weekend.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think bubba may be right about the days of this pattern being numbered. After about 10 days or so, the gefs starts pushing the high a good deal to the west of us, and the last several runs or of the gfs show an actual trough in the midsection of the US with rain chances returning. Still so far out but something worth watching for

[gpsnowman]

I'm on the beach in the Florida panhandle where it's not even remotely hot(the rip currents are a different story) looking at Tulsas forecast bring on that pattern change

I'm in Gadsden Alabama and woke up to 66 degrees this morning. Felt great. Taking a road trip to Charlotte for a funeral. Flying back on Thursday.

[weatherdude1108]

I got 0.04" on Saturday from that 4 minutes of rain. Better than 0".

Last measureable rain before this here at the abode was 0.32" on June 22nd, nearly a month. Camp Mabry has been at 100-105+-degree streak since July 8th, and 32 total 100+-degree days so far. Hottest start to July on record (beating last year's record).

Camp Mabry is consistently 3 to 5 degrees warmer than most places in Austin (Mabry station is in a small area of trees and grass, but also surrounded by highways, thoroughfares, and buildings on all sides, which skews the ambient temp accuracy, but the media never mentions it). The weather service continues to use Mabry as its official weather records location. I know 1925 was another really hot year here before all the heat-trapping infrastructure and less hot background state. That was an anomaly I guess. But in any case, it feels like these past few years, above normal is the new "normal."

Hoping we get relief soon. Even just one pop up thundershower sitting over your area, dropping a quick half-inch to inch of rain would be awesome.

I look at 1960s data a lot because that was my first full decade in Austin. This years' average high temp for July (103.3 so far) is from 5 to 12.3 degrees hotter than any July in the 1960s.

I moved to Austin in 2006, right up the road from SA where I grew up in the 70s and 80s. It was hot in SA no doubt, but not so abnormally hot with cloudless sun for so long a streak for weeks at a time. We'd get some breaks with rain and thundershowers from the late afternoon sea breeze and a few MCS's at times, with puffy cumulus clouds more often than not (at least in June). Not the same weather experience now as I remember it.

[Tejas89]

Mid 100’s and dry for North Texas… we’re locked in now so best get used to it for a while.

The lakes are close to normal and the insane dewpoints have subsided. Silver linings I guess!

[Edwards Limestone]

The runaway +AMO all but guarantees we will have droughts at least 50% of the time in Texas. We are at the PDOs mercy!

[TropicalTundra]

Well, some of the B.C mountains got their first snowfall last night and today is officially Christmas in July. Although weather has been its usual, crappy self.

I would hope in a few weeks we're at least out of the triple digits like Bubba mentioned with a "El-Nino" feel in mid August. We ALL need it. Too much heat and little rain this summer (like always)

[Iceresistance]

I popped 101°F today, this is the 2nd day above 100 this year.

[869MB]

The runaway +AMO all but guarantees we will have droughts at least 50% of the time in Texas. We are at the PDOs mercy!

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT9511DuXlj9-7Fie4sr3eFcFq2rK7kPZihRoe9ZHbqP_gBEgV4JubWMhojmxQaF72NZgg&usqp=CAU

Am I crazy, or are we finally seeing some early signs that this persistent -PDO could be temporarily eroding now? Based upon the latest CDAS SST Anomaly 7-day Change map, we may finally be seeing some significant warming of the waters off of the US West Coast. We shall see if these trends persist through the rest of the Summer into the Fall...

[Ntxw]

The runaway +AMO all but guarantees we will have droughts at least 50% of the time in Texas. We are at the PDOs mercy!

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT9511DuXlj9-7Fie4sr3eFcFq2rK7kPZihRoe9ZHbqP_gBEgV4JubWMhojmxQaF72NZgg&usqp=CAU

Am I crazy, or are we finally seeing some early signs that this persistent -PDO could be temporarily eroding now? Based upon the latest CDAS SST Anomaly 7-day Change map, we may finally be seeing some significant warming of the waters off of the US West Coast. We shall see if these trends persist through the rest of the Summer into the Fall...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

You're not crazy it is happening. It has to because ENSO modulates the PDO. If longer term guidance is correct as others have mentioned and ridging pops further west would only speed up the PDO change.

[bubba hotep]

It's crazy how for the Southern Plains and Deep South the heat this summer has mainly been confined to Texas and Louisiana.

[weatherdude1108]

It's crazy how for the Southern Plains and Deep South the heat this summer has mainly been confined to Texas and Louisiana.

https://i.ibb.co/9wPkBbm/prism-conus-tavg-anom-JJA-2023.png

Yeah. I noticed that when we took a two week road trip starting on July 1st. We stopped in Heavener, OK for the night, then made a brief stop in Fayettville, AR. From there, went to Branson, MO for a week, then stopped back through Little Rock, then stayed in Hot Springs, AR for a few days. The hottest it got on my car thermometer the entire time (in Oklahoma, Texas, and Missouri) was 91. It was mostly in the 80s during that time, with lows in the mid to upper 60s up in Branson and Hot Springs, and the vegetation and trees were so lush and tall! Granted it was more humid, but it was nice to see so much greenery. It rained on us in Arkansas (pretty hard) while we were ziplining, got soaked and chilly!lol

That made me feel more inspired that only a state away you could get away from the Texas blast furnace of 100s and lows near 80.